Posted on 08/11/2004 12:10:12 PM PDT by veronica
Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their second likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the 19 battleground states.
The battleground states are defined as those in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been focusing their paid media efforts throughout the campaign.
Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry’s Vietnam War record.
Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way.
However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.
“Make no mistake -- controversy surrounding potential “dirty laundry” still sells in American politics and this is a sterling example of it. But most surprising is that despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry – especially among crucial undecided voters.
In a close race where every little bit counts, Kerry can’t afford to sustain too many minor hits like this.” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.
You are EXACTLY right.
The major effect of this revelation is not going to be in immediately switching people's minds. It is going to be a nagging thought "I wonder who's telling the truth here?"
Then people will start looking at the other characteristics of the "not Bush" candidate, and THAT is what they will SAY changed their mind. The sKerry camp KNOWS that this is a devastating ad, and that is why they are fighting so hard.
This is going to be a landslide victory for President Bush unless some major negative comes into the mix during these next months. (A terrorist attack does not consititute such a negative.)
.
http://www.swiftvets.com and click on Keep This Ad on the Air
I'm pretty sure that Kerry went to France and participated in round-table discussions with the commies. That would qualify as collaboration with enemy agents. Those talks weren't just war protests. He was protesting in the company of the enemy. The commies loved John Kerry then, and they love him now.
We need few Freeps of FNs at rallys with signs like
"I Saw Kerry and had a SEARING memory---
of LBJ and Carter".
Sweetie Pie Sean must have read our posts...lol.....
http://www.swiftvets.com/ Hey just a million people at $5 apiece will keep this powerful ad running
Kerry will return from his 'sabbatical' to his old job - King at the Capitol Hill Waffle House.
You are welcome. I truly hope we can stop this POS.
Besides Johnny Kerry still held a naval officer's commission when he met with NV & VC representatives in Paris. That's a problem.
Problem is that when Sean is paying attention, he always thinks the call is about him. His book, his religious ferver, his upbringing, aaarrrrggggggghhhhhhhh. If only he would let the caller or the person being interviewed make their case without Sean's interjection of his personal connection.
Yes. Nixon was elected in 1968 and was inaugurated in 1969. LBJ was President in December of 1968.
I actually think there's a good chance that this will snowball- the fact that several, ahem, "mainstream" sources like AP and the Post have written about it give the needed air of legitimacy that others will not be so uncomfortable investigating it and writing about it.
I honestly think Kerry would be more dangerous than the Clintons were- he's much more of a micro-meddler for my liking. Not to mention Wacky Wife...
Does anyone know what the legality is around donating to a group like this if you're not a U.S. citizen? I'm living here as a non-resident alien (trying to get my green card right now) and I'd love to donate to these guys but I know there are issues around, for example, giving money to a political party as a non-citizen. I want to donate but I especially don't want to break the law.
Your point about the hot combat theater is valid. Even more important is that he, in effect, deserted his post. That's because he falsified the records to get two of his three PHs. If he didn't have 3 PHs, he couldn't have deserted his men when he did.
This page
http://www.fabmac.com/releases.html
has a direct link to the document
http://www.fabmac.com/FMA-2004-08-11-Swift-Boat.pdf
which is a pdf, so you have to have adobe pdf doc reader installed. You can get it at adobe.
The specifics are interesting:
“Recently, have you seen, read or heard anything about a TV ad being aired by a group of Vietnam Veterans who question the truthfulness of Sen. John Kerry’s Vietnam War record?”
Overall / 2 Way Undecided / 3 Way Undecided
Yes 57.6% 48.5% 38.3%
No 35.4 42.1 45.1
DK/Refused 7.0 9.4 16.6
ASKED ONLY OF THOSE AWARE: “And did what you saw, read or heard make you MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for John Kerry for President? If it didn’t impact how you would vote, just say so.”
Overall / 2 Way Undecided / 3 Way Undecided
More Likely 19.4% 10.9% 9.5%
No Impact 50.8 51.1 56.2
Less Likely 27.1 29.9 24.1
DK/Refused 2.7 8.0 10.3
Net +/- -7.7% -19.0% -14.6%
Since undecided voters are going to be so critical in this close race, it is HUGE that among undecided voters 20 percentage points more said it was negative than positive. If this stays in the news and a large percentage of undecided voters end up seeing this, it could easily determine the election. 20% of the 10% undecideds would be 2%, a massive impact. And again, this polling was done in the 19 closest states.
Who knows? Since this was a Republican polling firm, if it gets back to W that this story is a positive for him, maybe he will be more supportive, or at least not negative. He knows it would make him look bad if he was too aggressive promoting it, but it may prevent him from repudiating it.
Go swifties!
Yee Haw and Howdy Veronica!
I keep thinking, we still have to depend on these vets, keep asking them to stand in the front, keep asking them to serve. And they just keep doing it.
Kind of humbling, really.
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