Replies

IF the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is correct...the Melbourne area will probably experience strong tropical storm force winds, perhaps even weak hurricane force. Orlando and St. Augustine are both right in the path of the NHC's forecast track...crossing FL will weaken it a bit but it'd likely still pack hurricane force winds at the time it exits the state. If the track deviates a tiny bit from the NHC's forecasted track, that wouldn't change the impact in those cities much...considering the overall size of the storm and its wind coverage should increase as it interacts with the approaching trough. Also keep in mind the strongest winds will be located in the northeast portion of the eyewall. So areas just east of the eye will be impacted more severely than areas just west.

All of this is provided the NHC's track is correct. I still stand thinking it'll move a bit further west and more in the Gulf of Mexico (based on reasoning given in above post). If it does take the more westward track I have in mind...all of those cities will be spared the eyewall and brunt of the storm, though not necessarily flood-producing rainbands and squally weather. In any case...although still potentially hazardous, it'd be less of a concern than if it takes the NHC track.

I'll be keeping a close eye on more model runs and near-term movement and steering flow changes to see if things continue (in my opinion) favor a more westerly track. A NOAA G-IV mission scheduled to investigate the environment around Charley later tonight should help provide a better sample and understanding of the synoptic pattern in the area for the models. By all means stay in close touch with local weather stations, local statements, and of course future NHC updates. Their voices should play the determining role in your final call on what to do and how to prepare.

Stay safe.
-Rob
http://www.independentwx.com