Posted on 08/07/2004 12:59:12 PM PDT by French-American Republican
Are we expected to gain seats or lose seats, and if we're expected to lose, are we expected to still retain majorities in Congress? Tell me realistically what should happen, not optimistically.
i think that florida will have a republican senator come november 2nd.
Georgia and South Carolina also will add Republicans to the Senate.
My prediction: 99% of incumbents will win. No major change in makeup of House or Senate.
Senate: Net GOP Gain of 0. Losing IL, gaining FL
House: Net GOP Gain of 2.
IMO, expect small but significant Republican gains in both the House and Senate. In the House, the majority will just become further entrenched: in the Senate, we still won't hit 60 votes, but we'll come closer.
The only way that Repubicans will lose seats overall is if some major political catastrophe happens.
Republicans will gain six seats in the U.S. House from Texas alone due to redistricting in that state.
Y'all check my numbers, please.
Gain six in Texas alone.
It will be a dog fight for the senate seat in Oklahoma to remain in the R column. But the grassroots campaign for Republican, Dr. Coburn, is on fire. Democrats will have to cross over for Coburn to win, could very well happen.
Can someone with a good knowledge of political science tell me how strongly a presidential race effects the Congressional elections (i.e. if people are really pro-Bush at around election time, to what extent will that affect Congress?).
There's a good chance Thune might take out Dasshole in SD, we can hope eh?
In the Senate, I think we pick up SC and GA. We'll gain FL, too, if Martinez wins the primary.
NC and LA I think stay in the Democrats' column.
We'll probably lose IL to Obama.... and I think the Dems win CO's seat, too. AK and OK should stay in our column.
So if Martinez loses the Senate stays even, and if he wins we gain one seat.
I don't know much about the House, but Texas will cancel out any Democratic gains.
The Floridians will get confused by the new electronic chads and Al-Zucchini will be elected to the Senate.
Congressman Billybob
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Beating Daschle depends on what kind of campaign Thune runs. I understand he would have beaten Johnson in '02 if he had been more aggressive.
I'd expect we'll pick up 5-7 senate seats and 10-15 house seats.
I live in NC, and am worried about the Burr-Bowles race. Bowles is benefitting tremendously from running a decent campaign in 2002 against Elizabeth Dole.
But is that Vitter guy in La not doing well? What is it about that state? Do they only vote statewide for the GOP for President or something?
I know Thune's '02 campaign in NE South Dakota was total amateur hour. Jr Hi Prom King campaigns were run better. Great example of; too little, too late, and too stupid! Even then, he would've won if it weren't for vote fraud.
This campaign, the old guard SD Republican social club is starting to be replaced by "Young Turks" who are both fired-up and embracing modern methods (computer, Internet, etc.). And Thune is running a better campaign.
That being said, SD Republican Party changes are a year too late for massive impact on this year's election. Too many incompetent county Republican organizations have not been purged. Additionally, Thune is running against SD's Lord of Lies and Master of Fraud, not his clone apprentice.
I don't believe Thune will win. But I sure hope he does!
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