Actually, the current path for Charley is unprecedented for an August Cat 1 or 2 hurricane.
Posted on 08/11/2004 11:08:10 AM PDT by Pyro7480
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARLEY BECOMES A HURRICANE...RAIN BANDS SPREADING OVER JAMAICA...
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 150 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...BANDS OF SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF JAMAICA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 993 MB...29.31 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
what about St.Augustine?
Orlando?
Disney shut down the day that Hurricane Floyd was supposed to make a direct hit on Central FL. It turned at the last minute, but that was a very scary time. It was the only time in 25 years here in the Orlando area that we have actually boarded up all our windows.
Expect to lose power - perhaps for a day or even longer depending on where you are and your power company. We lose power during even minor storms, so I don't expect to be cooking any meals on Friday.
IF the NHC (National Hurricane Center) is correct...the Melbourne area will probably experience strong tropical storm force winds, perhaps even weak hurricane force. Orlando and St. Augustine are both right in the path of the NHC's forecast track...crossing FL will weaken it a bit but it'd likely still pack hurricane force winds at the time it exits the state. If the track deviates a tiny bit from the NHC's forecasted track, that wouldn't change the impact in those cities much...considering the overall size of the storm and its wind coverage should increase as it interacts with the approaching trough. Also keep in mind the strongest winds will be located in the northeast portion of the eyewall. So areas just east of the eye will be impacted more severely than areas just west.
All of this is provided the NHC's track is correct. I still stand thinking it'll move a bit further west and more in the Gulf of Mexico (based on reasoning given in above post). If it does take the more westward track I have in mind...all of those cities will be spared the eyewall and brunt of the storm, though not necessarily flood-producing rainbands and squally weather. In any case...although still potentially hazardous, it'd be less of a concern than if it takes the NHC track.
I'll be keeping a close eye on more model runs and near-term movement and steering flow changes to see if things continue (in my opinion) favor a more westerly track. A NOAA G-IV mission scheduled to investigate the environment around Charley later tonight should help provide a better sample and understanding of the synoptic pattern in the area for the models. By all means stay in close touch with local weather stations, local statements, and of course future NHC updates. Their voices should play the determining role in your final call on what to do and how to prepare.
Stay safe.
-Rob
http://www.independentwx.com
If it hits the panhandle, it will probably give Tampa Bay even more problems, because it will ride up the west coast with us on the right hand of the storm.
My most important hurricane supply, (and I never see this mentioned) is supplies for the barbeque.
If you lose power, and have an electric stove, its one of the few ways to cook what you might otherwise lose in your freezer.
You are correct.
When we were facing Isabel last year we made sure the propane tanks for the grilled were filled and that we had charcoal as well. I was expecting the power to go out first - and wanted to make sure we were able to do some cooking because we have an electric stove.
We never lost our power - but we were prepared!!!
Probably my most valuable hurricane supply is the big thermos to keep hot coffee for the duration of the storm. That, and an old fashioned hand crank coffee bean grinder.
Well, friend, looks like you're in the crosshairs again.
Actually, the current path for Charley is unprecedented for an August Cat 1 or 2 hurricane.
Solar power! So environmentally minded for an evil Republican! LOL. Bay News 9 has it going into the peninsula South of us, and if it does, we probably won't get much. But if it rides the coast up...
I was in Gloria on Long Island - the storm that brought down LILCO. This was an urban area, and I knew people who ended up without power for 2 weeks. They lived off tuna fish - egad!
I was only out for 3 days, but I had a gas stove at the time. So was able to cook. And it was Sept, so didn't need air. Actually it was pretty nice - instead of staying in at night and watching TV, people starting strolling the neighborhoods in the evening, greeting friends, and barbequeing.
The solar electric is great for times like this. Has battery bank that can last 3 days.
Good news for our friends in Bonnie's path. She has dropped wind speed somewhat, and looking a bit more disorganized. Charlie update should be up momentarily.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the Hurricane Watch has been extended northward along the west coast of Florida to Anna Maria Island.
Just talked to my daughter on Grand Cayman.
They have boarded up her windows... Charley
passed by Jamacai and is headed directly at
the Cayman's. Thus far, only rain, not much
wind,... not scheduled to hit until sometime
between 3-7:00AM her time (CDT).
When do you anticipate you'll lose your electricity?
Once the winds kick up to sustained TS strength, the electricity will get knocked out. I'm going to make a wild guess for Friday morning, long before the hurricane winds arrive. Friday the 13th will be a long, long day.
My prayers are with yall.
Keep us posted.
My daughter lives right on the beach front.
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