[randog]

Convention bumps are nothing new, although I don't think they will be 15 points. IIRC, in the last election they were around 10 points. Either way, they quickly subside.

[Russ]

The bounce will be whatever the media wants it to be. If they want a 15 point bounce that will be what is reported. It could even be higher if Kerry doesn't do anything to upset them before September...

Also. don't be surprised if, after the Republican convention, the media reports "Bush Fails To Get Bounce In Polls"