Bush aide foresees early lead for Kerry -July's convention may push Demo to 55-40 edge, he says

Deseret News ^ | 7/6/04 | Ken Herman

[NYC Republican]

Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry reacts after a speech by his wife Monday at an Independence Day celebration in Fox Chapel, Penn.

Gerald Herbert, Associated Press In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce." "We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo. Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August. Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention. Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate. Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as Kerry has kept mum about his preference. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out. Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday. "No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," he told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of." The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said that Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington. But the officials cautioned about reading too much into that, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry. On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process. Kerry will speak to the NEA convention on Tuesday. "We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop common-sense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president. The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in 15 battleground states targeted by the association. Kerry on Monday hosted an Independence Day picnic near Pittsburgh that included supporters from Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, three November battleground states. The presumptive Democratic nominee will campaign in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington, D.C., this week. Bush, who will do a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Friday, had no public events on Monday. Instead, he went for a bike ride in Maryland. He was taken to a Secret Service facility in Beltsville, Maryland Md., for a bike ride.

[NYC Republican]

I sure hope he's only downplaying expectations for President Bush... I can't imagine that SKerry will get a 15 point bump.

[Numbers Guy]

I sure hope he's only downplaying expectations for President Bush

Bingo.

[SolidSupplySide]

Expectations management is political game I hate. I know both sides do it, but in this particular instance, it is Matthew Dowd who is compromising his credibility.

[dawn53]

The Bush Administration has always had a habit of downplaying, IMHO.

Reminds me of the press release that went out just before 2002 elections saying that the party of the White House usually loses seats during midterm elections, so don't get your hopes up.

[EggsAckley]

Sounds like balderdash to me.

[anniegetyourgun]

If he isn't up by double digits after his convention, Bush has it walking away. Remember, keep your eye on the finish line.....not the mile markers.

[Lightfinger]

I disagree.

This is actually a brilliant strategy. Historically, there is a pretty massive bump during the first political convention, which evens up when the second convention happens.

Now, by predicting at 15 point bump, Dowd has put the bar up way too high for the Kerry campaign. If they don't get near that number, it is going to be a nail in the Kerry coffin, because Bush will come out of the Republican convention with the traditional bump the second convention gives.

After the Republican convention, Bush will have a 5 point lead over Kerry unless Kerry has the predicted bump.

[deport]

By Ken Herman
Cox News Service

WASHINGTON — Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce."

"We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo.

Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August.

  Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention.

Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate.

Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as Kerry has kept mum about his preference. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out. Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday.

"No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," he told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of."

The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said that Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington.

But the officials cautioned about reading too much into that, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry.

On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process.

Kerry will speak to the NEA convention on Tuesday.

"We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop common-sense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president.

The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in 15 battleground states targeted by the association.

Kerry on Monday hosted an Independence Day picnic near Pittsburgh that included supporters from Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, three November battleground states. The presumptive Democratic nominee will campaign in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington, D.C., this week.
      Bush, who will do a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Friday, had no public events on Monday. Instead, he went for a bike ride in Maryland. He was taken to a Secret Service facility in Beltsville, Maryland Md., for a bike ride.

---

[randog]

Convention bumps are nothing new, although I don't think they will be 15 points. IIRC, in the last election they were around 10 points. Either way, they quickly subside.

[Russ]

The bounce will be whatever the media wants it to be. If they want a 15 point bounce that will be what is reported. It could even be higher if Kerry doesn't do anything to upset them before September...

Also. don't be surprised if, after the Republican convention, the media reports "Bush Fails To Get Bounce In Polls"

[beckett]

Bush has a serious chance of failing to win re-election. It is simply not discountable that his reasons for taking the country to war have proven to be largely unfounded.

Was he being honest in the buildup to war? It's hard to know, since he's so fatally inarticulate he hasn't been able to mount a clear defense of the rhetoric that was flying around before the invasion.

Just a few months ago I felt certain the nation's security depended upon proving to our enemies that Americans will stand behind a war leader, and I felt pretty confident that a majority of American voters would agree with me and re-elect Bush, if for no other reason than for that one alone. Lately I've started to go wobbly on that position.

If the Democrats can make a case that his war leadership has harmed the country unnecessarily and done little to enhance our security, they can win. The Bush team had better get off its butt and start explaining why Iraq was worth 800 lives, thousands wounded, billions of the nation's treasure, and the heavy hit our reputation and standing has taken around the world.

Or else Bush will be a one termer just like his Daddy.

[the Real fifi]

Since most of the conventions will not be publicized, I fail to see that the old patterns will prevail.

[the Real fifi]

Publicized should be TELEVIZED..

[CzarNicky]

My prediction is that Kerry will get a negligible bump coming out of the democrat convention then the press will declare that the era of convention bumps is over. When Bush gets a significant bump coming out of the Republican convention those stories will mysteriously disappear.

[misterrob]

Remember Dukakis/Bush I? MD had a huge lead coming out of his convention then lost it big time.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Just a few months ago I felt certain the nation's security depended upon proving to our enemies that Americans will stand behind a war leader, and I felt pretty confident that a majority of American voters would agree with me and re-elect Bush, if for no other reason than for that one alone. Lately I've started to go wobbly on that position.

Sooner or later the Saudi regime will fall. When that happens, would the US be in a better position with a friendly Iraq, or a militant Saddam's Iraq, that aligned with Syria, Iran, and Wahhabi/AQ SA would surround tiny Kuwait and Bahrain? Not to mention the oil situation, the weak link in our economy....

[Mr. Bird]

Is that you, Moby?

[beckett]

You make some interesting points. Too bad Bush doesn't, or can't, make them, too.

One of the real problems for the Bush team is that so much of what makes the war justifiable can only be mentioned sotto voce. And sotto voce just doesn't work when an electorate has to be rallied.

[Doctor Stochastic]

Two big problems for Bush:

The economy isn't in better shape than when he came in. The markets are still down (killing SS privatization) and unemployment is up. The tax cuts are good but not being played up enough.

Many people I know consider that the war on Iraq drew resources away from the war on terrorism. They were saying this long before the attack on Iraq. Ben-Laden is still at large; Al-Qaeda is seen as stronger than ever; Iraq is seen as another quagmire.

Of course, "Kerry isn't Bush" may not be enough to win; it's a good start though.

[NittanyLion]

The Bush team had better get off its butt and start explaining why Iraq was worth 800 lives, thousands wounded, billions of the nation's treasure, and the heavy hit our reputation and standing has taken around the world.

I suspect the best they can do in this regard is to gain agreement on the Buckley/Will line: knowing what we do now the same decision would not have been made, but at the time we acted on the best information we had.

Not a very compelling case, and how do you make it? The administration is virtually forced to maintain its stance that Iraq had WMDs and a link to Al Qaeda, even while less and less of the public believes it to be the case.