Is that the Gallup chart? How do they get 51-45 from that? It looks even.
The numbers in the chart are for "Registered Voters". When you weed out the non-Likely Voters, you get the 51% to 45%.
What this says, if the numbers are true, is that Kerry could tighten the race or even win if he could turn those "Registered" but not "Likely Voters" into real Voters.
Thus, it will be turnout dependent.