Posted on 07/29/2004 7:23:39 AM PDT by Truth is a Weapon
This is my first posting. I will try to to break the rules.
Here is my theory about the Bush-Cheney 04 campaignits history and future. This theory comes from an ordinary conservative man with absolutely no inside tracks on what is really happening at the campaign. I, like many of you, have often wondered why the BC04 campaign was not more aggressive in its assault against Kerry-Edwards. Were they really trying to emulate the Bush 41 failed campaign? Then, a thought occurred to meLautenberg.
If BC04 drives down Kerrys poll numbers before he is officially the nominee, the Dems might just pull a switch and suddenly the campaign is facing a different opponent. Then all that research and background information obtained on Kerry would be wasted. We all know from what we have read on the Free Republic that there is ample material for Willie Horton type of advertising and campaigning. I wont even attempt to catalog all the things Kerry has done that should disqualify him in the minds of your average American voter. And the Democrat Party seems to be blind to this fact. For Rove et al, Kerry, next to Howard Dean, is probably the dream opponent.
Well, anyway, after tonights acceptance speech, Kerry will be the official nominee of the Democrats. And no matter how weak his campaign subsequently becomes there is no practical way to switch candidates without enormous costs. What worked in New Jersey in 2002 just wont play across the country.
Therefore, it is my gut feeling that BC04 will come out swinging for the bleachers in August. I may be wrong about this but GWB is a competitor and warrior. He knows that to win he must focus on 270 electoral votes. The administration has successfully toppled two governments; put an international terrorist group on the ropes and converted Libya and Pakistan from hostile governments to cooperators. The BC04 campaign can certainly win the necessary battleground states to mount an electoral victory. Like France and Germany, New York, Massachusetts and the popular vote are not necessary to achieving the objective.
Anyway, I guess time will prove or disprove this theory. But I will be holding my breath just a bit until John Kerry says, I accept the nomination. At this point I take comfort that Kerrys ego and ambition has that train rolling downhill at breakneck speed. Sorry that I could not re-read and edit this but I must run catch a plane.
First line should be "I will try not to break the rules."
It's about MONEY. Use it wisely. Kerry's slipping all by himself. don't get in the way. Bush will strike when the time is right.
I think the first post being a vanity is one of them. :-)
I never thought of it that way. I'd wondered also about why the BC04 camp is so quiet on the sidelines. Makes perfest sense. BC04 may be setting up for a grand slam home run. Hope so.
I heard the term "back loaded" used to describe the Bush campaign strategy. Don't peak too soon, wait, wait, wait, and then hit em hard. I guess you could call it a "rope a dope" campaign. Hope it works.
Roves knows Kerry has to go dark on ads after the convention.
Why waste a bunch of money trying to compete with free ads by all media outlets this week?
He has a month a bring Kerry's covention bounce 1-5 points down before the Republican Convention at the end of August.
Alot is going to ride on the debates this year, like it or not the numbers show that people are looking for a reason to buy Kerry but they haven't so far.
The reasons for any decisions are based on multiple considerations. This is obviously one of them, as well as the funding issues and most importantly the fact that when one denies things strongly they tend to stay in the news longer.
"I never thought of it that way. I'd wondered also about why the BC04 camp is so quiet on the sidelines. Makes perfest sense. BC04 may be setting up for a grand slam home run. Hope so."
The risk in that strategy is that now everyone is expecting
the "grand slam home run" campaign to start. If it doesn't materialize, then there will be widespread dissapointment among the base. I know many other volunteers who have been waiting and waiting for whatever strategy Bush and Rove have cooked up to be implemented and put into action. Let's hope it was worth the wait!
From what I understand, the Bush Cheney Ticket will be spending about 70 million dollars over the course of the next six weeks in a massive ad campaign the likes of which we've never seen before.
I think its great so many of us here are "chomping at the bit".....the run up to the RNC Convention should be very satisfying to most of us.
Kerry's "moment" is tonight. Don't begrudge it, folks. Its part of our system. And quite honestly, its very easy to forget one key fact regarding John Kerry while watching the toned down (for the most part) Dem Convention.
He's boring as hell, he has no viable strategy beyond "Bash Bush" which he won't do tonight.
They've had their turn at bat, folks.
Our turn is coming, and we are not required to run away from who we really are.....unlike our opponents on the left. Thats whats going to decide this.
Exactly at the time when Kerry campaign has indicated they will not do much campaigning. They have to stretch their money with after the convention is restricted to a finite amount.
During which time Bush/Cheney can go whole bore soft and hard money right up to the beginning of the RNC convention.
But the point about Lautenberg is very apt. Once the candidate is official, however then you can open up with the big guns.
He could have started at least two weeks ago. They wouldn't have been able to shift gears that quickly-- except to Edwards, and that option remains if they want Kerry to drop out due to poor health.
I think Bush has pretty effectively defined Kerry as an aloof flip-flopper who has a lot of money and is out of touch with reality. If you look at the polls, it reflects this.
The fact that John Kerry so far has spent over $100 million and still thinks he hasn't "defined himself" speaks volumes. After hemorraging more money than any Democrat in history, Kerry still doesn't have one supporter in a nation of 300 million people who can say why they're for Kerry. Even his wife and daughter are simply "anti-Bush".
You see this more if you live in a battleground state. At times, you can't turn on the TV without either seeing a Bush ad that makes Bush look presidential, a Bush ad that makes Kerry look ridiculous, or a Kerry ad that tries to "define" Kerry. The campaign that's spinning its wheels is Kerry's.
Also, by the time the Olympics are done, the dem convention will be a distant memory.
That's a good post. Thanks for the read. I hope you are right.
I agree with your assessment of what BC04 is doing, disagree about the reason.
Those who are already paying attention have picked a side. The decisive 10% in the middle in swing states is not yet paying attention. Advertising now would be a waste...the voters he needs to reach are currently unreachable.
Furthermore, BC04 has the benefit of running against a candidate who is trying to remain unknown because the more America knows about him the less they like him. As he exposes himself, he damages himself. Witness exhibit A: D Convention. Kerry has introduced and reintroduced himself many times. Did you know he was a Vietnam Veteran? Do you know anything else about him? When an enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt him. As long as he is running on 4 months 37 years ago, he can't win.
The President will need to keep his powder dry for the McCain ban on free speech in the runup to the election. Furthermore, later in the campaign it will be clear which issues/points/policies/mistakes need to be exploited. Should Bush be running feel good patriotic ads, or should he be attacking Kerry? Not sure which is more valuable at this point...but in a month or two we will know which is necessary to effect swing state 'moderates'.
That said, I do think he should be publicizing the D avoidance tactics...highlight the point that after all these introductions, Kerry hasn't sought fit to tell us anything about himself except Vietnam.
Kerry, for all his supposedly 'electability' can be sunk pretty easily. But we have to wait to figure out which shots will effectively sink him.
I have a simpler thought: A.D.D.
It's only July. In a nation where every film scene is limited to 3 seconds before a cutaway to the next, why waste a bunch of money and emotional energy on folks who couldn't remember 9/11 three months after the fact? We dispose of celebrity and events like our lunchtime fast food...next!
October is still 8 weeks away, and if he can keep Kerry punching the air for at least another month, everyone will start to wonder what Kerry is swinging at. Fun to watch!
A.D.D. is a national disorder that you might as well learn to manage, cuz you're not going to change it with truth, facts, vision, or moral purpose. All you can hope to do is wow 'em with a dazzling display and hope their retinas get burned long enough to remember what was important.
I've already forgotten the point...oooh! look! A Shiny Object!
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