Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

KERRY IS NOT THE FAVORITE
Real Clear Politics.com ^ | 8-14-04 | J. McIntyre

Posted on 08/13/2004 12:50:06 PM PDT by veronica

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-68 next last
To: Republic Rocker
i think he will win MO, and he does have a chance at Wisconsin.
41 posted on 08/13/2004 1:53:40 PM PDT by COURAGE (A charter member of the Grim FReeper Club)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: veronica

What's amazing to me is that he is even close enough to be considered to have a chance to win. How half the country can support that boob at this crucial time is beyond me.

The other half of this country needs to wake up and smell the coffee.


43 posted on 08/13/2004 1:56:29 PM PDT by Reagan is King (The modern definition of 'racist' is someone who is winning an argument with a liberal.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AndyTheBear

LOL.

"unless you happen to be Dick Morris, but in that case you already said it anyway."

I do not enjoy having my toes sucked by prostitutes. And my wife would not like it if I did, nor I may add my children or grandchildren.


44 posted on 08/13/2004 1:57:26 PM PDT by stockpirate (Kerry and The Taxocrates must be defeated! "Kerry wasn't in Cambodia before he was in Cambodia.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 39 | View Replies]

To: BlackRazor
I would have to believe that if something is happening to cause Bush to lose either Florida or (especially) Ohio, then that same "something" will keep him from winning in enough of those other states to be able to make up the difference.

That's the same argument put forth every time concerning the swing states moving together. There's certainly some truth in it, but if that were the case then Dubya would have lost WV and maybe AR last time around. Not to mention FL. Gore had to draw an inside straight last time to win, and he almost did it with the help of a premature FL call. Kerry's in a worse position IMHO.

45 posted on 08/13/2004 1:58:45 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: BonnieJ
What exactly is going on here?

Pundits want attention. Pollsters want to get hired. The media want people to watch. The perception of a close exciting race helps them all.

46 posted on 08/13/2004 1:59:05 PM PDT by AndyTheBear
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: BonnieJ

I am confused....After the Dem convenion and the non-bounce for Kerry, all the pundits and polls seemed to be doom and gloom for Kerry-Edwards. Now a few brief days later, it's all over for GWB?! What exactly is going on here?



Yep no bounce per se for Kerry after the convention and now the run up to the Republican convention Kerry has pulled away and President Bush can't win.... I think you'll begin to see the true position of the electorate in polls sometime about the 1st of October... The conventions will be over, a couple of debates will have been held and the voters that aren't in lockstep with either party will begin to focus on the race.....

Much of the polling shows the race to be within the MOE.... Thus very close or a toss up. If that is correct then 81 days until the election is an eternity as events can certainly change the electorate.....


47 posted on 08/13/2004 1:59:54 PM PDT by deport (Please Flush the Johns......)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 30 | View Replies]

To: veronica
And Bush would have, if not for the DUI thing.

I agree with the article for the most part, except for one thing; the abovementioned October Surprise..

48 posted on 08/13/2004 2:00:38 PM PDT by cardinal4 (John Kerry- "A Hamster Tale..")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: BlackRazor
I think NJ is off the board.

It may well be. That's why it was at the end and with multiple question marks. But talk to me after Labor Day. :-)

49 posted on 08/13/2004 2:01:30 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: veronica
Kerry supporters might ask, "well aren't there other states our man can win to get us over 270?" The problem for the Dems is, what are they? Again, assuming FL and OH are off the table for now, Arkansas, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Louisiana, Colorado and Arizona are not exactly high value targets

Now that the Dems have a real candidate for governor in Missouri, there is a decent chance that they can win the state. All the polling Ive seen has been very close and Kerry and Bush campaigns have both spending a lot of time here.

Virginia has been getting less and less Republican by the year. You got a ton of federal employees and lobbyists living in the northern part of the state. Colorado is in play with Ben Nighthorse Campbell not running for reelection. You can bet the Dems will spending a lot of money on getting out the vote for the Senatorial campaign. Louisiaia has two Democrat Senators so with fraud and a little luck they could come close there if things really go bad for Bush.

Your comment about the difficulty of Kerry winning the new states that he needs (outside of Florida and/or Ohio), also holds true for Bush. Bush won a number of states by small margins. It will almost be as difficult for Bush to hold all the states that he won before if Iraq and the Economy continue to drag him down.

I have a very bad feeling that this election is goign to go to the House of Representatives for resolution. 269-269.

50 posted on 08/13/2004 2:02:36 PM PDT by Dave S
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Republic Rocker
I think Wisc. and Mizzou are going GWB

Yeah, but Bush won MO last time.

51 posted on 08/13/2004 2:02:37 PM PDT by Coop (In memory of a true hero - Pat Tillman)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: cripplecreek
Nobody believes he knows anything about sports.

At least not team sports, as Peter Gammons revealed, and as rugged as he looks in his publicity photos, we know now that he throws like a girl.

52 posted on 08/13/2004 2:02:39 PM PDT by L.N. Smithee (When it comes to newborns getting stabbed in the head, Kerry cares...about drowning hamsters.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: FrankWild
He was a fall back candidate for the Anybody-but-Bush crowd

And Kerry was a successful fallback only because the DemocRat core saw Kerry as a military antiwar candidate. When the Swiftboat Vets charges against Kerry stand as the truth, and Kerry's courage in battle is recognized as only padded tripe, his usefulness as a veteran antiwar hero candidate will be finished. DemocRat Bush haters will stay home in droves swallowing psychogenic medications and alcohol on November 3. The landslide will not be due to votes for the President; it will be due to haters failing to vote against the President.

53 posted on 08/13/2004 2:07:03 PM PDT by TheGeezer (If only I had skin as thick as Ann Coulter, and but half her intelligence...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: veronica
This year, there won't be any boost in the Jewish vote from Lieberman, African-Americans don't seem particularly excited about John Kerry, Florida's a big pro-military state, and George W. Bush will still handily win the Cuban-American vote - especially if Mel Martinez is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate.

The Pentagon is already worried that they are going to have difficult time getting ballots out to the troops in the field (which by the way is where most of them are). In Missouri this has been further complicated by the Dems currently having the results of the election two weeks ago in limbo. Secretary of State cant print absentee ballots until the court case is resolved and that may not be until sometime after Labor Day. Im sure they will figure out a way to get ballots out for Nov 3 but the military on active duty could get disinfranchised.

On Florida, I wouldnt be so optimisitic. Blacks had huge turnout in 2000 but the idiots that bussed them to the polls gave them bad instructions. They told them to vote for Gore and to write in Liebermen. They lost over 25,000 votes statewide because idiot voters voted twice. I find it hard to believe many Republicans would be that stupid.

54 posted on 08/13/2004 2:10:36 PM PDT by Dave S
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Coop
That assumes Dubya doesn't win any of Gore's 2000 states - not very realistic given he's got real shots at taking MN, WI, NM, OR, and maybe PA, MI, IA or WA. Or even NJ???

Bush is behind in all of those states at the moment. I wouldnt count on him winning any of those unless he wins by a landslide.

55 posted on 08/13/2004 2:18:07 PM PDT by Dave S
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: jimfree
"And the Bush brothers could work a couple of days building a Habitat for Humanity house in one of the affected areas."

Even better thaan the Bushes working on a Habitat for Humanity house would be for Kerry to. Can you imagine the pictures of him trying to drive a nail or hang drywall?

56 posted on 08/13/2004 2:21:59 PM PDT by Freemyland
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 40 | View Replies]

To: Rome2000

Love the Grand Canyon in the background. Trouble is, when sKerry was here, all he had to say about it was negative stuff...like the park is a mess, etc. Not a real positive guy! Needless to say, that didn't go over too well with us 'zonies.


57 posted on 08/13/2004 2:29:23 PM PDT by IrishRainy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: veronica
I posted earlier that based on the Missouri, California, and Colorado primary and/or recent election models, the polls are NOT getting the voter turnout at all right. Indeed, only Gallup, who is polling "likely voters" (and who knows G's methology) has had Bush ahead consistently.

The predictive models all are on Bush's side. The polls mixed, but slightly on Kerry's side. Who'se right? Based on what we've seen in Missouri and Colorado, I think that the pollsters are simply (for some reason) not getting their "mix" at all correct.

58 posted on 08/13/2004 2:48:34 PM PDT by LS (CNN is the Amtrak of news.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Coop
It may well be. That's why it was at the end and with multiple question marks. But talk to me after Labor Day.

Actually, I had completely neglected to consider the McGreevey situation when I made that comment. I think if McGreevey could be forced out early enough to trigger a gubernatorial election this November, then things could possibly get interesting again. Otherwise, I think Kerry has enough of an inherent advantage in the state to carry it.

59 posted on 08/13/2004 2:57:42 PM PDT by BlackRazor
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 49 | View Replies]

To: Republic Rocker
In Mizzou they just voted %72 to 28% to protect marriage...Those are huge numbers! And GW needs to play them...

Are there a lot of voters in Mizzou who can't figure out which candidate (party) is most in line with "marriage protection"?

60 posted on 08/13/2004 4:19:13 PM PDT by Onelifetogive
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-68 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson