[Dales]

I use the Gallup average, since this keeps the comparison valid across years since their methodology has not changed over years. Mixing in ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Pew, and other polls would make comparisons to past years' impossible.

The track record suggests that the incumbent does as well or better than his year-long Gallup average, not his year long Gallup/ABC/WashingtonPost/Zogby/Pew/Fox/Younameit average.

Could Bush's approval rating go up? Sure. Will it? Dunno. Time will tell.

[nathanbedford]

Do you think the phenomenon applies to improved approval numbers achieved late in the compaign, or only to the average?