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I have taken over maintaining the ping list for the ECB, so if you want on, let me know. Thank you Neets for all your help with it!
1 posted on 07/22/2004 12:30:21 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Neets; Coop; The G Man; nevergiveup; scan58; AuH2ORepublican; BoomerBob; Galatians513; onyx; ...

I have taken over maintaining the ping list for the ECB, so if you want on, let me know. Thank you Neets for all your help with it!


2 posted on 07/22/2004 12:31:03 PM PDT by Dales
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To: Dales

Thanks... but I think it will all boil down to one thing:

Gas prices.

I am not good as doing charts, but I have been finding an almost direct correlation between Bush's approval numbers and the price of gasoline. Gas goes up, Bush goes down... Gas goes down, Bush goes up...


4 posted on 07/22/2004 12:38:50 PM PDT by ambrose (Kerry is endorsed by the Communist Party USA)
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To: Dales

We gotta move those numbers!


5 posted on 07/22/2004 12:39:18 PM PDT by GVnana (Tagline? I don't need no stinkin' tagline!)
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To: Dales

I want on. Thanks


8 posted on 07/22/2004 12:46:32 PM PDT by Integrityrocks
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To: Dales

I hit your link for Florida at the bottom (where you total up the EVs) and it took me to your site. I noticed that you're posting your analysis for 7/15 here that rates Florida as Slight for Kerry, but your site has another entry for 7/20 that puts the state back into Tossup status. Did you find some problem with your 7/20 data?


10 posted on 07/22/2004 12:48:45 PM PDT by CFC__VRWC ( "While I take inspiration from the past, like most Americans, I live for the future. " - R. Reagan)
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To: Dales

My big question on Minnesota: what are pollsters using to model turnout, or are they just taking what the sample gives them and screening for likelies? 2002 was a sea change for the state, an acceleration of what might otherwise have been gradual Republicanization, but turnout was unusual because of Wellstone. Still, it seems silly to think that it will act like it did in 2000.


11 posted on 07/22/2004 12:49:08 PM PDT by JohnnyZ
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To: Dales
Don;t like the final numbers obviously, but I do like that they show an ever so slight trend toward Bush as the Edwards bump fades.

I would imagine that your next 2-4 updates will be very ugly indeed with the DNC bounce hitting. Hopefully by week 3 we will see some movement back toward Bush.

As long as the movement is back towards Bush throughout August, we can hope for a bump from the RNC in September.

Still maintain when all is said and done that your "Approval gap" analysis will prove out, and Bush will end up winning. No longer going to predict an electoral blowout, but neither do I expect an all night gut wrencher like 2000.

12 posted on 07/22/2004 12:51:02 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: Dales

Thanks...


18 posted on 07/22/2004 12:59:50 PM PDT by bert (Peace is only halftime !)
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To: Dales

The real battle begins shortly after the Republican Convention.

I was just watching the Cavuto report on Fox. Analysts say investors are starting to liquidate just in case the John John ticket gains strength. The promised tax increases are going to cause a bailout.


23 posted on 07/22/2004 1:10:46 PM PDT by gitmo (Thanks, Mel. I needed that.)
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To: Dales
D*mn, yer a smart cookie. How come you make more sense than 99.44% of the talking heads who get paid cash money to do lesser analyses than yours on TV in front of God and everybody?

So we have a Demo bounce next week, then the Olympics, then a Repub bounce. The real contest will begin on Labor Day. And pollsters will be busy beavers updating their national and battleground state numbers asap after the Repub Convention. For the same reason, I look forward very much to your first EC analsis after that point.

And P.S., put me on your ping list if I'm not there already.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "The Wussification of America: Fallout from Arnold, John and Sandy"

If you haven't already joined the anti-CFR effort, please click here.

24 posted on 07/22/2004 1:11:42 PM PDT by Congressman Billybob (www.ArmorforCongress.com Visit. Join. Help. Please.)
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To: Dales

add me to your list please


25 posted on 07/22/2004 1:12:30 PM PDT by exhaustedmomma (“John Kerry has fought harder for the Vietnamese communists than he fought against them in Vietnam.”)
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To: Dales

Ping me on everything you've got!


29 posted on 07/22/2004 2:24:51 PM PDT by libravoter (Live from the People's Republic of Cambridge)
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To: Dales

I got a question for you Dales. Have you been keping snapshots of your map as it's changed? It would be interesting to create an animation after the election watching the ebb and flow of polling as the election season went on. If you haven't, you could start now, and still have a really interesting animation after this is over.

Once again, we all appreciate and wait patiently for your weekly updates.


30 posted on 07/22/2004 2:45:58 PM PDT by JerseyHighlander
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To: Dales
As always, an excellent analysis. I go to your ECB/Blog first every morning and check it multiple times/day.

In the end, I can't stop thinking it will be "the economy stupid", which will effect the swing states the most. On Rasmussen he reported on July 20 that 32% of those polled think we are in a recession (we have not been in a recession since 2001). The interesting part is the split by party:
Democrats - 51%
Republicans - 19%
Independents - 32%

As more good news pours out during the summer on the improving economy, the Independents will feel better on the economy and move towards the incumbent, Bush.

For the main parties, the democrat response is just plain politics. However, I am shocked that 19% of Republicans think we are in a recession, with GDP current over 4% and unemployment at 5.6% while adding 1M jobs. These guys should come "home" as well.

Woody
32 posted on 07/22/2004 3:18:55 PM PDT by Bruin
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To: Dales
I get a worse feeling about this election every day. I am beginning to feel that unless Bush does something to bring people back, he is going to lose this election badly. Then we are under a total socialist rule. Our taxes will skyrocket and we will have to live with this liberal slime crap for years. The Hollyweirds will hold their huge Washington gala ousting Bush and the UN will grow in statute in this country. The great unwashed, the homosexuals, the lazies and deadbeats will have theirs and honest, God fearing, hard working people are going to be on the outside looking in. You can look for total abortion on demand, anti-church, anti-conservative, anti-conservative radio, anti-Fox news channel, anti-gun legislation, anti-anything positive to us is going to do down a slippery drain. Don't look for any help from the weak-kneed republican congressmen and senators. Slime like that McKinney in GA who won her primary will be back. I rarely watch TV and never read a newspaper anymore. I will have to start building the bunker because the Islamics are coming and we have the slime liberals already here along with 10 million illegals. This country is going to go through a nasty time. I feel it. I see it in my dreams. If Bush loses, we have an extremely hard road to toe. I firmly believe that.

And I am not just yelling doom here. I believe this country is under attack. By all enemies, foreign and domestic.

33 posted on 07/22/2004 3:30:36 PM PDT by RetiredArmy ( I am a Vietnam Vet. I have been accused of war crimes by the ADMITTED WAR CRIMINAL Kerry)
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To: Dales

Please add me to your ping list. Thanks.


35 posted on 07/22/2004 3:39:47 PM PDT by Tares
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To: Dales

Thanks so much for your hard work. I am going to visit your blog and drop a few $$$ in your tip jar. I invite other Freepers to do so, too.


38 posted on 07/22/2004 3:53:28 PM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts soooo good!)
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To: Dales

Please add me to your ping list.


42 posted on 07/22/2004 5:27:54 PM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts soooo good!)
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To: Dales

Please put me on the ping list. Thanks for all the great work that you do.

What would it look like if each candidate was credited with the electoral votes only of those states in which they were beyond the average moe of the average of non-partisan polls?

Also, how many tossups would there be?


45 posted on 07/23/2004 7:04:47 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army and Supporting Bush/Cheney 2004!)
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To: Dales

Thanks for a great job.

I would like to be on your list.

thanks


49 posted on 07/23/2004 9:26:54 AM PDT by nathanbedford
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