Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
Pessimism will get you nowhere! Bush will win in a land slide! I believe this intellectually as well as in my heart. There is nothing close about this election. Remember what I said on Nov. 3rd. I know at least 50 democrats who will be voting for President Bush. I'm talking real people not liberals.
From that pic on Post 157 with John and John both wearing rain jackets, seemingly identical although different colors, is it possible that Kerry dresses Edwards to match?
I thought perhaps having a connection to a monarchy, even one thousands of miles distant, might have proven destructive to Canada's collective psyche...if there is such a creature. In the context of that TV program on Liberty/The American Revolution, one of the saddest quotes was from a Tory gentleman who'd fled back to England because he didn't believe he could resume his life in America (maybe he thought he'd be ridden out of town on a rail...but surely he could have settled elsewhere?).
The man said, and I'm paraphrasing here, that he felt like a lost soul. He was truly an American, yet couldn't go home and was destined to spend the rest of his life mourning what he'd lost. I grew up in a sleepy MA town,where an old church parsonage front door still sports a musketball hole from an incident just before 1776, when the local militia marched down the street and demanded that the good reverend come out and declare himself either for the rebels or the crown. He cowered in the front hall, and they shot a hole in the door.
He fled to Canada with his family. He must have been terrified half out of his wits.
I've always considered the incident from the rebels' point of view, the same militia who, several nights a week, practiced maneuvers in a field a few miles away and then repaired to the local tavern to get drunk. If you were a betting man, you wouldn't have put your money on the rebels. A more unlikely crew to beat the most formidable army in the world you couldn't hope to find, but we had a few fanatics on our side (and you know how dangerous fanatics are!), and some blind luck. It's an interesting series if you happen to catch it. All the quotes and dialogue come from letters and writings of the day, so you get a good feel for how people were thinking at the time.
I wondered if there was any Freeper connection.Thanks! What a great group.
Hadn't seen your after action report before (it's great by the way) but got the photo from the News Photos link off of refdesk.com.
TeDAYza's idea?
Compare....Jimmy carter, al sharpton, the Clintons, Terresa, Abama, Gore, edwards, tutu Ron Reagon, Roger Moore, Aflect TO...
Zell Miller, Guialina (sp), Arnold Sw., Cheney, Laura Bush, and others, I see a big bounce coming on.
I am very worried about the terriosts. They wouldn't bother Kerry, but Could target Bush big time.
I LOVE IT!
The wussie convention.
"Let there be no mistake: I will never hesitate to use force when it is required. Any attack will be met with a swift and certain response."
So Kerry will use force, only after we are attacked? Those are his own words. But who wants a President who will wait until we are attacked before he takes action? That's why President Bush's use of pre-iminent strikes is important to push in this campaign. Americans don't want to be attacked, and anything that can be done to prevent this from happening will meet with resounding support of the majority of people in this country.
With the level of intimacy that Kerry and Edwards are sharing - I'm positive that it was Edwards' idea..
[ F u l l B o d y S h u d d e r ]
LOL! Metrosexuals - what can ya do??
"Nixon got 43.5, while Humphry got about 38.7"
Nah, in 1968 the popular vote was: Nixon @ 43.43%, Humphrey @ 42.72%, Wallace @ 13.53%, etc.
Source: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 1968.
dvwjr
What are you talking about? I addressed all of his points, and that's all a rebuttal has to do. But to reiterate, all the electorial tampering is going on is either inside of his head, or on a scale that is so small as to laughable.
Clear enough?
I know, he's a horrible, confusing candidate.
I believe that one of the most honest evalutative numbers will be the market share for the TV viewers of the RNC convention. The Demodogs got numbers of 10-12 last week. If the 'Pubbies do better than that, Pres.Bush and the whole party will get a better bounce than the sKerry Demodogs. Zel Miller, Gulliani, and the other speakers will not turn voters off as so many of the Demodog speakers did, and that will translate into higher poll numbers later on.
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I believe that one of the most honest evalutative numbers will be the market share for the TV viewers of the RNC convention. The Demodogs got numbers of 10-12 last week. If the 'Pubbies do better than that, Pres.Bush and the whole party will get a better bounce than the sKerry Demodogs. Zel Miller, Gulliani, and the other speakers will not turn voters off as so many of the Demodog speakers did, and that will translate into higher poll numbers later on.
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If Mizzz Terrayzzza sKerry stays out of the public eye during the campaign ( a necessity, I believe, for sKerry ) that whole battlefield (yes - there is one that First Ladies play on) belongs decisively to Laura. Chalk up a fair number of voters switching to Pres.Bush.
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I don't know because I was only 2 in 1972, but wasn't the electorate divided than with Vietnam? Hasn't there been other elections when there were few undecided voters (1984 perhaps)?
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