Posted on 08/13/2004 12:50:06 PM PDT by veronica
You may be right. However Bush won FL in 2000! Remember.
Real Clear Politics projected in October, 2000, that Bush would get 356 electoral votes to Gore's 182.
And Bush would have, if not for the DUI thing.
It is simpler than that. America is not going to elect the most liberal senator from the most liberal state in the country to be President.
Nope, I doublechecked your numbers. It's Bush - 397, Kerry - 141. (Hey, they're as realistic as yours...)
Cook completely missed 2002 and has gone off the deep end in his support for dems this year.
I think Wisc. and Mizzou are going GWB........ In Mizzou they just voted %72 to 28% to protect marriage...Those are huge numbers! And GW needs to play them...
Third reason: Charley.
From a mathematical statement you are correct. But from a public sentiment standpoint, I would have to believe that if something is happening to cause Bush to lose either Florida or (especially) Ohio, then that same "something" will keep him from winning in enough of those other states to be able to make up the difference.
I am confused....After the Dem convenion and the non-bounce for Kerry, all the pundits and polls seemed to be doom and gloom for Kerry-Edwards. Now a few brief days later, it's all over for GWB?! What exactly is going on here?
Exactly. I'm confident Bush will pick up OH, FL, WVA, and NV again this year. He could pick up IA or MN and still win while losing NH. At this point, its still too early to pick a winner. We don't know how the GOP Convention will turn out and the media sophisticates and Kerry Campaign spinners lazily assume Bush will receive little or no bounce out of his Convention. What if there's a spurt of good economic news in September and October? Its too soon to declare Kerry our next President on the basis of summertime polls. The media in particular once all but anointed Howard Dean the Democrats' nominee and he imploded. And they've forgottem THAT embarrassment. This election is still President Bush's to lose.
Not likely for 2 reasons
Crackers
Cubans
Bush will take Florida because the democrat vote will evenly split between between John Kerry, and Pat Buchanan. (Jeb is hard at work, fiendishly designing super ultra confusing triple decker butterfly ballots, not to mention he has some diabolical plan to let some military types to vote...)
You're right.
I think I've finally nailed why I'm hesitant to trust the polls.
I'm being manipulated. I can sense it.
Pollsters keep repeating Iraq is a failure. It is Vietnam. No WMD's. The economy is stagnant. Bush is a liar. Bush is a Failure. Bush is a Divider. People hate Bush. Kerry is tied with Bush. Kerry is making inroads on Commander-In-Chief qualifications. Bush is in trouble. Bush is going to lose. We've lost world respect. Yada yada.
Massive attempts to brainwash the American public. Now, I think I know why the Democrats are confident- but not. They believe these lies have taken hold. They believe the American people have suffiently been worn down. They believe we'll accept anyone other than Bush to make it all stop. This is why they are acting as if they've won the election.
Yet they are still screaming. They are still displaying their irrationality to the public at large. They are still working 24/7 to destroy G.W.'s character in the minds of the public. Why do this if they have the election won?
Simple.
They know their bond to the American people is predicated on a Lie. If they allow the Lie to be replaced by the Truth, they lose overwhelmingly.
They are confident of the strength of a Lie, but they aren't confident about the weakness of the Truth.
Take a look at the attacks on the Swiftboat Veterans. Despite all the power they own at their disposal, they were unable to stop this assault. They were unable to prevent these veterans mission to give the people the Truth. If the American people embrace the Truth, they lose. They have to silence the Truth before it reaches any further into the mainstream.
This election is about the Truth vs a Lie.
I do believe ultimately the Truth prevails, we'll see in the interim of this election if it will triumph in this Presidential cycle. But pundits and Polls cannot predict how this race will result because they cannot predict the strength & weakness of the Lie this far in advance.
I hope he has enough sense to go to Florida and show how much he cares after the hurricane. Kerry will.
I think NJ is off the board. The last five polls show a double-digit lead for Kerry. Just as well, IMO. I'd hate to see the Bush campaign be lured into spending money there, based on the previously tight polling.
Sorry about repeating that expression, I should have read his post more closely.
The rats can't hide him forever.
The only shot he has of winning is taking a vacation in France until after election day.
Not if you count yourself as "someone"--unless you happen to be Dick Morris, but in that case you already said it anyway.
Of course certain federal payments that are made at the discretion of the executive branch might arrive in October.
And the Bush brothers could work a couple of days building a Habitat for Humanity house in one of the affected areas. (Do the Secret Service agents work as spotters when the President is aloft on the roof fastening shingles?)
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