Folks (or Freepers)...it is my opinion that Charley will move further WEST than the National Hurricane Center suggests. This looks to be the case based on a number of reasons...1)recent motion has been further west than expected 2)global/tropical models have shifted west 3)ridge remains locked in place above it even with trough coming. Assuming it gets picked up by the trough, landfall looks to be further north...along the Panhandle, Big Bend, or extreme northwest Peninsula. Not south Florida. Another UNlikely scenario is that it misses the trough altogether and gets steered west...towards TEXAS. Doubtful? Heck yeah, do NOT count on it. But it can't be completely discounted. Details in my most recent discussion below. Keep in mind I'm just an amateur...so my opinions are PERSONAL only, NOT to be used for life or death decisions.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 August 2004 - 3:10 PM EDT
Revised at 5:00 PM EDT to include recent changes
Tropical Storm Bonnie and recently upgraded Hurricane Charley remain the top story in the tropics today. Both are set to impact land within the forecast period, though it appears Charley will have the greatest impact of the two.
Charley, now a category 1 hurricane, has continued to move on a general west to west-northwest track over the past few hours. This is against the 12-hour forecast motion presented by the National Hurricane Center at 11 AM Eastern Time, which depicted a northwest movement scraping the western tip of Jamaica. Based on recent aircraft recconaissance fixes, the center of the storm is also further south than originally estimated. Both the southward relocation and more westward motion could have major implications on the future track of Charley over the next few days. First of all, this means Jamaica will be spared the strongest portion of the storm further south, though intense rain bands and squally weather will still spread over the island through the next 12 hours. Secondly and more importantly, Charley may not turn as soon as the National Hurricane Center indicates. The west to west-northwest motion can be attributed to a strong ridge of high pressure located north of the system. The western prehiphery of this ridge is located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, just west of 85 degrees west longitude. This steering flow will hold firmly over the next 36 hours or so until a strong deep-layer trough slices through the Ohio Valley and northern Gulf states. When this occurs, we will begin to see a slow shift in the steering currents as the trough erodes the western flank of the ridge. As a consequence, Charley will make a turn towards the north and become intertwined in strong southerly winds.
There is no reason to argue with the National Hurricane Center regarding whether the storm will turn or not, because it will. The major question that is arising is not whether, but when will Charley turn? Short-term relocations or changes in motion must be considered, as the further south the system is when the trough enters the picture, the more time it will take to be steered northward, and vice-versa. Also, the slower or faster the movement, the sharper or wider the turn will be, respectively. Because Charley is moving more westward, it will indeed be further south than the National Hurricane Center predicts when the trough comes by. The 12Z tropical model suite has reflected the change in position. No surprise, they indicate a later turn and thus a more westward track. The Deep Beta and Advection Model, most reliable tropical model in this situation, has Charley nearing the central Florida Panhandle in 120 hours. Not only is this further west, but also much slower than officially forecasted. We have doubts to the storm being that slow given the intensity of the trough, but the track position seems reasonable.
The global models as a whole have had a difficult grasping the synoptic pattern and Charley initialization over the past few runs. The United Kingdom Meteorology Model and NoGAPS both merge Bonnie and Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a scenario highly unlikely given the progged speed of both storms, and therefore both models are being discounted. The Global Forecast System curves Charley northward with a landfall along the southwest coast of Florida. However, it initializes Charley too weak and too far north, so it is being discounted as well. The 12Z European Model interestingly continues to suggest a new scenario altogether in that Charley misses the trough completely. This is actually a possibility, because if the storm is far south enough, it will avoid the southerly flow induced by the trough when it passes by. A ridge will build in the area behind the trough, and if Charley is left hanging around in the Gulf of Mexico when this occurs, the ridge will shift the steering flow in a more easterly direction. Therefore, as the European Model shows, Charley would get slowly steered westward towards Texas out to 168 hours. However, considering the unseasonably strength of the trough, this track is rather unlikely. But the consistency in the model's runs and the accuracy record makes it worth noting. The idea cannot totally be dismissed.
Based on recent motion, steering flow, progged synoptic pattern, and tropical model suite, we expect Charley to turn in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba. At this longitude of the turn, landfall should occur somewhere between Panama City Beach and Tampa, probably in about 72 hours. Although not being forecasted, areas further west such as the Texas and Louisiana coast could end up be impacted, because as mentioned above, there is some chance that Charley will miss the trough and head further west. A strike along southern or southwestern Florida seems doubtful, despite the most recent thinking by the National Hurricane Center. It should noted that this is our own personal opinion, and is not intended to be used for life or death situations.
Regarding the intensity, Charley has now officially been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane based on aircraft reconnaissance reports of flight level winds near 80 knots in the west quadrant. Visible satellite imagery also depicts an eye forming over the past few hours, and outflow is good in all quadrants except the west due to slight restrictions by an upper level low ahead of the storm. Despite the eye feature and outflow, the convection pattern is still somewhat ragged, suggesting that although Charley has strengthened a little, it has not done so in a significant manner. Upper level conditions appear favorable for further intensification over the next day or so while in the western Caribbean Sea. The low aloft to the west may continue to result in a slight restriction of outflow along the western flank of the system. As long as Charely keeps its distance, and it should since it is slowing down, the low's hindering impact should only be slight. If anything, it will help to enhance convection over Charley by creating strong divergent flow. Vertical wind shear values in the area are very low, less than 10 knots, which will keep the system vertically stacked. Additionally, sea surface temperatures and oceanic depth temperatures are warm, which increases hurricane heat potential.
Considering all of this, steady intensification is expected to occur over the next day or so, and Charley should be a category 2 hurricane by the time it enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Passing near or over the western tip of Cuba will only halt strengthening for a brief time period, but once it is in the clear and the storm is in the Gulf of Mexico, there is nothing that would argue against continued strengthening. The deep-layer trough will act to enhance the poleward outflow channel, and hurricane heat potential will still be high. If the more westward motion takes place as we are expecting, Charley will have more room over water and a little more time over water as well. Therefore, strengthening into a category 3 major hurricane cannot be ruled out before landfall.
All residents living in Jamaica, Cayman Islands, western Cuba, and the United States Gulf coast are urged to closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous hurricane. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center or local National Weather Service statements for complete details on the storm and how to be prepared.
Take care y'all...and stay tuned.
-Rob
what about St.Augustine?
Orlando?
If it hits the panhandle, it will probably give Tampa Bay even more problems, because it will ride up the west coast with us on the right hand of the storm.