[NYC Republican]

I sure hope he's only downplaying expectations for President Bush... I can't imagine that SKerry will get a 15 point bump.

[Numbers Guy]

I sure hope he's only downplaying expectations for President Bush

Bingo.

[SolidSupplySide]

Expectations management is political game I hate. I know both sides do it, but in this particular instance, it is Matthew Dowd who is compromising his credibility.

[dawn53]

The Bush Administration has always had a habit of downplaying, IMHO.

Reminds me of the press release that went out just before 2002 elections saying that the party of the White House usually loses seats during midterm elections, so don't get your hopes up.

[EggsAckley]

Sounds like balderdash to me.

[anniegetyourgun]

If he isn't up by double digits after his convention, Bush has it walking away. Remember, keep your eye on the finish line.....not the mile markers.

[deport]

By Ken Herman
Cox News Service

WASHINGTON — Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser.

In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce."

"We should expect the race to swing wildly to his favor by early August," Dowd, who remains confident Bush will win, said in the memo.

Current polls show a dead heat, but Dowd said Kerry could be up by a 55 percent to 40 percent margin in early August.

  Dowd also noted that Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe predicted Sunday that Kerry would be up by 8 to 10 points following the convention.

Dowd told campaign officials that history shows a challenger always gets a "dramatic, if often short-lived" bounce from the convention and the selection of a running mate.

Speculation about Kerry's running mate has centered on Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards as Kerry has kept mum about his preference. Kerry said last week the selection would be announced in an e-mail to supporters, but he would not say when it would go out. Others still in the mix as possible running mates include retired Gen. Wesley Clark, Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, though Biden downplayed his chances Monday.

"No one's done any vetting, any checking that I'm aware of," he told CNN outside his home in Wilmington, Del. "There's not a single thing that's occurred relative to the vice presidency and me that I'm aware of."

The Associated Press quoted two officials "close to the Kerry campaign" Monday who said that Edwards interrupted a trip to Walt Disney World last week to meet with Kerry in Washington.

But the officials cautioned about reading too much into that, saying Edwards is not the only potential vice presidential candidate who has met covertly with Kerry.

On Monday, Kerry picked up the endorsement of the National Education Association, the nation's largest union. The Massachusetts senator got 86.5 percent of the assembly's votes. Bush had declined to participate in the NEA's endorsement process.

Kerry will speak to the NEA convention on Tuesday.

"We believe John Kerry will work with educators to develop common-sense solutions to the challenges in America's classrooms, schools and communities," said Reg Weaver, NEA president.

The NEA endorsement means manpower and money in 15 battleground states targeted by the association.

Kerry on Monday hosted an Independence Day picnic near Pittsburgh that included supporters from Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, three November battleground states. The presumptive Democratic nominee will campaign in Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin, New York and Washington, D.C., this week.
      Bush, who will do a bus tour of Pennsylvania on Friday, had no public events on Monday. Instead, he went for a bike ride in Maryland. He was taken to a Secret Service facility in Beltsville, Maryland Md., for a bike ride.

---

[randog]

Convention bumps are nothing new, although I don't think they will be 15 points. IIRC, in the last election they were around 10 points. Either way, they quickly subside.

[beckett]

Bush has a serious chance of failing to win re-election. It is simply not discountable that his reasons for taking the country to war have proven to be largely unfounded.

Was he being honest in the buildup to war? It's hard to know, since he's so fatally inarticulate he hasn't been able to mount a clear defense of the rhetoric that was flying around before the invasion.

Just a few months ago I felt certain the nation's security depended upon proving to our enemies that Americans will stand behind a war leader, and I felt pretty confident that a majority of American voters would agree with me and re-elect Bush, if for no other reason than for that one alone. Lately I've started to go wobbly on that position.

If the Democrats can make a case that his war leadership has harmed the country unnecessarily and done little to enhance our security, they can win. The Bush team had better get off its butt and start explaining why Iraq was worth 800 lives, thousands wounded, billions of the nation's treasure, and the heavy hit our reputation and standing has taken around the world.

Or else Bush will be a one termer just like his Daddy.

[the Real fifi]

Since most of the conventions will not be publicized, I fail to see that the old patterns will prevail.

[CzarNicky]

My prediction is that Kerry will get a negligible bump coming out of the democrat convention then the press will declare that the era of convention bumps is over. When Bush gets a significant bump coming out of the Republican convention those stories will mysteriously disappear.

[misterrob]

Remember Dukakis/Bush I? MD had a huge lead coming out of his convention then lost it big time.

[Recovering_Democrat]

I won't be surprised if Kerry gets a huge double digit lead. I will be surprised if he sustains the same. Of course, he has sycophants in the press working overtime for him, as well as the socialists like George Soros, et al.

[Happy2BMe]

PING

[1Old Pro]

Kerry will get a 5 point bounce, much less than he "should" get. This will be the first indictation of a Bush landslide.

[veronica]

Rope-a-dope...

[Citizen of the Savage Nation]

A 15 pt bump does NOT equate to a 55-40 lead. Sheesh.

[The Wizard]

I don't believe that the bathroom boys are going to pull ahead......johnboy is not ready for president, and Kerry's choice is a poor one

[Edit35]

Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country.

In other words, TIME TO UNFURL THE BANKROLL and start the media blitz, TV and radio, demonstrating all the wimpy votes and statements by John-Boy and the Silk Pony (edwards) over the past two years.

Start with showing Opie's (yep-edwards) vote refusing to fund our soldiers in Iraq ---- and JohnBoy's multiple votes to cut CIA funding in the critical 1990s when 90-percent of the 9/11 attacks were being planned and financed.

[Reader of news]

Karl Rove's electoral strategy will work. After the GOP convention, President Bush will lead the polls and in November he will improve what he got in 2000.