I don't see how Clinton did so well assuming he was actually listening to Dick Morris. I have never seen a pundit so consistently wrong about everything. I think out of all the times I have seen, heard or read Morris this year, I have found his analysis to be correct about twice.
I note your analysis of approval gap relates it to the AVERAGE of those numbers. I have been following Real Clear Politics collection of those numbers, - http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_ja.html
but the whole year's values which are listed here are not very encouraging seeming to average in the 40s.
Can you comment on whether Bush can hope to benefit from a late surge arising, for example, out of an improving economy?