I agree with your assessment of what BC04 is doing, disagree about the reason.
Those who are already paying attention have picked a side. The decisive 10% in the middle in swing states is not yet paying attention. Advertising now would be a waste...the voters he needs to reach are currently unreachable.
Furthermore, BC04 has the benefit of running against a candidate who is trying to remain unknown because the more America knows about him the less they like him. As he exposes himself, he damages himself. Witness exhibit A: D Convention. Kerry has introduced and reintroduced himself many times. Did you know he was a Vietnam Veteran? Do you know anything else about him? When an enemy is making a mistake, don't interrupt him. As long as he is running on 4 months 37 years ago, he can't win.
The President will need to keep his powder dry for the McCain ban on free speech in the runup to the election. Furthermore, later in the campaign it will be clear which issues/points/policies/mistakes need to be exploited. Should Bush be running feel good patriotic ads, or should he be attacking Kerry? Not sure which is more valuable at this point...but in a month or two we will know which is necessary to effect swing state 'moderates'.
That said, I do think he should be publicizing the D avoidance tactics...highlight the point that after all these introductions, Kerry hasn't sought fit to tell us anything about himself except Vietnam.
Kerry, for all his supposedly 'electability' can be sunk pretty easily. But we have to wait to figure out which shots will effectively sink him.
JMO, but this is a very important point to remember. If you look ath the way the polls have gone since spring, Bush has been very steady while le Querrie has been all over the place. Love him or hate him, Americans know Bush. When the undecideds start to really get to know le Querrie his numbers will slip...and slip...and slip.
Le Querrie can't hide forever.
The Bush campaign has in excess of $60 million it HAS to, by law, spend before he is nominated - so there will be a blitz between now and the republican convention in September. After the nomination he's limited to the $75 million in public (your tax dollars at work) money.