Kerry Trails Bush in Electoral Votes

Yahoo (AP) ^ | 7/24/04 | RON FOURNIER

[The_Victor]

BOSTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) narrowly trails President Bush (news - web sites) in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican incumbent. Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College (news - web sites) math that favors Bush.

With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.

"It's a tough, tough map. I think it's going to be a close race," said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore (news - web sites)'s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry.

"But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said.

Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from:

_TOSSUPS — Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry's column.

_LEAN KERRY — Maine, Minnesota and Washington (a combined 25 electoral votes) favor Kerry over Bush by a few percentage points. Gore carried them in 2000.

_LEAN BUSH — North Carolina, Colorado, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri (a combined 73 electoral votes) give Bush modest leads. He won all seven in 2000.

All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between "lean" to "tossup" throughout the campaign.

____

Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes — one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.

Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260.

Even if Kerry consolidates Gore's states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush's column to close the electoral vote gap.

Kerry's best prospects may be in the five tossup states won by Bush in 2000: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and West Virginia.

Winning either Ohio's 20 electoral votes or Florida's 27 would do the trick.

Bush easily won Ohio in 2000, but its lagging economy puts the state in play. Kerry must still reduce Bush's advantages among conservative, rural voters. Florida should favor Bush a bit more than in 2000, partly because of its relatively strong economy, but the war in Iraq (news - web sites) has helped keep the race close.

Nevada and West Virginia have a combined 10 electoral votes, enough to close the gap. New Hampshire, which neighbors Kerry's home state of Massachusetts, has four.

West Virginia voted Democratic for decades until Bush made values an issue in 2000; Kerry is stressing the theme this year. In Nevada, an influx of Hispanics and the administration's push to use Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste site make the state tougher for Bush than in 2000.

Six of the 11 tossup states were won by Gore: Pennsylvania, Oregon, Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin. But the margin of victory was just a few thousand votes in Iowa, New Mexico and Wisconsin — meaning Kerry has his work cut out to keep them.

Of the three, Bush likes his chances best in Wisconsin, where he is targeting rural voters in a bid to widen the electoral gap by 10 votes.

___

Flush with money and leading a united party, Kerry increased his odds by expanding the playing field into a handful of GOP states that Bush easily won in 2000, including Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Virginia and Colorado. Results have been mixed.

After testing the waters, Kerry pulled his ads from Arkansas and Louisiana, and downgraded his focus on Virginia and Arizona. Hispanic voters make Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it's a tough state to win.

"The race is still fundamentally tied, and the Electoral College map reflects that," said Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "But there is beginning to be a slight tilt toward us with Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and Arizona no longer being seriously contested."

Kerry added another Republican-leaning state to his target list when he chose Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) of North Carolina as his running mate. Aides are divided over whether North Carolina will remain a battleground through November, but its 15 electoral votes are too tempting to ignore.

Missouri, a traditional battleground, recently moved to the Bush-leaning category and is being written off by some Democrats. The Kerry campaign reduced its ad campaign in the state after polls showed him consistently 4 to 6 percentage points behind Bush, with little room for improvement.

Republican advantages in rural Missouri and the fast-growing exurbs make the state tough for Democrats, but Kerry will likely keep it on the table through November in case the political winds shift. Besides, abandoning a traditional battleground would be embarrassing.

The four-term Massachusetts senator has begun to gather strength in traditionally Democratic states such as Maine, Minnesota and Washington. All were tossups in the spring, but now lean toward Kerry. A good convention could push Pennsylvania and Oregon into the lean-Kerry category.

Recent polls give Kerry an edge in both states, but strategists for Kerry and Bush say the races are still tossup.

"There is an angry feeling toward the incumbent because of Iraq," said David Sweet, who managed Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell's 2000 campaign. "I think Kerry will win in the end, but that's partly based on an assumption of things to come. It's close."

Of the states won by Gore, Pennsylvania is by far Bush's top target. The president has spent millions of dollars in the state on commercials and has visited it more than any other contested state — 30 trips since his inauguration.

For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.

___

On the Net:

http://www.johnkerry.com

http://www.georgewbush.com

[Dog Gone]

For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.

Then Bush is smart to be targeting it so intensely.

[Davis]

You gotta read THIS about Kerry's campaign strategy!

[southernnorthcarolina]

The race may or may not be close, but both sides must design their strategy on the assumption that it will be. It is difficult to see how Kerry could win the election without taking Pennsylvania, and it's equally difficult to imagine President Bush being reelected without carrying Ohio. Expect both campaigns to spend a lot of time in those two states.

[Porterville]

The race isn't close, this is from Yahoo.... The La La Times is also reporting a close race.... to me that means in reality there are huge margines in favor of Bush

[Stepan12]

I think the media is keeping Kerry out of sight because he's such an unattractive candidate. It's well known that Kerry does better in the polls when people don't see him.

That being the case, it is reminiscent of that scene in that 70s movie, Walking Tall, where the original Sherrif was killed harassing Joe Don Baker (Buford Pusser) and all the corrupt gangsters say we have to do all we can to elect our dead sherrif so Buford Pusser does not become the sherrif.

The media's behavior in this election reminds of that scene out of Walking Tall.

[Christian Muniz]

We're getting a lot of Bush and Kerry here in PA. It's dumb to hear the media talking about national polls -- who cares where the polls are in California and Texas when we know where their electoral votes are going anyway? That's a good article -- hopefully the news coverage will focus more on that now.

[taxcontrol]

....make Colorado a prime target, but Democrats acknowledge it's a tough state to win.

---

And since I'm living in Colorado, I can assure you we are doing everything in our power to prevent the Dems from winning ANYTHING.

[lormand]

"The La La Times is also reporting a close race"

I believe the La La Times was sampling registered voters, versus likely voters. They tweak the variables in the polls, to suit their agenda.

I wouldn't expect anything different from them. Too bad that they are losing revenue. tsk tsk!

[unspun]

Here are some predictions - what do you think?

At least 7 of these 12 things will happen between August 1 election night, November 2:

1. The Bush Administration will thwart specific terrorist attack(s) -- at least in large part.

2. Evidence will be released demonstrating Saddam's activity coordinating WMD development in, or distribution to Libya, Sudan, Algeria, perhaps Syria, and perhaps more nations or terrorist organizations.

3. The economy will continue to grow, producing approx. 200,000 new jobs per month.

4. Greater numbers of voters will be motivated to come out and vote for W, due to his defense of marriage and his pro-life convictions, standing against destructive deconstructionists and blood thirsty abortionists, with revealed, scientific, and philosophical truth.

5. Charter members of the Axis of Evil: North Korea and Iran, will be increasingly seen as the threats they are, with voters supporting the wisdom of President Bush as a result.

6. Sandy Berger will either admit to being in collusion with Clinton, Kerry, and Gorelick, to hide the Clinton/Democrat failures to fight terrorism --or he will suddenly die.

7. John Kerry will shock America with a frustrated, angry, and obscenity laden outburst, in public, against the President and/or his supporters.

8. The unprecedented Democrat obstruction of the nominations of Federal Justices will help to cause the election of an additional 2+ Republican Senators, in addition the President's reelection.

9. George W. Bush will profit from a 40+% increase in African American votes, from those who prefer opportunity, responsibility and hope, to dependency upon government small change and The Democrat Plantation. Similar increases will exist among Hispanic and Asian Americans.

10. The Stock Market will be on the upswing from August through October as investors (most adults) see Bush consistently ahead of Kerry in the polls. This will also add to confidence in and votes for President Bush.

11. One of these three international terrorist leaders will be killed or captured: a. Abu Mussib al-Zarqawi, b. Mullah Omar, c. Osama Bin Ladin.

12. President Bush and sensible members of Congress will swiftly move forward on key anti-terrorism initiatives, based in part upon the 9-11 Commission. This will occur over the obstruction of liberal Democrats, who fear dynamic action will increase Republican votes. (It will.)

[SedVictaCatoni]

Numbers 5 and 9 won't happen, no matter what. 6, 7, and 8 probably won't happen.

[Stepan12]

11. One of these three international terrorist leaders will be killed or captured: a. Abu Mussib al-Zarqawi, b. Mullah Omar, c. Osama Bin Ladin.

Off the top of my head, 11(a) seems most likely to me.

[deport]

The race isn't close, this is from Yahoo....

---

This article is written by Ron Fournier Associate Press, not Yahoo..... It was on the Yahoo site among many others...

Most likely it won't be close but it doesn't hurt to work as if it is.... The two campaigns certainly have targeted battleground states as if it is close.

[Tall_Texan]

We know Fournier is a Demo suckup. There's a reason this story is presented this way. They have to undersell Kerry prior to the convention so they can make the convention appear to be a big triumph when the "bounce" numbers come in afterwards.

Just watch. After the convention, you'll see another story about how Kerry has all the momentum and enough electoral votes to win the presidency, yada yada yada.

The lib media is so predictable now I can almost write their stories for them.

[truth_seeker]

"6. Sandy Berger will either admit to being in collusion with Clinton, Kerry, and Gorelick, to hide the Clinton/Democrat failures to fight terrorism --or he will suddenly die."

This will NOT happen.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

[For Kerry, losing Pennsylvania would create a virtually insurmountable electoral vote gap.]

Then Bush is smart to be targeting it so intensely.

And hopefully, Bush-Rove will not bother spending in California as they did in 2000. Millions wasted.

[Drathaar]

I read that the Vegas oddsmakers give the election to Bush by a fairly good margin. Its looking good.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

I believe the La La Times was sampling registered voters, versus likely voters. They tweak the variables in the polls, to suit their agenda.

Ya don't say! Did you here the story weeks ago where they practically doubled the percentage of Democrats in one of their polls. I would sooner believe Bill Clinton than the LA Times! LOL!

[marblehead17]

ping

[So Cal Rocket]

We know Fournier is a Demo suckup. There's a reason this story is presented this way. They have to undersell Kerry prior to the convention so they can make the convention appear to be a big triumph when the "bounce" numbers come in afterwards.

Just watch. After the convention, you'll see another story about how Kerry has all the momentum and enough electoral votes to win the presidency, yada yada yada.

I was about to write the same thing (but luckily read the posts first - something unusual for me). This is the absolute truth... the media wants to show a big bounce coming out of the Dem Convention - so they have to downplay Kerry's position going into the convention.