Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000
000 WTNT33 KNHC 131655 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
I'm in Wekiva in Seminole County.
That F-5 killed about 42 people west of us in Winter Garden skipped right over you and me and then laid down again and killed more people in the Sanford area. I will never forget that strange noise as it went overhead.
We need to be very concerned about the tornados. The eye is expected to go over the Orlando area and tornados will be on the perimeter of the eye.
I'm in Winter Park...it is getting very dark out there....
Yep- I'm in Casselberry- it's getting really dark...hang in there neighbor:)
And it's not like there hasn't been a Cat 4 or warm Gulf waters before. Actually this Summer has been cooler than average. The reason hurricanes get this strong is the lack of shear.
Blitzer now putting up a Quinnipiac poll of Kerry leading Bush in FL by 6%.
I know some folks who left Galveston Island to visit relatives in San Antonio (close to 300 miles inland) when [I forget name] tropical storm was predicted to make landfall near Galveston.
It ended up missing Galveston *completely* (weather was bright and sunny in Galveston), but it wandered inland and then dropped a HUGE amount of rain right on San Antonio, causing major flooding and power outages.
My friends were not amused.
Wolf is poll-picking? I'm shocked...
"the hurricane has hit Republican parts of the state".
Blitzer says "Bush needs to be on his best behavior" regarding this event.
This is unconscionable. Nobody's thinking about politics right now.
That F-5 killed about 42 people west of us in Winter Garden skipped right over you and me and then laid down again and killed more people in the Sanford area. I will never forget that strange noise as it went overhead.
Exactly!!! It was un unforgettable night...the sound was unearthly...and I've never seen lightning like that- horizontal AND vertical..purplish glow with it
What idiots. He didn't evacuate this area, the local county commissions made the decision.
If they hadn't evacuated and the hurricane had made a direct hit, there would be far more criticism. Everything west of the Intracoastal Waterway and most of Pinellas County would be under water right now and there could be thousands dead.
They made the right decision. The hurricane didn't make it's turn until around noon today.
We dodged a bullet this time!
Mark for later...
Apparently the lefties are.
I had to turn Blitzer off. Jeb of FNC
They are all about power and now they are out and they want it back worse than ever.
Worse than winning the war, Worse than anything they want their power back.
I'm in northwest Seminole and it's getting dark. I think it's called NIGHT!
It ended up missing Galveston *completely* (weather was bright and sunny in Galveston), but it wandered inland and then dropped a HUGE amount of rain right on San Antonio, causing major flooding and power outages.
My friends were not amused.
I was living in San Antonio when that hurricane came. We did have major flooding and some people were killed because of it. There was also a tornado spawned which took out part of the roof of the VA hospital.
Yep- I'm in Casselberry- it's getting really dark...hang in there neighbor:)
I can't believe we still have power - we have steaks ready to grill when this squall passes, if all goes well. Stay safe.
I'm so glad I'm not one of them.
Likewise if he had evacuated everything within a couple hundred miles of the predicted landfall, "just in case" the hurricane swerved, which is what he would have had to have done to cover all bases.
I wonder how many reporters hanging around Disney World? I would doubt, many because they are probably on their way from Tampa where their experts felt the highest probability was.
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