Poll: Problems for Incumbents in PA? [Kerry up 53-41]

KDKA-TV ^ | 8/3/04 | N/A

[BlackRazor]

Poll: Problems for Incumbents in PA?
Aug 3, 2004 6:32 pm US/Eastern

Though the election is still three months away, two new political polls here in Pennsylvania are sure to generate some national attention.

The latest numbers from the exclusive KDKA-TV/Survey USA News Poll of 721 likely voters suggests some problems for two prominent incumbents: US Senator Arlen Specter and President George W. Bush.

At the Bush-Cheney rally in Pittsburgh last weekend, Senator Rick Santorum got a standing ovation; but that wasn't the case for Specter. GOP supporters actually booed the senior senator, which may explain why Specter -- who just barely won his primary -- has dropped nine points in two months; even though his opponent, Congressman Joe Hoeffel, has only gained one point.

Since June, the Specter votes have gone into the "other" and "undecided" categories -- which currently get 17-percent of the vote.

US Senate Race Source: KDKA-TV/Survey USA News Poll

Specter (R): 49% (June: 58%)

Hoeffel (D): 34% (June: 33%)

Other: 12% (June: 6%)

Undecided: 5% (June: 3%)

If he qualifies for the ballot, "other" is expected to be Constitutional Party candidate, Jim Clymer, who calls himself the conservative alternative to Specter.

Meanwhile, Senator Specter isn't the only Republican incumbent who may be facing a big battle this November.

According to the latest survey results, Democratic Senator John Kerry is pulling ahead of President Bush in Pennsylvania on the heels of the Democratic National Convention.

Presidential Race Source: KDKA-TV/Survey USA News Poll

George W. Bush (R): 41% (June: 46%)

John Kerry (D): 53% (June: 47%)

Two months ago, Bush and Kerry were tied in our news poll; today, though, Bush has dropped six points, while Kerry has gained six points -- giving him a twelve-point lead in PA.

It's important to remember, though, that these polls are just snapshots of today -- not a picture of what will happen on November 2nd.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

[cripplecreek]

"It's important to remember, though, that these polls are just snapshots of today -- not a picture of what will happen on November 2nd."

It's also important to remember that they're a snapshot of those who are polled alone.

[republicanwizard]

Please send this note to your ping list...

The SurveyUSA poll in PA oversampled Democrats. If you adjust the numbers to fit a 40% D, 40% R, 20% I turnout, what we had in 2000, then Kerry has a 49% to 45% lead over Bush.

Nothing to panic about here. Besides, I know Specter is well over 50%.

[Coop]

Thanks for the smile you gave me when I read that Specter was booed at the GOP gathering. LOL

[Nascardude]

The Internals of this poll are 46% Dem, 34% GOP. I'm not sure what the actual registration is of Pennsylvania.

[comebacknewt]

Hmmm. This is not good. Hopefully, it is just an outlier and other polls will show a much closer race.

I guess some of the DUmmies will come back off of the ledge now.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

I'd almost like to see a Democrat beat that sleazy RINO Specter, just so I would never have to think of him again.

Almost.

[Cricket24]

They poll in the PA cities. They are all heavily democrat. I live in a rural mountainous area of NE PA and I know no one who has ever been polled! This is BUSH country!

[af_vet_1981]

If he qualifies for the ballot, "other" is expected to be Constitutional Party candidate, Jim Clymer

Not another Clymer ...

[gdc61]

I think its time G.W. separates himself from his friend Arlen.

[BlackRazor]

The Internals of this poll are 46% Dem, 34% GOP. I'm not sure what the actual registration is of Pennsylvania.

As of April, the registration stats were 47.4% Dem, 41.6% GOP.

Exit polling from 2000 put the split at 40%-40% (with 20% independents).

[gdc61]

I think its time G.W. separates himself from his friend Arlen.

[WakeUpAndVote]

The poll was taken by a CBS station.

In Pittsburgh.

In the 2000 election Gore only won 10 counties in the State. The counties around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. That is all the dems need to take it.

Sad but true, two cities full of union members can tell a State if not a Country what to do.

[demlosers]

Then they under-polled the GOP by -7.6%

[carmody]

And yet Santorum won the state twice. I had the great fortune to attend the Pittsburgh rally for the President. The people streamed in for hours. Orderly, well dressed, average citizens. We waited for hours just to get in the convention center. The media reported over 10,000 showed up for the President. On the same day, 45 minutes away in Greensburg, the media reported Kerry attracted between 8,000 and 10,000. I would bet a lot of those were bussed in by the unions. This was immediately following the dem convention.

On a side note, later that evening the local FOX news station reported that the Kerry bus tour closed traffic on the highway after the rally because his staff was hungry. The news showed video of all traffic being halted while a delivery boy ran food to the Kerry bus. I couldn't find any newsprint stories about that. But it made the TV news.

[DrDeb]

"The SurveyUSA poll in PA oversampled Democrats. If you adjust the numbers to fit a 40% D, 40% R, 20% I turnout, what we had in 2000, then Kerry has a 49% to 45% lead over Bush."


thanks for posting this information . . . always remember, 'it's the weighting stupid'!!!!!

[Gore carried PA by 5 pts in 2000 -- we're doing just fine at this stage of the election cycle!!!]

[familyofman]

"In the 2000 election Gore only won 10 counties in the State."

Elections are determined by the number of 'voters (people), not the number of counties. Check were the population of PA is - it's around Pitt and Philly, not Scranton, Dubois, or Jamestown.

[smokeyb]

"Nothing to panic about here. Besides, I know Specter is well over 50%."

I remember Specter's campaign saying this back before the primary.

[Badray]

"The SurveyUSA poll in PA oversampled Democrats. If you adjust the numbers to fit a 40% D, 40% R, 20% I turnout, what we had in 2000, then Kerry has a 49% to 45% lead over Bush.

Nothing to panic about here. Besides, I know Specter is well over 50%.

You and the GOP leadership need to take off your blinders and realize that you are losing the support of the Republican wing of the Republican party.

Why do you think Specter was booed? Even though Specter is running, Toomey IS the co-manager of the PA campaign for Bush. It would have been a lot smarter for them to leave Specter in Philly and they would have had a rousing ovation when Toomey took the stage. Remember, in Western PA, Toomey trounced Specter by a 2 to 1 margin even with Bush's help. Yet the GOP is still trying to shove him down our throats. Don't they see that it's not working? Didn't they hear on Saturday that it's not working?

Remember the GOP claim that Bush needed Specter to win and that's why they backed him? Tell me why Specter has removed all reference to Bush from his website (I haven't looking in the past week)?

Bush and the GOP had better wise up or they will end up losing PA to the Dems.