Posted on 07/22/2004 12:30:19 PM PDT by Dales
The Battlegrounds:
State | 2000 Result | Media Battleground | Current Status |
---|---|---|---|
New Jersey | Gore +16 | No | Kerry, Lean |
Michigan | Gore +5 | Yes | Kerry, Lean |
Oregon | Gore +0.4 | Yes | Kerry, Lean |
Iowa | Gore +0.3 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Minnesota | Gore +2 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
West Virginia | Bush +6 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Maine | Gore +5 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
New Mexico | Gore +0.06 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Pennsylvania | Gore +4 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
Florida | Bush +0.01 | Yes | Kerry, Slight |
New Hampshire | Bush +1 | Yes | Tossup |
Wisconsin | Gore +0.2 | Yes | Tossup |
Ohio | Bush +4 | Yes | Bush, Slight |
Arkansas | Bush +5 | Yes | Bush, Slight |
Missouri | Bush +3 | Yes | Bush, Slight |
North Carolina | Bush +13 | No | Bush, Lean |
Virginia | Bush +8 | No | Bush, Lean |
Nevada | Bush +4 | Yes | Bush, Lean |
The scoreboard:
Result | With Tossups | ||
---|---|---|---|
ECB | Bush 205, Kerry 203 | Kerry 282, Bush 242 | |
ECB Classic | Kerry 240, Bush 184 | Kerry 305, Bush 222 | |
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive | Kerry 246, Bush 215 | Kerry 265, Bush 263 | |
Calculated National Result | Kerry 45.9%, Bush 44.9% |
For the trends, the changes in each are as follows:
ECB | Kerry -17, Bush Unch. | Kerry Unch., Bush -10 |
ECB Classic | Kerry -13, Bush -10 | Kerry -17, Bush +17 |
ECB Classic Sans Zogby Interactive | Kerry +7, Bush -10 | Kerry -17, Bush +7 |
Calculated National Result | Kerry -0.1%, Bush unchanged. |
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F | ![]() |
Iowa |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 7 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Gore 48% | |||
Bush 46% |
Background: Iowa is a state of streaks, going 1-5-4 over the last 10. Clinton would likely have lost his first campaign against Bush had Perot not been a factor. The state is generally close, with the only surprisingly large margin coming when Dukakis beat Bush by 10 points.
Iowa rated a slight advantage to Bush in the first ECB of 2000. This time, it rates a slight advantage to the Democrats. Other positions in Iowa are mixed. The Republicans hold 4 of the 5 House seats, and the Senate seats are split. The Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature, but the Democrats hold all major executive offices except for Auditor. Republicans hold a 32% to 29% advantage in registration.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/12/03 | Des Moines Register | Link | 803 Adults | 3.5% | Bush | 41% | Unnamed Democrat | 41% | Even |
10/30/03 | Research 2000 | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 47% | Dem +1 |
1/5/04 | Research 2000 | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% | Bush +8 |
2/11/04 | Selzer & Co. | NA | RV | 3.4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +7 |
3/23/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +10 |
4/21/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +1 |
5/25/04 | Research 2000 | Link | 604 LV, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +5 |
604 LV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +4 | |||
5/27/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 794 LV | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +3 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +8 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +4 |
7/12/04 | Center for Survey Research and Analysis | Link | 614 RV, two man race | 4% | Bush | 45.7% | Kerry | 50.4% | Kerry +4.7 |
614 RV, four man race | 4% | Bush | 44.4% | Kerry | 47.7% | Kerry +3.3 |
Punditry: A 4.7 lead in a registered voter poll with a 4 point Margin of Error-- and when it is a four man race including Nader and Badnarik, it drops to a 3.3 point lead. The previous results show 3 of 4 having less than a 5 point margin. Iowa slides back to the Slight Advantage for Kerry designation, although it is a close call.
Addendum: This poll was conducted half before Edwards was announced, and half afterwards. Before he was named, the surveys were coming in tied. So which way will it go? Will the bounce be enduring and it open up to the 8 point race Rasmussen had in May? Or will the bounce fade and Iowa be tied yet again?
Addendum 2: Independents are impacted greatly in Iowa by the inclusion of Nader and Badnarik. Kerry has a slight advantage with independents without them, but lags by double digits with them included.
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Indiana |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 11 | |
2000 Result | |
Bush 57% | |
Gore 41% |
Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2/15/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 525 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 51% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +6 |
3/24/04 | Bellwether Poll | Link | 600 LV | 4.0% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 37% | Bush +15 |
5/19/04 | Selzer & Co. | Link | 540 LV | 4% | Bush | 54% | Kerry | 33% | Bush +21 |
6/21/04 | Bellwether Poll | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 36% | Bush +16 |
7/12/04 | Market Research Informatics | Link | 852 RV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 27% | Bush +19 |
Punditry: A 19 point lead in a registered voter poll confirms my belief that Indiana is Safe for Bush. It is always amazing to see how much more solidly Republican Indiana is compared to the rest of the mid-west. The poll has a large number of undecideds, which probably means they did not push people to make a choice even slightly. Republican Mitch Daniels leads incumbent Governor Joe Kernan by 6 in this poll.
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Wisconsin |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 10 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Gore 47.83% | |||
Bush 47.61% |
Background: I got the *BLEEP* kicked out of me in Wisconsin. Oh wait, sorry. Stripes flashback. Reagan won here twice. Nixon won here three times. LBJ and Carter (against Ford) won here, and then the Democrats have taken the last four elections here. The first of Clinton's wins would have been a loss for him without Perot.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5/03 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 42% | Bush +11 |
10/28/03 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 46% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +1 |
1/27/04 | Badger Poll | Link | Adults | 4% | Bush | 38% | Unnamed Democrat | 54% | Dem +16 |
3/24/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Unnamed Democrat | 46% | Kerry +3 |
3/31/04 | Badger Poll | Link | 500 Adults, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +6 |
500 Adults, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +4 | |||
4/21/04 | Wisconsin Public Radio / St. Norbert College Survey Center | Link | 358 RV | 5% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +7 |
4/28/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV, Nader not an option | 4.5% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +8 |
500 LV, Nader an option | 4.5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +4 | |||
4/28/04 | Badger Poll | Link | 511 Adults | 4.5% | Bush | 50% | Kerry | 38% | Bush +12 |
5/9/04 | Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) | Link | ? | ? | Bush | 40% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +9 |
6/8/04 | LA Times | Link | 694 RV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +2 |
6/23/04 | Badger Poll | Link | 504 Adults, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +4 |
7/12/04 | Center for Survey Research and Analysis | Link | 575 RV, two man race | 4% | Bush | 48.4% | Kerry | 45.9% | Bush +2.5 |
575 RV, four man race | 4% | Bush | 46.1% | Kerry | 44.6% | Bush +1.5 | |||
7/15/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +6 |
Punditry: A significantly different result than other pollsters, and as has been the norm for American Research Group polls this election cycle, the results are favorable for Senator Kerry. Still, it seems prudent to slide Wisconsin over to the Tossup designation. Where the Center for Survey Research poll found independents strongly backing the President, American Research Group finds the opposite, with them backing Kerry 45%-39%.
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North Carolina |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 15 | |
2000 Result | |
Bush 56% | |
Gore 43% |
Background: Since Lyndon Johnson's win here, only once have the Democrats taken Tar Heel electors. That's a bit deceptive, however, as many times it was extremely close. Carter lost to Reagan here by only two points in that nationwide blowout. Clinton lost two elections by a combined total of 5%. Yet the Clinton losses are also deceptive, in that the margins would have been considerably larger without Perot and his charts. Simply stated, like much of the south North Carolina votes Republican for President, although a southerner atop the ticket can make things interesting; not always though, as Al Gore demonstrated.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9/16/03 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Edwards | 40% | Bush +11 |
11/15/03 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 54% | Edwards | 42% | Bush +12 |
11/25/03 | Survey USA | Link | 563 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 39% | Bush +14 |
11/25/03 | Survey USA | Link | 563 RV | 4.2% | Bush | 52% | Edwards | 45% | Bush +7 |
2/26/04 | Survey USA | Link | 654 RV | 3.9% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +11 |
3/11/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 400 LV | 3% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +8 |
4/1/04 | Bennett, Petts and Blumenthal (D) | No Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +7 |
5/12/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +7 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +4 |
6/16/04 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +5 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +7 |
7/12/04 | Gallup | Link | 680 LV | 5% | Bush | 56% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +15 |
7/12/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +3 |
7/14/04 | Research2000 | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +5 |
Punditry: Research2000 confirms my suspicions that while the Gallup poll was an outlier, Bush still has a measurable advantage and the state still Leans Towards Bush; with a margin of error of 4%, there is greater than an 85% chance that a candidate leading by 5 points is actually ahead (if the survey is perfectly conducted, meaning that the likely voter screen did not remove anyone who actually will vote or include anyone who won't).
Del Ali, president of Research 2000 says, regarding Edwards in his homestate, "There is no groundswell", even as he notes that the race is more competitive than it ended up in 2000. Or, should I say, it is polling more competitive than it ended up being; back in 2000 it also was polling relatively competitively. American Research Group, in September, found it a 1 point race (and in May, a 5 point race). An October Mason-Dixon poll had it a 7 point race (and an earlier October M-D poll had it a four point race). Research2000 had it a 10 point race in late October, but a four point race in early October.
As a side note, I have had the pleasure of speaking with Mr. Ali about his work. He is a really nice guy to talk with, conscientious and polite and willing to answer a ton of questions about how his company does its work. Most people do not know this, but before starting his own polling company (now known as Research 2000), he was with Mason-Dixon.
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Florida |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 27 | |
2000 Result | |
Bush 48.85% | |
Gore 48.84% |
Background: Despite the best efforts of the results-oriented Florida Supreme Court, Bush held on to win the state in 2000, just as nearly every recount conducted afterwards validated. Did you know that since 1948, though, that only three times has Florida gone for the Democrat candidate? Johnson got 51%, Carter got 52%, and Clinton (2nd term) got 48% (with Perot taking 9%). More times than not, the Republican has come closer to 60%. Why Bush underperformed here to such a degree is something his campaign must rectify.
In the first ECB of 2000, Florida was listed as a battleground with a slight advantage to Gore. This time around, it is starting with a slight advantage for Bush. Florida has 6 Democrat Representatives and 18 Republicans. Both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by the Republicans. Republicans control most of the executive branch. However, both Senate seats are held by Democrats. As of Dec. 1, 2003, the state registration was 41.9% Democrat and 38.6% Republican.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/29/03 | Mason-Dixon | Link | RV | 5% | Bush | 53% | Unnamed Democrat | 38% | Bush +15 |
12/3/03 | Schroth & Associates | Link | 800 RV | 3.5% | Bush | 43% | Unnamed Democrat | 37% | Bush +6 |
1/15/04 | Rasmussen Reports | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Unnamed Democrat | 45% | Bush +2 |
2/27/04 | Research 2000 | Link | 500 LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +5 |
3/4/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +1 |
3/4/04 | Schroth & Associates | Link | 800 RV | 3.5% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +6 |
3/14/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 400 LV | 5% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +3 |
4/1/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | 625 RV | 4% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +8 |
4/13/04 | Rasmussen Reports | Link | 500 LV | 5% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +1 |
4/21/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 45% | Bush +1 |
5/9/04 | Hamilton, Beattie and Staff (D) | Link | 1000 LV | 3% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +3 |
5/19/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 46% | Bush +1 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 46% | Push |
6/14/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 723 LV | 4% | Bush | 50% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +7 |
6/23/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +1 |
6/23/04 | Fox Opinion Dynamics | Link | 750 RV | 4% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 38% | Bush +10 |
6/27/04 | Quinnipiac | Link | 1,209 RV, Nader not an option | 3% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 46% | Kerry +2 |
1,209 RV, Nader an option | 3% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 43% | Push | |||
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +5 |
7/12/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +3 |
7/15/04 | American Research Group | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +3 |
7/15/04 | Strategic Vision | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 46% | Bush +2 |
Punditry: Tempting to go tossup on the basis of conflicting results, but more of the recent results have been slightly favorable to Kerry so I will keep it at Slight Advantage for Kerry. The writeup does not give many details of the survey. Strategic Vision is based out of Atlanta, and has worked for both Republicans and Democrats as well as for the media (as in this case). Other than that, I do not know much about them.
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Minnesota |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 10 | |
2000 Result | |
Gore 48% | |
Bush 46% |
Background: Nixon (against McGovern) is the only Republican winner since Ike. Reagan (against Carter) and Bush (against Gore) made it close, and it is possible that Dole could have beaten Clinton sans Perot. The Reagan race that was close was notable because it was against the homestate Mondale.
The slight advantage for the Democrats is a step up from the leaning Gore position at the start of ECB 2000. Minnesota's legislative seats are split right down the middle. Half of the Representatives, half of the Senate seats, and one of the state legislative chambers are held by each party. Most of the important executive branch offices are held by Republicans with the exception of Attorney General.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/26/04 | Mason-Dixon | NA | LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 43% | Kerry +2 |
3/25/04 | Rasmussen | Link | 500 LV | 4.5% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 47% | Kerry +3 |
4/2/04 | Star-Tribune Minnesota Poll | Link | 562 LV | 4.1% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +12 |
5/26/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | 625 LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 44% | Kerry +3 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 48% | Kerry +5 |
6/14/04 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | NA | LV | 3.5% | Bush | 42.2% | Kerry | 46.5% | Kerry +4.3 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 50% | Kerry +9 |
7/12/04 | Center for Survey Research and Analysis | Link | 589 RV, two man race | 4% | Bush | 45.8% | Kerry | 49.0% | Kerry +3.2 |
589 RV, four man race | 4% | Bush | 44.2% | Kerry | 46.5% | Kerry +2.3 | |||
7/16/04 | Mason-Dixon | Link | 625 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 45% | Kerry +1 |
Punditry: Sans Nader, it goes to a three point margin, altough the writeup did not give the exact numbers. Either way, Minnesota remains well within the range where either side could easily win it on election day, but with a Slight Advantage for Kerry.
Thanks for the flag, BlackRazor.
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Oklahoma |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 7 | |
2000 Result | |
Bush 60% | |
Gore 38% |
Background: Republicans have won every election here since LBJ.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3/1/04 | Wilson Research | NA | 300 RV | 5.7% | Bush | 50% | Kerry | 40% | Bush +10 |
4/1/04 | Insider Advantage | Link | 400 Residents | 5% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 35% | Bush +12 |
5/20/04 | Wilson Research | Link | 500 RV | 4% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 34% | Bush +19 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 58% | Kerry | 34% | Bush +24 |
6/23/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | 651 LV | 4% | Bush | 60% | Kerry | 34% | Bush +26 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 63% | Kerry | 31% | Bush +32 |
7/??/04 | KOTV and Tulsa World | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 59% | Kerry | 35% | Bush +24 |
Punditry: Safe for Bush.
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New York |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 31 | |
2000 Result | |
Gore 60% | |
Bush 35% |
Background: From 1960 onward, Republicans have carried the Empire State only three times. Nixon beat McGovern, Reagan beat Carter, and Reagan beat Mondale. Even Dukakis won here.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4/03 | Marist | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 32% | Unnamed Democrat | 39% | Dem +7 |
9/23/03 | Marist | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 32% | Unnamed Democrat | 48% | Dem +16 |
10/28/03 | Quinnipiac | NA | RV | 4% | Bush | 42% | Kerry | 50% | Dem +8 |
11/19/03 | Zogby | Link | LV | 4% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 46% | Dem +5 |
1/7/04 | Marist | Link | 617 RV | 4% | Bush | 34% | Unnamed Democrat | 36% | Dem +2 |
4/12/04 | Quinnipiac | Link | 1,279 RV, Nader an option | 2.7% | Bush | 35% | Kerry | 49% | Kerry +14 |
4/12/04 | Quinnipiac | Link | 1,279 RV, Nader not an option | 2.7% | Bush | 36% | Kerry | 53% | Kerry +17 |
4/15/04 | Marist | Link | 602 RV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 56% | Kerry +18 |
4/22/04 | Siena Researh Institute | Link | 625 RV | 3.9% | Bush | 32% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +19 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 34% | Kerry | 57% | Kerry +23 |
6/14/04 | Quinnipiac | Link | 1,466 RV | 3% | Bush | 34% | Kerry | 52% | Kerry +18 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 3% | Bush | 30% | Kerry | 58% | Kerry +28 |
7/15/04 | Siena Research | Link | 604 LV | 4% | Bush | 29% | Kerry | 51% | Kerry +22 |
Punditry: Safe for Kerry. I like how the writeup says that the VPs are influencing the results, despite the fact that this is barely different than the last Siena poll done many weeks ago.
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Massachusetts |
---|---|
Electoral Votes: 12 | |
2000 Result | |
Gore 60% | |
Bush 33% |
Background: They like them liberal in Massachusetts. Reagan did carry the state twice (barely), and Ike took it twice, but that's about it since 1924. Most of the time it has not been very close at all.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1/03 | Mass. Insight | Link | 457 Voters | 4% | Bush | 37% | Kerry | 53% | Kerry +16 |
4/03 | Mass. Insight | Link | 457 Voters | 4% | Bush | 49% | Kerry | 43% | Bush +6 |
12/03 | KRC Communications Research | Link | RV | 4% | Bush | 38% | Kerry | 56% | Kerry +18 |
4/5/04 | University of Massachusetts | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 32% | Kerry | 54% | Kerry +22 |
5/31/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 33% | Kerry | 58% | Kerry +25 |
6/30/04 | Rasmussen | Link | LV | 5% | Bush | 31% | Kerry | 60% | Kerry +29 |
7/18/04 | Suffolk University | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 30% | Kerry | 59% | Kerry +29 |
Punditry: Although the topline/horserace number is completely predictable, the poll itself has quite a number of interesting results. 42% of those polled said that John Edwards is not ready to be President. 47% said that Bush did not intentionally mislead the US about the need to invade Iraq. 60% said Kerry flip-flops on issues. In a state that is Safe for Kerry, those are not good numbers.
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Arizona |
---|---|---|---|
Electoral Votes: 10 | |||
2000 Result | |||
Bush 51% | |||
Gore 45% |
Background: Since Harry Truman, only Bill Clinton (during his re-elect) has carried the Grand Canyon State for the Democrats. Clinton also made it close with the help of Perot in 1992. Other than that, things have been surprisingly one-sided. Arizona has 6 of 8 of its Representatives and both of its Senators from the GOP. The GOP also controls both chambers of the state legislature. The top of the executive branch is run by Democrats, with Janet Napolitano being a first term Governor and Terry Goddard being the Attorney General. Most other top executive offices are held by Republicans. Republicans have a 41% to 35% lead in voter registration.
Polling Data:
Date | Polling Company | Link | Type | MOE | Republican | Democrat | Margin | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7/18/03 | Behavior Research Center | Link | 701 Adults | 4.3% | Bush | 55% | Unnamed Opponent | 41% | Bush +14 |
1/11/04 | Behavior Research Center | Link | 641 Adults | 3.9% | Bush | 50% | Highest Ranking Democrat (Dean) | 38% | Bush +12 |
2/19/04 | SurveyUSA | Link | RV | 4.3% | Bush | 52% | Kerry | 44% | Bush +8 |
2/22/04 | Arizona State University | Link | 430 RV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 46% | Dem +2 |
3/18/04 | Survey USA | Link | 634 LV | 4.0% | Bush | 51% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +9 |
4/26/04 | Arizona State University | Link | 410 RV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 38% | Bush +3 |
5/4/04 | Behavior Research Center | Link | 555 RV, Nader not an option | 4% | Bush | 46% | Kerry | 42% | Bush +4 |
555 RV, Nader an option | 4% | Bush | 45% | Kerry | 37% | Bush +8 | |||
5/23/04 | Arizona State University | Link | 377 RV | 5% | Bush | 43% | Kerry | 38% | Bush +5 |
6/13/04 | Market Solutions | Link | 600 LV | 4% | Bush | 44% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +3 |
6/27/04 | Arizona State University | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 47% | Kerry | 35% | Bush +12 |
7/7/04 | Behavior Research Center | Link | RV | 5% | Bush | 48% | Kerry | 36% | Bush +12 |
7/14/04 | Survey USA | Link | 767 LV | 4% | Bush | 53% | Kerry | 41% | Bush +12 |
7/18/04 | Arizona State University | Link | 400 RV | 5% | Bush | 41% | Kerry | 42% | Kerry +1 |
Punditry: One of these is not like the others. Until given a reason to think differently, I am assuming this to be an outlier. Leaning Towards Bush.
Addendum: Sometimes, no worthwhile comment comes to me when posting my updates. Sometimes, a comment coaxes one out. I think this is such a case. Bob t writes:
Wow... yes, I think it almost certainly is an outlier, but you have to note that it's a big change from their 6/27/04 result. Looking at the margin of victory for Bush in '00, I'd guess that the final result lies pretty much toward the middle of the most recent ASU poll, and the results of the three polls that preceded it.I replied thusly:
It is big. But it would be a prime example of something I try to preach--how inexact polls really are. The last ASU poll had Bush at 47. This has Bush at 41. That is all of a 6 point difference--- when each poll had a MoE of 5. The last ASU poll had Kerry at 35 and this one has it at 42--- with *each poll* having a MoE of 5.Despite the fact that the last ASU poll had Bush up 12, and this one has Kerry up 1, if one is precisely right than the other is just barely outside of the MoE. And if the race happens to be something like Bush 45, Kerry 37, then both are within the MoE.
You get these swings within polls. You only know if they are real by doing more polls.
Effective National Popular Results: Kerry 45.9%, Bush 44.9% |
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Kerry E | F Bush | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Safe | Strong | Lean | Slight | Tossup | Slight | Lean | Strong | Safe | |
DC (3) | DE (3) | WA (11) K50-B41 6/30/04 |
WV (5) K47-B44 6/17/04 |
NH (4) B45-K44 6/20/04 |
OH (20) B48-K44 6/30/04 |
NV (5) B49-K38 3/17/04 |
SD (3) B50-K35 5/21/04 |
ND (3) | |
HI (4) | VT (3) K51-B36 5/1/04 |
NJ (15) K51-B41 6/30/04 |
ME (4) K46-B45 6/30/04 |
WI (10) K48-B46 7/15/04 |
MO (11) B48-K46 7/8/04 |
TN (11) B51-K41 6/21/04 |
LA (9) B48-K42 5/31/04 |
NE (5) | |
RI (4) K49-B25 6/14/04 |
MD (10) K53-B39 6/30/04 |
MI (17) K50-B43 K47-B44 7/8/04 |
NM (5) K49-B42 7/8/04 |
- | AR (6) B49-K47 7/12/04 |
CO (9) B48-K43* 6/18/04 |
KY (8) B52-K39 6/8/04 |
WY (3) | |
CT (7) K50-B32* 6/28/04 |
CA (55) K52-B38 6/30/04 |
OR (7) K50-B42 6/30/04 |
PA (21) K46-B41* 7/11/04 |
- | - | VA (13) B50-K45 7/8/04 |
GA (15) B52-K41 6/30/04 |
MS (6) B61.2-K30.0 4/21/04 |
|
NY (31) K51-B29 7/12/04 |
IL (21) K53-B37 6/30/04 |
- | IA (7) K50.4-B45.7* 7/12/04 |
- | - | NC (15) B49-K44 7/14/04 |
SC (8) B51-K44 7/12/04 |
UT (5) B67-K22 5/10/04 |
|
MA (12) K59-B30 7/18/04 |
- | - | FL (27) K47-B44 B48-K46 7/15/04 |
- | - | - | AZ (10) K42-B41 7/18/04 |
MT (3) B53-K33 5/26/04 |
|
- | - | - | MN (10) K45-B44 7/16/04 |
- | - | - | - | ID (4) B55-K25 6/14/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | TX (34) B55-K37 6/30/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | AL (9) B52-K38 6/30/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | AK (3) B56-K33*R 6/30/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | KS (6) B56-K36 6/30/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | OK (7) B59-K35 7/??/04 |
|
- | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | IN (11) B47-K26* 7/12/04 |
|
Totals |
|
||||||||
Kerry States | Battleground States | Bush States | |||||||
61 | 92 | 50 | 79 | 14 | 37 | 53 | 53 | 99 | |
203 | 130 | 205 |
* Indicates a Registered Voter poll as opposed to a Likely Voter poll.
*R Indicates a partisan Republican poll. *D Inidcates a partisan Democrat poll.
** Indicates a poll of either adults or residents.
I am one that agrees with that - I don't expect Kerry to get more then a 5 to 7 point bounce - Though, if he does it is a sure sign the public is looking elsewhere (away from GWB) -
The big fear I see - is that I travel between MI and NC (weekly) - and I really get the sense when talking with people (most from MI,OH & NC) (flight stops in Cincinnati) - I really get a sense of "detachment" from many "middle-American" types -
Just a complete detachment from our successes - be it on the WOT, Iraq or with the economy -
This type of detachment attitude cannot be over-looked -
Please add me to your ping list.
Please add me to the ping list, thanks!
Please put me on the ping list. Thanks for all the great work that you do.
What would it look like if each candidate was credited with the electoral votes only of those states in which they were beyond the average moe of the average of non-partisan polls?
Also, how many tossups would there be?
The answer to the former (one span) is roughly the ECB Classic numbers from my website. I recommend using the numbers without Zogby's internet polls. That would currently be Kerry 229, Bush 215.
If you want completely outside the MoE (two spans) then that would roughly be the sum of just the strong and safe columns from that page, Kerry 189, Bush 141.
Thank you for your time in replying.
The above numbers are what I had in mind. That indicates about 205+- ec votes in play.
Far from over, isn't it?
Yep.
Thanks for a great job.
I would like to be on your list.
thanks
". It is widely believed that incumbents cannot win if under 50% in approval because undecideds will largely decide against them. "
I know this is a wide belief. It is a mistaken one, however. There is no evidence to support the belief that undecideds break to the challenger in Presidential elections, and a good amount of evidence that the opposite is true (see both this article and the one on my site called "Breaking Conventional Wisdom".
Well, I am glad to be wrong about this. It also leaves me free to part company from Dick Morris - a twofer.
I don't see how Clinton did so well assuming he was actually listening to Dick Morris. I have never seen a pundit so consistently wrong about everything. I think out of all the times I have seen, heard or read Morris this year, I have found his analysis to be correct about twice.
I note your analysis of approval gap relates it to the AVERAGE of those numbers. I have been following Real Clear Politics collection of those numbers, - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_ja.html
but the whole year's values which are listed here are not very encouraging seeming to average in the 40s.
Can you comment on whether Bush can hope to benefit from a late surge arising, for example, out of an improving economy?
The track record suggests that the incumbent does as well or better than his year-long Gallup average, not his year long Gallup/ABC/WashingtonPost/Zogby/Pew/Fox/Younameit average.
Could Bush's approval rating go up? Sure. Will it? Dunno. Time will tell.
Add me please Dales
Do you think the phenomenon applies to improved approval numbers achieved late in the compaign, or only to the average?
When I did my research, it seemed the relationship was stronger with the approval ratings throughout the year. Why this is, I do not know.
Thanks.
I appreciate your time.
Gerry,
Have you seen the NBSA poll referenced in amother post here on FR???
I was fascinated to see the poll results from the National Small Business Association (NSBA) regarding this years election. I expected to see heavy Bush support here, but I did not expect the HUGE support in the Battleground states. Bush had a least a 20 POINT LEAD in virtually every state.
http://www.nsbaadvocate.com/docs/2004_white_house_survey.pdf
Given the importance of small businesses in this country, I hope to see new Bush advertisements telling the story of this poll!!!!!
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I Wouldn't Touch It With a 10 Foot Poll
Approval Gap
A new phrase is about to become prevalent in the election year lexicon; "The Approval Gap" is simply the difference in support the President gets in the election match-up ("horserace") question in polls, and his job approval rating. Republican pollster Fabrizio, McLaughlin, and Associates did a (very flawed, due to an unacceptably small sample size) analysis of Approval Gap voters. Rasmussen will be doing a more comprehensive one within a few days.Before these pollsters had picked up on the theme, and before the phrase "Approval Gap" had been coined, I had been pointing out this phenomenon to readers of Daly Thoughts and ECB2004. For example, when this Minnesota poll was released, I noted "According to Rasmussen, Bush's support level in Minnesota lags his approval rating by 6 points." Similarly, with New York, I wrote, "He lags his approval rating by 7 points in the horserace question". South Carolina also merited a similar comment: "the President's support level is below his in-state approval rating (here, by 5 points)".
The first incumbent President to show an approval gap since the advent of polling was Harry S. Truman. According to Gallup (as all subsequent poll numbers in this article will be unless otherwise noted), during 1948 Truman has an average approval rating of 48%, yet during the campaign he continually lagged behind Dewey. From March until early October his approval gap was about 10 points. The last poll taken (approximately two weeks before the election) showed the approval gap closing, with his horserace support level rising to 45%.
The next incumbent President to run for re-election was also the next to have an approval gap. Dwight Eisenhower had an impressive 72% average approval rating in 1956. His horserace support never approached that high, with its peak coming at 62 points near the end of spring. His 10-20 point approval gap remained, never dissipating even through the election. It did not matter, however, as the race never was in doubt. Stevenson never closed to within single digits.
Richard Nixon became the first incumbent President to not have an approval gap. In 1972 his approval rating was 56% on average, and from July onward his support level never dropped below this.
At the start of the campaign in 1976, President Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter were locked in a tight race. Consecutive polls starting in March showed it a 5-point, 1-point, and then 3-point race, with Ford's support being in the low to mid 40s. Then began a steady decline for him, and a steady rise for Carter, climaxing with a July poll showing Carter leading by the overwhelming margin of 62%-29%. The steady decline then reversed into a steady improvement, and by election day the race was too close to call. During the year, Ford's approval rating was significantly more steady, averaging 49% during the year without having a precipitous drop mid-year nor a subsequent rapid ascent.
The next two incumbent Presidents showed no approval gap. Jimmy Carter's average approval rating in 1980 was 38%, and his support level was generally at or above that point, except for a brief period of time bookending the Republican National Convention. In 1984, Reagan's support level hovered just slightly below his average job approval rating of 56% until the convention, and then just slightly above it.
The gap was back in 1992, with President George H. W. Bush generally lagging his already mediocre approval rating. While Bush's average approval rating was 41%, it dropped into the 30s during the summer. Still, his horserace numbers (particularly after Perot dropped out) tended to lag that average by up to 10 points. By October, Bush closed the approval gap, bringing the race to nearly a tie; consecutive polls had it a 2-point and then a 1-point race. Clinton withstood the charge, and pulled away at the end.
President Clinton also had an approval gap; his was between 5 and 7 points throughout the election campaign. It briefly went away at the Democrat National Convention, but shortly emerged again. It again vanished transiently after the candidate debates, only to come right back. Famously with President Clinton, his personal favorability ratings were well below his job approval ratings (which is normally not the case) and this undoubtedly contributed to the approval gap. As with Ike, the race was never really in question. Also as with Ike, the approval gap did not go away by the election.
As can be seen from the chart above, there is a tendency for an incumbent President's actual Election Day support to either be close to or above his election year average job approval rating. President Eisenhower's approval rating was so high that there was almost no way possible for his election day support to reach that level; it would have been unprecedented in modern times for a candidate to get that large of a portion of the popular vote. With President Clinton, the likely explanation is his personal favorability numbers; with the race not being close voters who simply did not like him as a person found no reason to hold their nose.
George W. Bush's mean approval rating so far in 2004 has been 51%, and if the past will be prologue, come Election Day he will get, at a minimum, fairly close to that percentage. If he lags his approval rating by the same amount as his father did, then on Election Day he will get about the same percentage of the popular vote he did in 2000, and the election will end up being similarly close. If the approval gap vanishes as it did with the other incumbents (if it ever existed) then with minor candidates taking the 1-2% they normally do, he will win the popular vote by three to four points, and his electoral vote margin will be larger as well.
The horserace numbers will continue to change throughout the campaign. There will probably be a bounce for Kerry in the aftermath of his convention, and Bush will likely get one after his. But elections involving an incumbent President tend to be all about the incumbent, and people who approve of him personally and in the job he has done are, in the end, going to pull the lever for him. If the Democrats want to avoid being swept aside in the wake of this magnetic pull, they are going to have to find a way to bring either his personal favorability rating down, or his job approval down.
This will not be an easy task for the Democrats. While earlier this year there was a lot of focus on the mediocre level of Bush's job approval rating, what was not mentioned was that Bush has avoided having his approval rating fall to low levels better than any President with the exceptions of John F. Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower.
George W. Bush's lowest approval rating, to date, in the same Gallup poll used for all the previous Presidents listed here, has been 46%.
Still, the Democrats have to try, and they will. Anyone who is expecting or anticipating the campaign becoming more positive is going to be disappointed.