[nathanbedford]

As someone who has been routinely bashed for pessimism and at the risk of being dismissed for reflexive chronic, contrariness, I would like to say that I am much encouraged especially by Dales attention to the approval gap. It is widely believed that incumbents cannot win if under 50% in approval because undecideds will largely decide against them. But it is my thesis that the horserace numbers will ultimately accommodate themselves to the approval numbers and right now that draws Bush above 51%.

In times of active war, we vote the war. In times of relative peace, we vote our pocketbooks. In times of prosperity, we vote values.

Most of the time, approval numbers are set by the economy. As Iraq hopefully fades as a concern as we move away from the handover, I expect the electorate to judge Bush more and more by the economy. Even though the electorate misunderstands the economy and even though the polls show most trust Kerry more on this issue, I believe this is a hopeful situation for Bush because, like the horserace numbers conforming to the approval numbers, I believe the approval numbers must eventually conform to economic realities providing, of course, that Bush can make a better case based on this reality than did his father.

Most encouraging is the absence of an Edwards bounce from which I intuit that Bush has now lost about all the support he is going to lose. He is down to pretty solid support and this is at a relatively high level. But I also do not think he has much upside past the 51 to 52% range. It might get higher with the economy, but he hasn't shown that he can make the sale on this issue.

Finally, Bush is extremely vulnerable to sudden reversal of fortune such as in Iraq where still is a hostage to events, or in the homeland, or at the gas pump.

[Dales]

I agree with you that those are Bush's two primary vulnerabilities.

". It is widely believed that incumbents cannot win if under 50% in approval because undecideds will largely decide against them. "

I know this is a wide belief. It is a mistaken one, however. There is no evidence to support the belief that undecideds break to the challenger in Presidential elections, and a good amount of evidence that the opposite is true (see both this article and the one on my site called "Breaking Conventional Wisdom".