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In photo 3&4 is that hand using Botox?
Posted on 07/31/2004 8:48:48 PM PDT by SamAdams76
Matt Drudge is reporting tonight that John Kerry appears to have only a 4-point convention bounce (quoting Newsweak).
If true, a mere 4-point convention bounce is a disaster for Kerry. Just disastrous.
Let me tell you why and then I'll back it up with some hard data.
When you are running against an incumbent, you need a huge bounce to keep the race competitive. Especially since the incumbent will have the last word (by having the convention last). Bill Clinton got a 30 point bounce at his convention in 1992 and he needed almost all of it to beat the incumbent Bush Sr.
By comparison, Al Gore had a 19 point convention bounce in 2000 and still lost - it wasn't enough!
Here are the convention bounces of other losers...
Bob Dole (1996) - 15 points
George Bush Sr (1992) - 16 points
Mike Dukakis (1988) - 11 points
Walter Mondale (1984) - 16 points
Jimmy Carter (1980) - 17 points
Gerald Ford (1976) - 7 points
Hubert Humphrey (1968) - 4 points
Taking the cake for the most pathetic convention bounce in modern political history is George McGovern from 1972. Minus 3 points! And we all know how THAT race turned out.
So if the 4-point convention "bounce" for Kerry holds, he is in Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern territory here.
Personally, I think Newsweak is being overly optimistic. I don't sense any Kerry bounce out there. And that spells big trouble for the Kerry campaign as the Bush campaign is about to role into high gear and get the spotlight next month in the Big Apple.
"They are always asking people who they will vote for, in these polls, but what about a strength of conviction type of poll? Do they have catagories like "Absolutely positive vote for Bush" or "probably Bush but not really sure?"
I've been polled by Zogby recently. They do have a 'not likely to change' category.
I hope you're right. I'm not so optimistic. I'm really afraid so many people absolutely HATE Bush in such a pathological and extreme way that they are really motivated to destroy him and vote him out of office.
The country seems more polarized than I've ever seen it. I hope I'm wrong, but I live in Texas and there are lots of Kerry people here. Maybe my viewpoint is skewed by the number of my artsy soi dissant intellectual friends but I'm pessimistic. I don't think Bush is a good speaker, but I don't know how much that counts.
Reality for me is I think we're in WW III with Islamic fundamentalism. I don't think they're going to quit until we kill most of them. I'm voting for Bush like my life depends on it and I've sent the RNC money this year.
Remember, back then there was a little "err" on the part of the Clinton administration. They "accidentally" forgot to mail out the ballots in time. They came back too late, and were considered as invalid because they missed the deadline. They threw them out.
I was amazed at how scripted and boring their convention was .. too scripted in fact
And nothing of what their base wanted to hear
"Clintons OWN Kerry"
-- No, the Clintons own Terry McAuliffe, and by extension the DNC.
How exactly are we "messing with" your elections? I want details. As far as I can tell, we protect our own borders nicely thank you. Finally, Canadians are the biggest investors in the American economy, and a massive source of your energy both now and it the future.Good luck with you boycott and the resulting economic nightmare.
Do YOU feel better now? Please share any more deep thoughts you might have.
Oh, give the man a little credit. He DID attend 11 out of 48 of the Senate Intelligence Committee public meetings (the ones in which attendance is recorded). Imagine what might have happened to our Republic if he didn't show up at all!!
A four point Newsweak bounce is more likely a net loss.
This is a month old but..."As has been the case since the end of the primary season, Bush’s strength of support is much higher than Kerry’s. Fully 75 percent of Bush voters say they support him "strongly" and 25 percent say "only somewhat." Among Kerry voters, just over half — 53 percent — say they support him "strongly" and 45 percent say "only somewhat."
They still have to get out of bed and show up at the polls. If Bush can get 10% of the Kerry supporters to simply be apathetic enough to stay home, he will win in a landslide.
Given that Kerry is stealing all of his campaign themes from Bush, this doesn't seem too far fetched.
I hope, help is on the way.
Canadians aren't "investing" in the US economy--you're buying stuff you need from us. Don't make it sound like a charitab;e contibution.
I think the US "invests" a couple bucks in Canada, too. No need to be grateful either way--you want stuff, and so do we.
LOL. Forgot about that one. But the guy has the audacity to criticize Bush's slogan, when his own keep changing with the wind.
outstanding
In this election season the undecided vote is somewhere around 10% at the most. Everyone else is pretty rock solid in their chose of candidates. Having said this the only way Kerry would see some of the historical bumps you've listed is if all the undecided suddenly became decided because of what they saw from him at the convention or the resulting good press the liberal media is giving him. So a 4% bump in my opinion isn't as bad as some are making out. The real question is will he be able to maintain the bump till election day? I say no!
There's no might about it threep.
As a man of clarity and coherence, Kerry is an ever changing pretzel.
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In photo 3&4 is that hand using Botox?
"Bush got the last laugh in 2000
and he'll have the last laugh in 2004"
-- He also got the last laugh in '94, when nobody expected his come-from-behind defeat of Ann Richards.
I see that too, but that's a measure of passion. Gore supporters were not passionate until about 8pm in Florida on election day. Kerry's Kooks are passionate, but they are also very irrational, which turns off lots of people.
They're busing in hundreds to protest Bush in NYC. When the homosexual dysfunctionals were committing anarchy in Ca., half the homos there were bused in Canadians.
How would you feel if we decided to chose your politicians for you? Bus loads of Americans flooding over the boarder pretending to be Canadians cheering OUR chosen candidate? Showing up at all OUR mans speeches and having YOUR press show the country the adoration for the man WE choose? Spending big money in YOUR states to ensure OUR man the victory? Would you approve of our "assistance"? Would you welcome us with open arms?
You folks keep butting in, and our busses will eventually start heading your way, too.
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