Gallup's Revised Post-Convention Poll Numbers (Bush 51%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%)

Gallup ^ | 8/2/04

[ambrose]

Gallup's Revised Post-Convention Poll Numbers (Bush 51%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%)

[Brilliant]

Maybe we cancel the Rep. convention altogether and nominate Bush/Cheney by mail.

[eeriegeno]

Instead of a Convention Bounce the Dems got a Convention Crater... nice :-)

Since the dems didn't do too good with this convention, maybe they ought to consider having another one before the election? They could let folks from the 'heart and soul of America' speak?

[IamConservative]

"Instead of having a Republican National Convention in August, could we just have another Democrat one?"

If not quote of the day, definitely idea of the day..!!..

[KJacob]

Is that the Gallup chart? How do they get 51-45 from that? It looks even.

[Condor51]

ha-ha-ha, That sucking sound you hear is the Kerry-Edwards 'ticket' being dragged into a black-hole in the Crab Nebula. Which btw, is where I hear Mike Dukakis now resides.

[Dilbert56]

Perhaps a lot of the Democrat "one-issue" voters were turned off. Kerry never directly addressed abortion, gay marriage, the Kyoto treaty, gun control. His position on Iraq was clear as mud.

If I were a Democrat and fervently believed in one of those causes, Kerry would have left me flat. He portrayed himself as "Bush Lite". Deaniacs would dump him because he won't cut and run.

Trying to placate everyone may have turned off the base. Unfortunately, the election isn't tomorrow; they have time to get back in the game.

Kerry left a smokescreen to shoot at. He took firm positions on almost nothing (except he'll never fix Social Security).

• GWB can hammer him for being a wuss who can't take firm positions
• He can hammer him for puporting to have good ideas on the economy and Iraq and refusing to bring them up until after the election. What John? You're going to let troops die because you're afraid someone else might get credit for your ideas?

[jackbill]

The numbers in the chart are for "Registered Voters". When you weed out the non-Likely Voters, you get the 51% to 45%.

What this says, if the numbers are true, is that Kerry could tighten the race or even win if he could turn those "Registered" but not "Likely Voters" into real Voters.

Thus, it will be turnout dependent.

[dvwjr]

Here are the latest political affiliation breakdowns for the last few Newsweek/PSRAI, American Research Group and Gallup polls. If the poll result percentages in the table show below are rounded off so as not to have a fractional component, the results should match the published polls for each polling organization. The fractional differences in the table poll results are due to the calculations done to distribute the sample number of Registered voter responses which was necessary to avoid any great inaccuracies due to the rounding already performed by the polling organizations.

The calculated political affiliation breakdowns of the percentages of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the sample of "Registered Voters" for each poll should be fairly accurate as they are based on the data published by each polling organization. When it comes to each polling organization's sample demographics some comments are in order. It appears that Newsweek has a tendency to over-represent Democrats and Independents at particularly opportune times. The ARG has a fairly consistent political affiliation sample ratio range, and the Gallup organization has a strange predilection towards over-representing Republicans at the present time. If the polling of registered voters in the sample is not re-weighted by the polling organizations, then the variances might be explained by the polling data collection methodology and time/money constraints.

Remember for Gallup, they sometime have quotes from the same poll for three groups: 'Adults', a sub-set of Adults which are 'Registered Voters', finally 'Likely Voters' which is a sub-set of 'Registered Voters'. This analysis is done on just the Gallup 'Registered Voters' polling, do not confuse these numbers with either 'Adult' or 'Likely Voter'...

Newsweek  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
March  18-19,  2004		35.3%	33.4%	31.3%	838	45.47%	43.44%	5.49%	5.60%
May  13-14,  2004		30.8%	34.7%	34.5%	832	42.43%	43.39%	5.41%	8.77%
July  8-9,  2004		28.5%	27.5%	44.1%	1,001	43.56%	47.45%	3.40%	5.59%
July  29-30,  2004		28.9%	37.1%	34.0%	1,010	42.28%	49.01%	3.07%	5.64%
July  29-30  minus  July  8-9		0.4%	9.7%	-10.1%		-1.28%	1.56%	-0.33%	0.05%
Newsweek  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	2.84%
ARG  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
Jun  29-July  1,  2004		29.7%	30.2%	40.1%	773	44.21%	47.23%	2.51%	6.05%
July  30-August  1,  2004		33.0%	34.5%	32.5%	776	44.85%	48.84%	1.93%	4.38%
July  30-August  1  minus  June  29  -  July  1		3.3%	4.3%	-7.6%		0.64%	1.61%	-0.58%	-1.67%
ARG  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	0.97%
Gallup  Poll  Results		Republicans	Democrats	Independents	N=	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Other
All  polls  Registered  Voters
July  8-11,  2004		34.9%	35.7%	29.4%	891	41.75%	49.61%	4.15%	4.49%
July  19-21,  2004		38.3%	33.1%	28.6%	878	43.05%	47.15%	5.13%	4.67%
July  30-August  1,  2004		39.4%	38.9%	21.7%	916	47.82%	47.38%	2.29%	2.51%
July  30-August  1  minus  July  19-21		1.1%	5.7%	-6.9%		4.76%	0.23%	-2.83%	-2.16%
Gallup  Kerry  Convention  Bounce:	-4.54%

Special thanks to poster RWR8189 for placing the Gallup Poll (subscription only) Registered Voter demographic and poll data on FreeRepublic for the Gallup Poll portion of this analysis.

Have fun, and please let me know of any errors you may find...

dvwjr

[smiley]

....I see dead people...

[A Longer Name]

Have you seen the age distribution? Freaking boomers!

[Tall_Texan]

Yes, I noticed the Gallup poll shows the hippie generation leaning Kerry but the younger and older groups lean to Bush.

[AFPhys]

this IS astonishing

[BSunday]

Not only that, but under education, only the undereducated and the too educated for their own good favor Kerry.

[Republican Red]

He’s dead Jim

[Captain Peter Blood]

Just heard Rush talking about this and USA Today's lame article trying to explain why Kerry got "The Double Dead Cat Bounce" instead of the traditional bounce out of a convention.
Bottom Line is that Kerry is a Boring, Effete, Snobbish, Pseudo Intellectual of no real accomplishment, except for his service in Vietnam along with his staged reenactment's of his exploits on 8mm film.

He is just a turnoff and the longer this campaign goes on the more this will be evident.

[EternalVigilance]

Kerry is now crisscrossing the country campaigning on 'God and Guns'.

It's always a risk to fight a war on the other guy's ground.

It's scary on the one hand, because you never know how many gullible people he might fool with his lying rhetoric, but he is playing a dangerous game.

[ApesForEvolution]

lol

[ApesForEvolution]

Yeah, I believe Kerry tops out at 45% when all is said and done. Still scary to know that such a large percentage of Americans are stupid pigs and pigmasters...