Electoral College Breakdown 2004, July 21st Update

ECB2004 ^ | 7/22/04

[Dales]

I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll

Approval Gap

A new phrase is about to become prevalent in the election year lexicon; "The Approval Gap" is simply the difference in support the President gets in the election match-up ("horserace") question in polls, and his job approval rating. Republican pollster Fabrizio, McLaughlin, and Associates did a (very flawed, due to an unacceptably small sample size) analysis of Approval Gap voters. Rasmussen will be doing a more comprehensive one within a few days.

Before these pollsters had picked up on the theme, and before the phrase "Approval Gap" had been coined, I had been pointing out this phenomenon to readers of Daly Thoughts and ECB2004. For example, when this Minnesota poll was released, I noted "According to Rasmussen, Bush's support level in Minnesota lags his approval rating by 6 points." Similarly, with New York, I wrote, "He lags his approval rating by 7 points in the horserace question". South Carolina also merited a similar comment: "the President's support level is below his in-state approval rating (here, by 5 points)".

The first incumbent President to show an approval gap since the advent of polling was Harry S. Truman. According to Gallup (as all subsequent poll numbers in this article will be unless otherwise noted), during 1948 Truman has an average approval rating of 48%, yet during the campaign he continually lagged behind Dewey. From March until early October his approval gap was about 10 points. The last poll taken (approximately two weeks before the election) showed the approval gap closing, with his horserace support level rising to 45%.

The next incumbent President to run for re-election was also the next to have an approval gap. Dwight Eisenhower had an impressive 72% average approval rating in 1956. His horserace support never approached that high, with its peak coming at 62 points near the end of spring. His 10-20 point approval gap remained, never dissipating even through the election. It did not matter, however, as the race never was in doubt. Stevenson never closed to within single digits.

Richard Nixon became the first incumbent President to not have an approval gap. In 1972 his approval rating was 56% on average, and from July onward his support level never dropped below this.

At the start of the campaign in 1976, President Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter were locked in a tight race. Consecutive polls starting in March showed it a 5-point, 1-point, and then 3-point race, with Ford's support being in the low to mid 40s. Then began a steady decline for him, and a steady rise for Carter, climaxing with a July poll showing Carter leading by the overwhelming margin of 62%-29%. The steady decline then reversed into a steady improvement, and by election day the race was too close to call. During the year, Ford's approval rating was significantly more steady, averaging 49% during the year without having a precipitous drop mid-year nor a subsequent rapid ascent.

The next two incumbent Presidents showed no approval gap. Jimmy Carter's average approval rating in 1980 was 38%, and his support level was generally at or above that point, except for a brief period of time bookending the Republican National Convention. In 1984, Reagan's support level hovered just slightly below his average job approval rating of 56% until the convention, and then just slightly above it.

The gap was back in 1992, with President George H. W. Bush generally lagging his already mediocre approval rating. While Bush's average approval rating was 41%, it dropped into the 30s during the summer. Still, his horserace numbers (particularly after Perot dropped out) tended to lag that average by up to 10 points. By October, Bush closed the approval gap, bringing the race to nearly a tie; consecutive polls had it a 2-point and then a 1-point race. Clinton withstood the charge, and pulled away at the end.

President Clinton also had an approval gap; his was between 5 and 7 points throughout the election campaign. It briefly went away at the Democrat National Convention, but shortly emerged again. It again vanished transiently after the candidate debates, only to come right back. Famously with President Clinton, his personal favorability ratings were well below his job approval ratings (which is normally not the case) and this undoubtedly contributed to the approval gap. As with Ike, the race was never really in question. Also as with Ike, the approval gap did not go away by the election.

Year	Incumbent	Average Approval Rating That Year	Typical Approval Gap During Race	Election Percentage	Final Approval Gap
1948	Truman	48%	10%	49.6%	1.6%
1956	Eisenhower	72%	10-20%	57.4%	14.6%
1972	Nixon	56%	-	60.7%	-4.7%
1976	Ford	49%	0-20%	48.2%	0.8%
1980	Carter	38%	-	41.0%	-3.0%
1984	Reagan	56%	-	58.8%	-2.8%
1992	Bush	41%	0-10%	37.5%	3.5%
1996	Clinton	56%	5-7%	49.2%	6.8%

As can be seen from the chart above, there is a tendency for an incumbent President's actual Election Day support to either be close to or above his election year average job approval rating. President Eisenhower's approval rating was so high that there was almost no way possible for his election day support to reach that level; it would have been unprecedented in modern times for a candidate to get that large of a portion of the popular vote. With President Clinton, the likely explanation is his personal favorability numbers; with the race not being close voters who simply did not like him as a person found no reason to hold their nose.

George W. Bush's mean approval rating so far in 2004 has been 51%, and if the past will be prologue, come Election Day he will get, at a minimum, fairly close to that percentage. If he lags his approval rating by the same amount as his father did, then on Election Day he will get about the same percentage of the popular vote he did in 2000, and the election will end up being similarly close. If the approval gap vanishes as it did with the other incumbents (if it ever existed) then with minor candidates taking the 1-2% they normally do, he will win the popular vote by three to four points, and his electoral vote margin will be larger as well.

The horserace numbers will continue to change throughout the campaign. There will probably be a bounce for Kerry in the aftermath of his convention, and Bush will likely get one after his. But elections involving an incumbent President tend to be all about the incumbent, and people who approve of him personally and in the job he has done are, in the end, going to pull the lever for him. If the Democrats want to avoid being swept aside in the wake of this magnetic pull, they are going to have to find a way to bring either his personal favorability rating down, or his job approval down.

This will not be an easy task for the Democrats. While earlier this year there was a lot of focus on the mediocre level of Bush's job approval rating, what was not mentioned was that Bush has avoided having his approval rating fall to low levels better than any President with the exceptions of John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower.

President	Lowest Approval Rating
Clinton	37%
Bush	29%
Reagan	35%
Carter	28%
Ford	37%
Nixon	24%
Johnson	35%
Kennedy	56%
Eisenhower	48%

George W. Bush's lowest approval rating, to date, in the same Gallup poll used for all the previous Presidents listed here, has been 46%.

Still, the Democrats have to try, and they will. Anyone who is expecting or anticipating the campaign becoming more positive is going to be disappointed.

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This Week's Polling Updates Overview

The polls this week included some conflicting results for Wisconsin and Arizona, as well as others showing a very tight race in the battleground states of Florida, Iowa, and Minnesota. Massachusetts, New York, Oklahoma, and Indiana remain uncompetitive.

The Battlegrounds:

State	2000 Result	Media Battleground	Current Status
New Jersey	Gore +16	No	Kerry, Lean
Michigan	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Oregon	Gore +0.4	Yes	Kerry, Lean
Iowa	Gore +0.3	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Minnesota	Gore +2	Yes	Kerry, Slight
West Virginia	Bush +6	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Maine	Gore +5	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Mexico	Gore +0.06	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Pennsylvania	Gore +4	Yes	Kerry, Slight
Florida	Bush +0.01	Yes	Kerry, Slight
New Hampshire	Bush +1	Yes	Tossup
Wisconsin	Gore +0.2	Yes	Tossup
Ohio	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Slight
Arkansas	Bush +5	Yes	Bush, Slight
Missouri	Bush +3	Yes	Bush, Slight
North Carolina	Bush +13	No	Bush, Lean
Virginia	Bush +8	No	Bush, Lean
Nevada	Bush +4	Yes	Bush, Lean

The scoreboard:

	Result	With Tossups
ECB	Bush 205, Kerry 203	Kerry 282, Bush 242
ECB Classic	Kerry 240, Bush 184	Kerry 305, Bush 222
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry 246, Bush 215	Kerry 265, Bush 263
Calculated National Result	Kerry 45.9%, Bush 44.9%

For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:

ECB	Kerry -17, Bush Unch.	Kerry Unch., Bush -10
ECB Classic	Kerry -13, Bush -10	Kerry -17, Bush +17
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive	Kerry +7, Bush -10	Kerry -17, Bush +7
Calculated National Result	Kerry -0.1%, Bush unchanged.

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	F		Iowa
			Electoral Votes: 7
			2000 Result
			Gore 48%
			Bush 46%

Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.

Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/12/03	Des Moines Register	Link	803 Adults	3.5%	Bush	41%	Unnamed Democrat	41%	Even
10/30/03	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	47%	Dem +1
1/5/04	Research 2000	Link	LV	4%	Bush	50%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +8
2/11/04	Selzer & Co.	NA	RV	3.4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
3/23/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +10
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
5/25/04	Research 2000	Link	604 LV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
			604 LV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +4
5/27/04	SurveyUSA	Link	794 LV	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +8
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	614 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.7%	Kerry	50.4%	Kerry +4.7
			614 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.4%	Kerry	47.7%	Kerry +3.3

Punditry: A 4.7 lead in a registered voter poll with a 4 point Margin of Error-- and when it is a four man race including Nader and Badnarik, it drops to a 3.3 point lead. The previous results show 3 of 4 having less than a 5 point margin. Iowa slides back to the Slight Advantage for Kerry designation, although it is a close call.

Addendum: This poll was conducted half before Edwards was announced, and half afterwards. Before he was named, the surveys were coming in tied. So which way will it go? Will the bounce be enduring and it open up to the 8 point race Rasmussen had in May? Or will the bounce fade and Iowa be tied yet again?

Addendum 2: Independents are impacted greatly in Iowa by the inclusion of Nader and Badnarik. Kerry has a slight advantage with independents without them, but lags by double digits with them included.

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	Indiana
	Electoral Votes: 11
	2000 Result
	Bush 57%
	Gore 41%

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
2/15/04	SurveyUSA	Link	525 RV	4.2%	Bush	51%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +6
3/24/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4.0%	Bush	52%	Kerry	37%	Bush +15
5/19/04	Selzer & Co.	Link	540 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Kerry	33%	Bush +21
6/21/04	Bellwether Poll	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	52%	Kerry	36%	Bush +16
7/12/04	Market Research Informatics	Link	852 RV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	27%	Bush +19

Punditry: A 19 point lead in a registered voter poll confirms my belief that Indiana is Safe for Bush. It is always amazing to see how much more solidly Republican Indiana is compared to the rest of the mid-west. The poll has a large number of undecideds, which probably means they did not push people to make a choice even slightly. Republican Mitch Daniels leads incumbent Governor Joe Kernan by 6 in this poll.

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	F		Wisconsin
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Gore 47.83%
			Bush 47.61%

Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
5/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	42%	Bush +11
10/28/03	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	46%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +1
1/27/04	Badger Poll	Link	Adults	4%	Bush	38%	Unnamed Democrat	54%	Dem +16
3/24/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	46%	Kerry +3
3/31/04	Badger Poll	Link	500 Adults, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	41%	Bush +6
			500 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	45%	Bush +4
4/21/04	Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center	Link	358 RV	5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +7
4/28/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV, Nader not an option	4.5%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +8
			500 LV, Nader an option	4.5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +4
4/28/04	Badger Poll	Link	511 Adults	4.5%	Bush	50%	Kerry	38%	Bush +12
5/9/04	Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D)	Link	?	?	Bush	40%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +9
6/8/04	LA Times	Link	694 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	42%	Bush +2
6/23/04	Badger Poll	Link	504 Adults, Nader an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	575 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	48.4%	Kerry	45.9%	Bush +2.5
			575 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	46.1%	Kerry	44.6%	Bush +1.5
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +6

Punditry: A significantly different result than other pollsters, and as has been the norm for American Research Group polls this election cycle, the results are favorable for Senator Kerry. Still, it seems prudent to slide Wisconsin over to the Tossup designation. Where the Center for Survey Research poll found independents strongly backing the President, American Research Group finds the opposite, with them backing Kerry 45%-39%.

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	North Carolina
	Electoral Votes: 15
	2000 Result
	Bush 56%
	Gore 43%

Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
9/16/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	51%	Edwards	40%	Bush +11
11/15/03	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	54%	Edwards	42%	Bush +12
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	53%	Kerry	39%	Bush +14
11/25/03	Survey USA	Link	563 RV	4.2%	Bush	52%	Edwards	45%	Bush +7
2/26/04	Survey USA	Link	654 RV	3.9%	Bush	53%	Kerry	42%	Bush +11
3/11/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	3%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/1/04	Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D)	No Link	LV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	44%	Bush +7
5/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	41%	Bush +7
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	44%	Bush +4
6/16/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	49%	Kerry	42%	Bush +7
7/12/04	Gallup	Link	680 LV	5%	Bush	56%	Kerry	41%	Bush +15
7/12/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	LV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	45%	Bush +3
7/14/04	Research2000	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	44%	Bush +5

Punditry: Research2000 confirms my suspicions that while the Gallup poll was an outlier, Bush still has a measurable advantage and the state still Leans Towards Bush; with a margin of error of 4%, there is greater than an 85% chance that a candidate leading by 5 points is actually ahead (if the survey is perfectly conducted, meaning that the likely voter screen did not remove anyone who actually will vote or include anyone who won't).

Del Ali, president of Research 2000 says, regarding Edwards in his homestate, "There is no groundswell", even as he notes that the race is more competitive than it ended up in 2000. Or, should I say, it is polling more competitive than it ended up being; back in 2000 it also was polling relatively competitively. American Research Group, in September, found it a 1 point race (and in May, a 5 point race). An October Mason-Dixon poll had it a 7 point race (and an earlier October M-D poll had it a four point race). Research2000 had it a 10 point race in late October, but a four point race in early October.

As a side note, I have had the pleasure of speaking with Mr. Ali about his work. He is a really nice guy to talk with, conscientious and polite and willing to answer a ton of questions about how his company does its work. Most people do not know this, but before starting his own polling company (now known as Research 2000), he was with Mason-Dixon.

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	Florida
	Electoral Votes: 27
	2000 Result
	Bush 48.85%
	Gore 48.84%

Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.

In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/29/03	Mason-Dixon	Link	RV	5%	Bush	53%	Unnamed Democrat	38%	Bush +15
12/3/03	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Unnamed Democrat	37%	Bush +6
1/15/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	LV	5%	Bush	47%	Unnamed Democrat	45%	Bush +2
2/27/04	Research 2000	Link	500 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	42%	Bush +5
3/4/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1
3/4/04	Schroth & Associates	Link	800 RV	3.5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +6
3/14/04	Rasmussen	Link	400 LV	5%	Bush	45%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +3
4/1/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 RV	4%	Bush	51%	Kerry	43%	Bush +8
4/13/04	Rasmussen Reports	Link	500 LV	5%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
4/21/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	45%	Bush +1
5/9/04	Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D)	Link	1000 LV	3%	Bush	47%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +3
5/19/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	47%	Kerry	46%	Bush +1
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	46%	Push
6/14/04	SurveyUSA	Link	723 LV	4%	Bush	50%	Kerry	43%	Bush +7
6/23/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +1
6/23/04	Fox Opinion Dynamics	Link	750 RV	4%	Bush	48%	Kerry	38%	Bush +10
6/27/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,209 RV, Nader not an option	3%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Kerry +2
			1,209 RV, Nader an option	3%	Bush	43%	Kerry	43%	Push
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	4%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
7/12/04	SurveyUSA	Link	LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	American Research Group	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
7/15/04	Strategic Vision	Link	LV	3%	Bush	48%	Kerry	46%	Bush +2

Punditry: Tempting to go tossup on the basis of conflicting results, but more of the recent results have been slightly favorable to Kerry so I will keep it at Slight Advantage for Kerry. The writeup does not give many details of the survey. Strategic Vision is based out of Atlanta, and has worked for both Republicans and Democrats as well as for the media (as in this case). Other than that, I do not know much about them.

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	Minnesota
	Electoral Votes: 10
	2000 Result
	Gore 48%
	Bush 46%

Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.

The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/26/04	Mason-Dixon	NA	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	43%	Kerry +2
3/25/04	Rasmussen	Link	500 LV	4.5%	Bush	44%	Kerry	47%	Kerry +3
4/2/04	Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll	Link	562 LV	4.1%	Bush	38%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +12
5/26/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	44%	Kerry +3
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	48%	Kerry +5
6/14/04	Public Opinion Strategies (R)	NA	LV	3.5%	Bush	42.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +4.3
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	50%	Kerry +9
7/12/04	Center for Survey Research and Analysis	Link	589 RV, two man race	4%	Bush	45.8%	Kerry	49.0%	Kerry +3.2
			589 RV, four man race	4%	Bush	44.2%	Kerry	46.5%	Kerry +2.3
7/16/04	Mason-Dixon	Link	625 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	45%	Kerry +1

Punditry: Sans Nader, it goes to a three point margin, altough the writeup did not give the exact numbers. Either way, Minnesota remains well within the range where either side could easily win it on election day, but with a Slight Advantage for Kerry.

Thanks for the flag, BlackRazor.

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	Oklahoma
	Electoral Votes: 7
	2000 Result
	Bush 60%
	Gore 38%

Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
3/1/04	Wilson Research	NA	300 RV	5.7%	Bush	50%	Kerry	40%	Bush +10
4/1/04	Insider Advantage	Link	400 Residents	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
5/20/04	Wilson Research	Link	500 RV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	34%	Bush +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	58%	Kerry	34%	Bush +24
6/23/04	SurveyUSA	Link	651 LV	4%	Bush	60%	Kerry	34%	Bush +26
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	63%	Kerry	31%	Bush +32
7/??/04	KOTV and Tulsa World	Link	LV	5%	Bush	59%	Kerry	35%	Bush +24

Punditry: Safe for Bush.

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	New York
	Electoral Votes: 31
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 35%

Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
4/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	39%	Dem +7
9/23/03	Marist	Link	RV	4%	Bush	32%	Unnamed Democrat	48%	Dem +16
10/28/03	Quinnipiac	NA	RV	4%	Bush	42%	Kerry	50%	Dem +8
11/19/03	Zogby	Link	LV	4%	Bush	41%	Kerry	46%	Dem +5
1/7/04	Marist	Link	617 RV	4%	Bush	34%	Unnamed Democrat	36%	Dem +2
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader an option	2.7%	Bush	35%	Kerry	49%	Kerry +14
4/12/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,279 RV, Nader not an option	2.7%	Bush	36%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +17
4/15/04	Marist	Link	602 RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/22/04	Siena Researh Institute	Link	625 RV	3.9%	Bush	32%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +19
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	57%	Kerry +23
6/14/04	Quinnipiac	Link	1,466 RV	3%	Bush	34%	Kerry	52%	Kerry +18
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	3%	Bush	30%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +28
7/15/04	Siena Research	Link	604 LV	4%	Bush	29%	Kerry	51%	Kerry +22

Punditry: Safe for Kerry. I like how the writeup says that the VPs are influencing the results, despite the fact that this is barely different than the last Siena poll done many weeks ago.

---

	Massachusetts
	Electoral Votes: 12
	2000 Result
	Gore 60%
	Bush 33%

Background: They like them liberal in Massachusetts. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
1/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	37%	Kerry	53%	Kerry +16
4/03	Mass. Insight	Link	457 Voters	4%	Bush	49%	Kerry	43%	Bush +6
12/03	KRC Communications Research	Link	RV	4%	Bush	38%	Kerry	56%	Kerry +18
4/5/04	University of Massachusetts	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	32%	Kerry	54%	Kerry +22
5/31/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	33%	Kerry	58%	Kerry +25
6/30/04	Rasmussen	Link	LV	5%	Bush	31%	Kerry	60%	Kerry +29
7/18/04	Suffolk University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	30%	Kerry	59%	Kerry +29

Punditry: Although the topline/horserace number is completely predictable, the poll itself has quite a number of interesting results. 42% of those polled said that John Edwards is not ready to be President. 47% said that Bush did not intentionally mislead the US about the need to invade Iraq. 60% said Kerry flip-flops on issues. In a state that is Safe for Kerry, those are not good numbers.

---

	F		Arizona
			Electoral Votes: 10
			2000 Result
			Bush 51%
			Gore 45%

Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.

Polling Data:

Date	Polling Company	Link	Type	MOE	Republican		Democrat		Margin
7/18/03	Behavior Research Center	Link	701 Adults	4.3%	Bush	55%	Unnamed Opponent	41%	Bush +14
1/11/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	641 Adults	3.9%	Bush	50%	Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean)	38%	Bush +12
2/19/04	SurveyUSA	Link	RV	4.3%	Bush	52%	Kerry	44%	Bush +8
2/22/04	Arizona State University	Link	430 RV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	46%	Dem +2
3/18/04	Survey USA	Link	634 LV	4.0%	Bush	51%	Kerry	42%	Bush +9
4/26/04	Arizona State University	Link	410 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	38%	Bush +3
5/4/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	555 RV, Nader not an option	4%	Bush	46%	Kerry	42%	Bush +4
			555 RV, Nader an option	4%	Bush	45%	Kerry	37%	Bush +8
5/23/04	Arizona State University	Link	377 RV	5%	Bush	43%	Kerry	38%	Bush +5
6/13/04	Market Solutions	Link	600 LV	4%	Bush	44%	Kerry	41%	Bush +3
6/27/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	47%	Kerry	35%	Bush +12
7/7/04	Behavior Research Center	Link	RV	5%	Bush	48%	Kerry	36%	Bush +12
7/14/04	Survey USA	Link	767 LV	4%	Bush	53%	Kerry	41%	Bush +12
7/18/04	Arizona State University	Link	400 RV	5%	Bush	41%	Kerry	42%	Kerry +1

Punditry: One of these is not like the others. Until given a reason to think differently, I am assuming this to be an outlier. Leaning Towards Bush.

Addendum: Sometimes, no worthwhile comment comes to me when posting my updates. Sometimes, a comment coaxes one out. I think this is such a case. Bob t writes:

Wow... yes, I think it almost certainly is an outlier, but you have to note that it's a big change from their 6/27/04 result. Looking at the margin of victory for Bush in '00, I'd guess that the final result lies pretty much toward the middle of the most recent ASU poll, and the results of the three polls that preceded it.

I replied thusly:

It is big. But it would be a prime example of something I try to preach--how inexact polls really are. The last ASU poll had Bush at 47. This has Bush at 41. That is all of a 6 point difference--- when each poll had a MoE of 5. The last ASU poll had Kerry at 35 and this one has it at 42--- with *each poll* having a MoE of 5.

Despite the fact that the last ASU poll had Bush up 12, and this one has Kerry up 1, if one is precisely right than the other is just barely outside of the MoE. And if the race happens to be something like Bush 45, Kerry 37, then both are within the MoE.

You get these swings within polls. You only know if they are real by doing more polls.

---

Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 45.9%, Bush 44.9%

Kerry E					F Bush
Safe	Strong	Lean	Slight	Tossup	Slight	Lean	Strong	Safe
DC (3)	DE (3)	WA (11) K50-B41 6/30/04	WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04	NH (4) B45-K44 6/20/04	OH (20) B48-K44 6/30/04	NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04	SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04	ND (3)
HI (4)	VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04	NJ (15) K51-B41 6/30/04	ME (4) K46-B45 6/30/04	WI (10) K48-B46 7/15/04	MO (11) B48-K46 7/8/04	TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04	LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04	NE (5)
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04	MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04	MI (17) K50-B43 K47-B44 7/8/04	NM (5) K49-B42 7/8/04	-	AR (6) B49-K47 7/12/04	CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04	KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04	WY (3)
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04	CA (55) K52-B38 6/30/04	OR (7) K50-B42 6/30/04	PA (21) K46-B41* 7/11/04	-	-	VA (13) B50-K45 7/8/04	GA (15) B52-K41 6/30/04	MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04
NY (31) K51-B29 7/12/04	IL (21) K53-B37 6/30/04	-	IA (7) K50.4-B45.7* 7/12/04	-	-	NC (15) B49-K44 7/14/04	SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04	UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04
MA (12) K59-B30 7/18/04	-	-	FL (27) K47-B44 B48-K46 7/15/04	-	-	-	AZ (10) K42-B41 7/18/04	MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04
-	-	-	MN (10) K45-B44 7/16/04	-	-	-	-	ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AL (9) B52-K38 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	OK (7) B59-K35 7/??/04
-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04
Totals
Kerry States			Battleground States			Bush States
61	92	50	79	14	37	53	53	99
203			130			205

* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.

[onyx]

Dale, your work is appreciated more than I am able to convey to you.

[CFC__VRWC]

Appreciate the info!

[gitmo]

The real battle begins shortly after the Republican Convention.

I was just watching the Cavuto report on Fox. Analysts say investors are starting to liquidate just in case the John John ticket gains strength. The promised tax increases are going to cause a bailout.

[Congressman Billybob]

D*mn, yer a smart cookie. How come you make more sense than 99.44% of the talking heads who get paid cash money to do lesser analyses than yours on TV in front of God and everybody?

So we have a Demo bounce next week, then the Olympics, then a Repub bounce. The real contest will begin on Labor Day. And pollsters will be busy beavers updating their national and battleground state numbers asap after the Repub Convention. For the same reason, I look forward very much to your first EC analsis after that point.

And P.S., put me on your ping list if I'm not there already.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, "The Wussification of America: Fallout from Arnold, John and Sandy"

If you haven't already joined the anti-CFR effort, please click here.

[exhaustedmomma]

add me to your list please

[HOYA97]

Add me to your ping list.

Thanks!

[Tamzee]

Amazing work, as always, and gratefully received. Please add me to your ping list so I don't miss any in the future?

[Tall_Texan]

I think your theory has some weight. Gas prices hit the pocketbook and what I worry is when it stays high long enough to set off the chain reaction where other companies raise their prices citing higher fuel costs. One raised, many never go back down even when gas prices fall.

If we are to believe the Saudis, we will get a break when the fall comes. In addition, I would hope we could get some oil from Iraq, maybe in return for some protection of their pipelines from the insurgents.

I think the war and gas prices will be the two big movers of this campaign, barring an unforseen event such as another terror attack. One also wonders if the loony left will, once again, overplay their hand and terrorize the GOP convention, pushing moderates over toward Bush.

[libravoter]

Ping me on everything you've got!

[JerseyHighlander]

I got a question for you Dales. Have you been keping snapshots of your map as it's changed? It would be interesting to create an animation after the election watching the ebb and flow of polling as the election season went on. If you haven't, you could start now, and still have a really interesting animation after this is over.

Once again, we all appreciate and wait patiently for your weekly updates.

[Dales]

One snapshot a week.

[Bruin]

As always, an excellent analysis. I go to your ECB/Blog first every morning and check it multiple times/day.

In the end, I can't stop thinking it will be "the economy stupid", which will effect the swing states the most. On Rasmussen he reported on July 20 that 32% of those polled think we are in a recession (we have not been in a recession since 2001). The interesting part is the split by party:
Democrats - 51%
Republicans - 19%
Independents - 32%

As more good news pours out during the summer on the improving economy, the Independents will feel better on the economy and move towards the incumbent, Bush.

For the main parties, the democrat response is just plain politics. However, I am shocked that 19% of Republicans think we are in a recession, with GDP current over 4% and unemployment at 5.6% while adding 1M jobs. These guys should come "home" as well.

Woody

[RetiredArmy]

I get a worse feeling about this election every day. I am beginning to feel that unless Bush does something to bring people back, he is going to lose this election badly. Then we are under a total socialist rule. Our taxes will skyrocket and we will have to live with this liberal slime crap for years. The Hollyweirds will hold their huge Washington gala ousting Bush and the UN will grow in statute in this country. The great unwashed, the homosexuals, the lazies and deadbeats will have theirs and honest, God fearing, hard working people are going to be on the outside looking in. You can look for total abortion on demand, anti-church, anti-conservative, anti-conservative radio, anti-Fox news channel, anti-gun legislation, anti-anything positive to us is going to do down a slippery drain. Don't look for any help from the weak-kneed republican congressmen and senators. Slime like that McKinney in GA who won her primary will be back. I rarely watch TV and never read a newspaper anymore. I will have to start building the bunker because the Islamics are coming and we have the slime liberals already here along with 10 million illegals. This country is going to go through a nasty time. I feel it. I see it in my dreams. If Bush loses, we have an extremely hard road to toe. I firmly believe that.

And I am not just yelling doom here. I believe this country is under attack. By all enemies, foreign and domestic.

[snooker]

When you consider the lies being spewed by the media on a nightly basis, I am surprised Bush's numbers are this high.

After the dim convention, we gotta kick it up a couple of notches.

I still think Bush wins by a wide margin. Look what happened in CA with AS.

[Tares]

Please add me to your ping list. Thanks.

[DeaconBenjamin]

The lack of Lieberman will keep the south FL, Jewish pro-Dem vote down. MHO.

I believe Cameron Kerry is working that constituency pretty hard.

[the Deejay]

I believe this country is under attack. By all enemies, foreign and domestic.

I felt like that after the '92 election, until GWB was elected.

However! I do believe GWB will win again. It's just all the constant vile coming from the left that really puts me off.

[Truth is a Weapon]

Thanks so much for your hard work. I am going to visit your blog and drop a few $$$ in your tip jar. I invite other Freepers to do so, too.

[johniegrad]

These numbers plain suck. Hope we hang onto congress.

Nonsense, my FRiend. The bump expected from the convention for the Democrats will not materialize because Clinton's book release forced Kerry to announce his VP pick already and that will add nothing to the convention. Also, the Republican convention will boost the Pubblies. Furthermore, the continued wartime situation will boost Bush in the polls after the two conventions barring any unforeseen disaster.

Don't discount the fact that the more the public sees of Kerry the less they like him.

The polarized electorate leaves very few undecided to bump Kerry one way or the other.

Finally, the closer we get to the election and the more national security takes the center stage the stronger Bush stands and the weaker the nation's number one liberal looks.

Fear not. The national popular vote may be 52% to 46% Bush but the Electoral College will be more decisive. I have tremendous confidence in this result because God will not allow the American people to be misled.

On the other hand, if you are a troll, fear greatly, because socialism is about to take a backseat to individual liberty.

[hunter112]

These numbers are not making me feel better.

They're great numbers, considering the spring season that Bush has had. The prison abuse scandal, the death toll in Iraq, the 9/11 commission, all that stuff is behind him now. Also, Kerry's post convention bump will be nonexistent, since he's already divulged the only thing people in the mushy middle watch a convention for, and that is the naming of the VP.

The summer driving season will be over in a month or so, gas prices will come back down, Iraq is slipping out of the papers, and the Kerry scandals are just getting started. Karl Rove is saving his best ammunition for Sept/Oct, and the Rats have Nader to worry about, especially if he makes it in to even one debate.

Besides, if there is another terrorist attack, it will remind people why they want Condi Rice as National Security Advisor, and not the Sandburglar.