[xzins]

Please put me on the ping list. Thanks for all the great work that you do.

What would it look like if each candidate was credited with the electoral votes only of those states in which they were beyond the average moe of the average of non-partisan polls?

Also, how many tossups would there be?

[Dales]

Depends. When you say outside the MoE, do you mean outside of one span of the MoE (about an 84% chance the leading candidate is actually ahead) or outside (nearly) two spans of the MoE (which is what is normally meant by a poll being outside the MoE, which would mean the candidate leading has about a 97.5% chance of being ahead)?

The answer to the former (one span) is roughly the ECB Classic numbers from my website. I recommend using the numbers without Zogby's internet polls. That would currently be Kerry 229, Bush 215.

If you want completely outside the MoE (two spans) then that would roughly be the sum of just the strong and safe columns from that page, Kerry 189, Bush 141.