Posted on 07/14/2004 7:03:08 AM PDT by Valin
Time to make a fool of myself. On June 4, I posted my prediction for the Presidential election on my office wall. I have President Bush carrying 36 states and winning 348 electoral votes. It sounds kind of crazy, and I’ve felt rather lonely with it for about a month. But after more reading I see that I’m not the only person on Earth who doesn’t think it will be close.
Number-crunching economists such as Ray Fair and Nigel Gault agree with me. Their econometric models are predicting Bush will take 56% to 58% of the two-party vote. As of this writing, the Iowa futures-traders are slightly less optimistic, but they are valuing the Bush vote share at about 52% of the two-party vote—and that's just two days after John Kerry’s selection of John Edwards as his running-mate. Previously Bush futures have been selling at 60 cents for a $1 contract.
So why do I think will Bush win big? I may be wrong, but I have several reasons. Here are just three that are hitting the front pages right now.
1. The Running Mate: Vice presidential nominees rarely make a difference—probably Lyndon Johnson was the last one who did. Still, the choice of John Edwards was expected to give Kerry a momentary bounce in the polls.
Well, a handful of new polls came out at the end of last week, and it just hasn’t happened. If anything, Bush improved his standing, surging to a 49%-45% lead in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Thursday. That was a statistically significant 5% improvement for Bush over their previous poll.
This is not to say Edwards is actually bringing the ticket down, but his failure to help Kerry in the short run is curious. Perhaps the public doesn’t share the media’s enthusiasm for the young Democratic messiah?
For all his good looks, John Edwards is a political lightweight. He went straight from fooling jurors and swindling doctors as a trial lawyer, to buying himself a Senate seat in 1998 over the hapless Sen. Lauch Faircloth (R.-N.C.). And that's his whole career. If John Edwards were running for re-election this year in North Carolina, polls suggest that he would probably lose. That dims his regional appeal, which was always one of the main arguments for his selection.
It’s not just Republicans who are saying Edwards won’t help Kerry in the South, but Kerry himself, speaking in the universal language of “putting your money where your mouth is.” Despite recent public polls showing Kerry competitive with Bush in two must-win Red states—in a dead heat in Arkansas and six points back in Louisiana—Kerry decided to stop advertising in those states a week before making his veep choice.
Kerry did not make a major mistake choosing Edwards—he is probably the best of Kerry's realistic options, although an unexpected dark-horse candidate could have been more exciting. Rep. Dick Gephardt (D.-Mo.) has always been a dud on the stump, and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D.), in many ways the safe choice, is not flashy enough to excite people outside of Iowa. Besides, John Kerry is a snooty, boring Massachusetts liberal, and John Edwards balances him out by bringing some “levitas” to the ticket.
Then again, he might bring a bit too much. President Bush found the right line when a reporter asked him last week the difference between Edwards and Vice President Dick Cheney. His reply: “Dick Cheney can be President...Next?”
2. Same-Sex Marriage: This issue will directly affect the presidential contest in two important states: Michigan and Oregon. Voters there will be deciding on state constitutional amendments to protect traditional marriage. This will create a strong turnout on the social Right in two states where self-identified Republicans and Democrats are already near parity.
In Oregon, which Bush narrowly lost in 2000, this alone could be decisive. Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t had a good Republican year since Geoffrey Feiger—Dr. Jack “Death” Kevorkian’s lawyer—ran for governor as a Democrat in 1998. But Michigan is by no means a Democratic state.
Missouri Secretary of State (and gubernatorial candidate) Matt Blunt (R.) failed in his attempt to put a marriage initiative on the November ballot; voters will instead take it up in the August primary. But same-sex marriage will indeed be important there and elsewhere, especially after this week when the U.S. Senate votes on a constitutional amendment defining marriage as the union of one man and one woman.
Kerry and Edwards—if they show up to vote this week—will almost certainly vote “no” on FMA. All rhetorical dodges aside, this places them firmly in favor of same-sex marriage, and you can bet Republicans won’t let anyone forget it.
There is another aspect of this, as Kerry and Edwards are already quietly selling themselves as “the gay ticket.” Last May, Edwards took a big risk by endorsing radical social experimentation on helpless children—or as he called it, “the rights of gays and lesbians to adopt children.” The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force Policy Institute issued a statement last week calling Kerry/Edwards “the most gay-supportive national ticket in American history.” This definitely isn’t going to win them support from blue-collar voters in West Virginia or Ohio.
3. ‘Dude, Your Country’s Right Here’: If you watch a lot of CNN and read the New York Times, you might get the impression that many people actually heed the hard Left. You would also be surprised to hear that things are actually going pretty well in America right now. The average person who doesn’t read The Nation or belong to an anarchist commune realizes this.
Kerry can scream all he wants about the economy, but people are now finding jobs, and good economic numbers keep rolling in. Interest rates are still quite low, unemployment claims have fallen to a four-year nadir, hundreds of thousands of new jobs are being created by the month, self-employment has surged, and the stock market is back on the upswing. Kerry has even abandoned that line he used to drop all the time about “the worst economy since Herbert Hoover,” because he had to—it’s obviously silly and false.
And what of Iraq, that other huge crisis that will supposedly decide the election? As much as Michael Moore and others on the Left complain about that ill-considered invasion, the situation there has stabilized considerably of late and casualties are relatively few. This is not exactly Vietnam, where everyone knew someone who had died.
And oh, in case you’ve forgotten, the Democratic ticket now has two senators on it who voted to go to war in Iraq. Both Kerry and Edwards will complain about the war’s particulars, but Kerry has no right to do so. He’s the one who drew up the Bush War Plan, letter by letter, in a September 2002 op-ed in the New York Times—including the part about a unilateral invasion if the United Nations fails to act.
Next to Kerry, Edwards looks positively hawkish. While Kerry spent the entire presidential primary obfuscating his pro-war position on Iraq, Edwards was trumpeting his support for the war. In February 2002, just months after al Qaeda terrorists—not Iraqis—had destroyed the World Trade Center, Edwards declared on CNN, “I think Iraq is the most serious and imminent threat to our country.” On MSNBC's Hardball in October 2003, he reiterated his support for the already-completed invasion, despite the lack of support from the United Nations: “I think we couldn’t let those who could veto in the Security Council hold us hostage,” he said.
So both Democrats have endorsed the unilateral Bush foreign policy that has the hard Left in hysterics. I haven’t seen the news stories yet on how Edwards’ selection will generate extra support for Nader—I don’t expect Times reporters to write anything that could throw their candidate off-message—but you can bet it’s going to happen.
Most important of all, George W. Bush just isn’t Adolf Hitler, Dick Cheney is not the “spawn of Satan,” our civil liberties are still very much intact, and America is not being irretrievably destroyed or thrown into a new Great Depression.
It’s an awful challenge to remove a sitting president. It only happens when things are going terribly wrong, which they are not—Michael Moore notwithstanding.
David Freddoso, Assistant Editor for Human Events, writes for Brainwash
Statistics say that only 1/4 of Christians vote.
I do believe that if we could get another 1/4 of Christians educated and motivated to vote we would win every state.
Oregon's Defense of Marriage initiative received more signatures than any other ballot initiative in the state's history. This proves that the issue has galvanized the conservatives and others who want to protect marriage in the state.
Since Bush is a visible and vocal supporter for the Defense of Marriage, these voters---most of whom did not vote in 2000---will show up at the polls to vote for the initiative, and more than likely, they'll also vote for Bush.
It was shortly after Iowa that a guy I work with (Politicly Dan is a Bulls fan and a bowler) comes up and asks me "When are the (expletive) democrats gonna (expletive) nominate someone I can (expletive) vote for? This guy Kerry what a (expletive) loser!"
Where I work the french one is NOT well thought of. Even the two young lefties I work with are keeping a very low profile.
and where exactly is that almost $100 MILLION per day in Iraq oil revenues going anyway?....
I'm gonna take a WAG and say Iraq. Bold and reckless I know but that's just the kind of guy I am.
If I may suggest some site to go look at.
IRAQ THE MODEL
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/
Healing Iraq
http://healingiraq.blogspot.com/
Iraqi Bloggers Central
http://jarrarsupariver.blogspot.com/
hehe....you should know better..thems fighting words here..
I've thought (well, hoped) for a while that President Bush will get 55% of the vote in the three way race. I just pray he's well enough over the 50% mark that the Dems can't claim that if only Ralph Nader hadn't been in the race, Jean al Query could have won. I want them to shut the hell up, though that is TRULY wishful thinking.
Never let 'em see you sweat. Keep in mind that DUh and Team Kerry monitor this site.
"Perhaps the public doesn’t share the media’s enthusiasm for the young Democratic messiah?"
Geeee .. an author with brains.
They must have sinced changed there tune. One of my friends listens to NPR (he finds them funny in there delusions). They claim now that it was only a few percent (something like 4% or 5%) that seperated 41 and Dukakis, and that just a few more points, and he would have won.
I asked my buddy about Mondale, he claims NPR still believes that Mondale lost because Reagan outspent him and fooled the voters, also that Jimmy Carter lost because he had a primary and presidents that have primaries always lose.
What Bush rally? In Texas? I didn't know anything about one here.
You are a little fool.
Another point the author fails to make is that sitting Senators rarely ever get elected President. Kennedy did it in 1960, but that was because of fraud. If you want to be President, its best to first be a Governor.
Well Red, it's like this......I can tell by your snippy, sniveling, response you're the typical Bushbot that is unprepared to debate the issues at hand. I just laid out various items that have occurred over the last couple years that have many people furious with Bush and his advisors....sorry if that offends your very tender feelings but it's the reality of the situation. Plus, I didn't even mention the Bush adminstrations very quiet efforts to give Social Security to illegals that have worked in this country and have gone back to Mexico! As if SS won't be strained enough in the near future these fools want to plunder the system even more to assist those who've broken federal law and literally care nothing for this country.....what a friggin' joke! What do you think would happen to his re-election efforts if that little item was broadcast as the lead story on the national news?.....he'd be toast before you could say "matricula card".
So, believe what you wish and continue to live in your little sad make believe world where you can pretend certain realities don't exist and try to grow some stones real soon so you can at least present a viable debate.....it's not much fun dealing with such a lightweight.
That just might be the case so if you're such an obviously informed, astute individual on these issues why don't you step up and educate me as to where I'm wrong so far.
I won't waste my time with you. It is clear from your other posts that you wouldn't listen to anything anyway.
Figured as much....next time you take a cheap shot at least have the stones to back it up....that's what a Texian does.
I have everything I would need to back up all of my statements.
But, the fact remains, you are not worth my time.
This will be my last post to you.
You are not going to get me into some pointless debate with you. I know your type and I have no use for you.
Is that clear?
If you want to equate this invasion of illegals that's costing us billions in OUR tax $ to support, these idiotic matricula cards that gives de facto citizenship to these same invaders, the coming FTAA trade pact that will erode our national sovereignty even further, Social Security giveaways etc. as being "pointless" then it's obvious you're clueless as to what's really happening to this country......stick with something you can handle....Scott Peterson, MJ, or Kobe.
Golly gee wiz! What a tired comeback.
Do you take medication to be that pathetic, or is it genetic? Bye-bye, little one.
Yeah, g-bye to another gutless wonder ....have fun sipping on that RINO kool-aid.
I've been saying all year that Bush will win in a landslide.
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