...Charley moving near Jamaica...headed for the Cayman Islands...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Warning for Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana... Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be changed to a Hurricane Warning tonight.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended to include the Florida Keys east of Craig Key to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay...and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southwest coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef including Florida Bay...and from Flamingo northward to Bonita Beach. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. The Hurricane Watch will likely be extended northward along the Florida west coast tonight or early Thursday.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located near latitude 17.0 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 85 miles... 135 km...southwest of Kingston Jamaica.
Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph ...28 km/hr...and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track the center will be passing south of or very near the southwest coast of Jamaica tonight. Rain bands with tropical storm force winds in squalls will affect much of Jamaica this evening and tonight. These conditions will begin to spread over the Cayman Islands early Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica this evening and tonight...and the Cayman Islands tonight and Thursday morning.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with Charley.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 77.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
000
WTNT43 KNHC 112035
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
THE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH SUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. HOWEVER THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY FAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15. I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL AS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
BASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 77.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.3N 79.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 20.5N 81.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 23.2N 82.5W 80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.5W 90 KT
72HR VT 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z 43.5N 72.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1800Z 49.0N 60.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
My most important hurricane supply, (and I never see this mentioned) is supplies for the barbeque.
If you lose power, and have an electric stove, its one of the few ways to cook what you might otherwise lose in your freezer.