Tropical Storm Charley About to Become Hurricane

BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.31 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004

...Charley moving near Jamaica...headed for the Cayman Islands...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a
Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.

 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth.  This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning tonight.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended to
include the Florida Keys east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef including
Florida Bay...and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the
southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach.
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef
including Florida Bay...and from Flamingo northward to Bonita
Beach.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
The Hurricane Watch will likely be extended northward along the
Florida west coast tonight or early Thursday.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 17.0 north...longitude  77.5 west or about   85
miles... 135 km...southwest of Kingston Jamaica.

 
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph
...28 km/hr...and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected
during the next 24 hours.  On this track the center will be passing
south of or very near the southwest coast of Jamaica tonight.  Rain
bands with tropical storm force winds in squalls will affect much
of Jamaica this evening and tonight.  These conditions will begin
to spread over the Cayman Islands early Thursday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near  75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  993 mb...29.32 inches.

 
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica this evening and
tonight...and the Cayman Islands tonight and Thursday morning.

 
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

 
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 77.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

 

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

 
Forecaster Pasch

000
WTNT43 KNHC 112035
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$

Folks (or Freepers)...it is my opinion that Charley will move further WEST than the National Hurricane Center suggests. This looks to be the case based on a number of reasons...1)recent motion has been further west than expected 2)global/tropical models have shifted west 3)ridge remains locked in place above it even with trough coming. Assuming it gets picked up by the trough, landfall looks to be further north...along the Panhandle, Big Bend, or extreme northwest Peninsula. Not south Florida. Another UNlikely scenario is that it misses the trough altogether and gets steered west...towards TEXAS. Doubtful? Heck yeah, do NOT count on it. But it can't be completely discounted. Details in my most recent discussion below. Keep in mind I'm just an amateur...so my opinions are PERSONAL only, NOT to be used for life or death decisions.

IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 August 2004 - 3:10 PM EDT
Revised at 5:00 PM EDT to include recent changes

Tropical Storm Bonnie and recently upgraded Hurricane Charley remain the top story in the tropics today. Both are set to impact land within the forecast period, though it appears Charley will have the greatest impact of the two.

Charley, now a category 1 hurricane, has continued to move on a general west to west-northwest track over the past few hours. This is against the 12-hour forecast motion presented by the National Hurricane Center at 11 AM Eastern Time, which depicted a northwest movement scraping the western tip of Jamaica. Based on recent aircraft recconaissance fixes, the center of the storm is also further south than originally estimated. Both the southward relocation and more westward motion could have major implications on the future track of Charley over the next few days. First of all, this means Jamaica will be spared the strongest portion of the storm further south, though intense rain bands and squally weather will still spread over the island through the next 12 hours. Secondly and more importantly, Charley may not turn as soon as the National Hurricane Center indicates. The west to west-northwest motion can be attributed to a strong ridge of high pressure located north of the system. The western prehiphery of this ridge is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just west of 85 degrees west longitude. This steering flow will hold firmly over the next 36 hours or so until a strong deep-layer trough slices through the Ohio Valley and northern Gulf states. When this occurs, we will begin to see a slow shift in the steering currents as the trough erodes the western flank of the ridge. As a consequence, Charley will make a turn towards the north and become intertwined in strong southerly winds.

There is no reason to argue with the National Hurricane Center regarding whether the storm will turn or not, because it will. The major question that is arising is not whether, but when will Charley turn? Short-term relocations or changes in motion must be considered, as the further south the system is when the trough enters the picture, the more time it will take to be steered northward, and vice-versa. Also, the slower or faster the movement, the sharper or wider the turn will be, respectively. Because Charley is moving more westward, it will indeed be further south than the National Hurricane Center predicts when the trough comes by. The 12Z tropical model suite has reflected the change in position. No surprise, they indicate a later turn and thus a more westward track. The Deep Beta and Advection Model, most reliable tropical model in this situation, has Charley nearing the central Florida Panhandle in 120 hours. Not only is this further west, but also much slower than officially forecasted. We have doubts to the storm being that slow given the intensity of the trough, but the track position seems reasonable.

The global models as a whole have had a difficult grasping the synoptic pattern and Charley initialization over the past few runs. The United Kingdom Meteorology Model and NoGAPS both merge Bonnie and Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a scenario highly unlikely given the progged speed of both storms, and therefore both models are being discounted. The Global Forecast System curves Charley northward with a landfall along the southwest coast of Florida. However, it initializes Charley too weak and too far north, so it is being discounted as well. The 12Z European Model interestingly continues to suggest a new scenario altogether in that Charley misses the trough completely. This is actually a possibility, because if the storm is far south enough, it will avoid the southerly flow induced by the trough when it passes by. A ridge will build in the area behind the trough, and if Charley is left hanging around in the Gulf of Mexico when this occurs, the ridge will shift the steering flow in a more easterly direction. Therefore, as the European Model shows, Charley would get slowly steered westward towards Texas out to 168 hours. However, considering the unseasonably strength of the trough, this track is rather unlikely. But the consistency in the model's runs and the accuracy record makes it worth noting. The idea cannot totally be dismissed.

Based on recent motion, steering flow, progged synoptic pattern, and tropical model suite, we expect Charley to turn in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba. At this longitude of the turn, landfall should occur somewhere between Panama City Beach and Tampa, probably in about 72 hours. Although not being forecasted, areas further west such as the Texas and Louisiana coast could end up be impacted, because as mentioned above, there is some chance that Charley will miss the trough and head further west. A strike along southern or southwestern Florida seems doubtful, despite the most recent thinking by the National Hurricane Center. It should noted that this is our own personal opinion, and is not intended to be used for life or death situations.

Regarding the intensity, Charley has now officially been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane based on aircraft reconnaissance reports of flight level winds near 80 knots in the west quadrant. Visible satellite imagery also depicts an eye forming over the past few hours, and outflow is good in all quadrants except the west due to slight restrictions by an upper level low ahead of the storm. Despite the eye feature and outflow, the convection pattern is still somewhat ragged, suggesting that although Charley has strengthened a little, it has not done so in a significant manner. Upper level conditions appear favorable for further intensification over the next day or so while in the western Caribbean Sea. The low aloft to the west may continue to result in a slight restriction of outflow along the western flank of the system. As long as Charely keeps its distance, and it should since it is slowing down, the low's hindering impact should only be slight. If anything, it will help to enhance convection over Charley by creating strong divergent flow. Vertical wind shear values in the area are very low, less than 10 knots, which will keep the system vertically stacked. Additionally, sea surface temperatures and oceanic depth temperatures are warm, which increases hurricane heat potential.

Considering all of this, steady intensification is expected to occur over the next day or so, and Charley should be a category 2 hurricane by the time it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Passing near or over the western tip of Cuba will only halt strengthening for a brief time period, but once it is in the clear and the storm is in the Gulf of Mexico, there is nothing that would argue against continued strengthening. The deep-layer trough will act to enhance the poleward outflow channel, and hurricane heat potential will still be high. If the more westward motion takes place as we are expecting, Charley will have more room over water and a little more time over water as well. Therefore, strengthening into a category 3 major hurricane cannot be ruled out before landfall.

All residents living in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the United States Gulf coast are urged to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center or local National Weather Service statements for complete details on the storm and how to be prepared.

Take care y'all...and stay tuned.
-Rob

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