Beating Daschle depends on what kind of campaign Thune runs. I understand he would have beaten Johnson in '02 if he had been more aggressive.
I know Thune's '02 campaign in NE South Dakota was total amateur hour. Jr Hi Prom King campaigns were run better. Great example of; too little, too late, and too stupid! Even then, he would've won if it weren't for vote fraud.
This campaign, the old guard SD Republican social club is starting to be replaced by "Young Turks" who are both fired-up and embracing modern methods (computer, Internet, etc.). And Thune is running a better campaign.
That being said, SD Republican Party changes are a year too late for massive impact on this year's election. Too many incompetent county Republican organizations have not been purged. Additionally, Thune is running against SD's Lord of Lies and Master of Fraud, not his clone apprentice.
I don't believe Thune will win. But I sure hope he does!
Thune would have won in 2002 if he'd appealed to more freedom and liberty minded voters. Thune's loss margin was smaller than the total vote for the Libertarian candidate.
Democratic Johnson (incumbent)
167,481 50%
Republican Thune
166,954 49%
Libertarian Evans
3,071 1%
I thought Thune would have beaten Johnson if it hadn't been for those late-reporting precincts on the Indian reservations (populated on election day by more Dem lawyers than voters).
IMNSHO he did beat Johnson in 02. It was one of those cases where a bunch of late votes were "discovered" coming from the reservations. There was a lot of ILLEGAL stuff going on. Thune chose NOT to challenge in court, thinking it would damage his chances for future elections.
It was quite clear there were "problems" with the ballots and registrations. There were legal punishments handed out to some Demoncrat election workers, I don't remember the exact details but it was one of those kinda "stolen" elections.