[Coop]

I like this fairly objective analysis, but I do take issue with one point. The author buys into the "if Bush loses FL or OH he's finished." That assumes Dubya doesn't win any of Gore's 2000 states - not very realistic given he's got real shots at taking MN, WI, NM, OR, and maybe PA, MI, IA or WA.

Or even NJ???

[Republic Rocker]

I think Wisc. and Mizzou are going GWB........ In Mizzou they just voted %72 to 28% to protect marriage...Those are huge numbers! And GW needs to play them...

[BlackRazor]

The author buys into the "if Bush loses FL or OH he's finished." That assumes Dubya doesn't win any of Gore's 2000 states - not very realistic given he's got real shots at taking MN, WI, NM, OR, and maybe PA, MI, IA or WA.

From a mathematical statement you are correct. But from a public sentiment standpoint, I would have to believe that if something is happening to cause Bush to lose either Florida or (especially) Ohio, then that same "something" will keep him from winning in enough of those other states to be able to make up the difference.

[BlackRazor]

Or even NJ???

I think NJ is off the board. The last five polls show a double-digit lead for Kerry. Just as well, IMO. I'd hate to see the Bush campaign be lured into spending money there, based on the previously tight polling.

[Dave S]

That assumes Dubya doesn't win any of Gore's 2000 states - not very realistic given he's got real shots at taking MN, WI, NM, OR, and maybe PA, MI, IA or WA. Or even NJ???

Bush is behind in all of those states at the moment. I wouldnt count on him winning any of those unless he wins by a landslide.