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Those unbelievable poll numbers! Hugh Hewitt breaks apart recently released data on pres race ^ | June 23, 2004 | Hugh Hewitt

Posted on 06/23/2004 5:06:39 AM PDT by RonDog

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Wednesday, June 23, 2004

Those unbelievable poll numbers!

Posted: June 23, 2004
1:00 a.m. Eastern

By Hugh Hewitt

© 2004
Here's the Harris Poll from late last week, full of good news for the president, including a 10-point lead over Kerry in likely voters. Unlike the discredited Los Angeles Times poll showing Kerry with a 7-point lead, the reputable Harris survey got very little ink.

The most interesting data from the survey is the comparison between the president's approval rating – 50 percent – in June of his re-election year, and the approval ratings of other presidents in the June of their re-election years.

Clinton in '96, Reagan in '84, and Nixon in '72, were at 55 percent, 55 percent, and 56 percent respectively. The incumbents who lost, Bush 41, Carter and Ford were at 32 percent, 26 percent and 41 percent respectively. This president is much closer to the numbers of the re-elected (twice with landslides, once comfortably) than he is to the presidents who were turned out of office.

And with an economy surging, the approval number is going up. The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that the "surge in the U.S. economy is beginning to produce jobs in battleground states where the 2004 fight for the presidency might be decided," including "job growth last month in 10 of 12 states in which polls show President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democratic contender, locked in seesaw fights." In some places, the growth is relatively small – Ohio picked up 1,100 jobs in May – but the direction is what matters.

A few days after Harris published its results, the Washington Post-ABC poll begged to differ. They find the president is behind John Kerry by four points in their poll of registered voters. Of course, I'd rather be leading in likely voters than registered voters, but I don't think that explains the difference in the polls. One of them has to be broken.

I think it is the Washington Post poll. The reason? Two months ago the same poll showed respondents preferring Bush over Kerry when it came to fighting terrorism by an astounding but understandable margin of 21 percent.

This new poll shows the two tied in the public eyes when it comes to fighting terrorism.

And this after the pacification of the al Sadr revolt, the calming of Fallujah, the naming of the interim government, the U.N. resolution, the D-Day memorial, the G-8 summit, another 250,000 jobs (making nearly a million in three months) and of course, the Reagan funeral.

So we are supposed to believe the Washington Post poll? I don't. I think it fails the laugh test, and that the Harris survey – backed by three decades of asking the same questions from serious samples – deserves your attention.

Of course, what really matters are the state-by-state breakdowns, and I send you to:

for the best polling breakdowns anywhere on the Web. Be sure to consult as well ChrisisHardCore and BlogsforBush on a daily basis for crucial election trends.

With little over five months to go, however, the news is tremendous for the president and the oxygen is running out for Kerry (with Big Billy C. taking in great big gasps of it). Kerry can clutch at outlier polls if he wants, but history and events are marching away from him and toward the re-election of W.

Related offer:

Hugh Hewitt's new book is here! "In, But Not Of" takes a hard look at Christian ambition and influence and provides readers with valuable insights, wisdom, personal experiences and advice on how to rise in the world and achieve the kind of radical success that honors God. Autographed copies now available in ShopNetDaily!

Hugh Hewitt is an author, television commentator and syndicated talk-show host of the Salem Radio Network's Hugh Hewitt Show, heard in over 40 markets around the country.

TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: christianlife; hughhewitt; polls
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1 posted on 06/23/2004 5:06:39 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: JohnHuang2


2 posted on 06/23/2004 5:07:10 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: RonDog

I guess the people saw through all the lies the media has been putting out.

3 posted on 06/23/2004 5:08:43 AM PDT by Always Right
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To: RonDog

Ha! Ya beat me, but not by much ;-)

4 posted on 06/23/2004 5:12:21 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
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To: RonDog; doug from upland

So, do you agree with Hugh (on the show yesterday, talking with Doug) that Clinton is really a genuine born-again Christian... just a messed up guy?


5 posted on 06/23/2004 5:13:05 AM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: RonDog; xm177e2; mercy; Wait4Truth; hole_n_one; GretchenEE; Clinton's a rapist; buffyt; ...

Hugh Hewitt MEGA PING!!

Gotta run -- later, y'all.

6 posted on 06/23/2004 5:13:18 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
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To: JohnHuang2
Sorry. :(
I should have waited for YOUR thread.

7 posted on 06/23/2004 5:13:48 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: RonDog; JohnHuang2

It's big enough for the both of you!

8 posted on 06/23/2004 5:18:12 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: RonDog

This site is terrific for exposing media stupidity, venality and bias. Brent Bozell said this morning that he (MRC) is going to be putting ads in papers exposing the lies they are printing.

It should be added to the list in HHs article.

9 posted on 06/23/2004 5:24:52 AM PDT by maica
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To: doug from upland; ALOHA RONNIE; DLfromthedesert; PatiPie; flamefront; onyx; SMEDLEYBUTLER; Irma; ...
Thank you, Hugh...
...for letting me promote THIS event on your program yesterday:
pre-FReep info:
Kerry/Streisand fundraiser in L.A. [Disney Concert Hall] THURSDAY (6/24) 6pm

"OUR GOVERNOR can beat up YOUR CANDIDATE!" - FRN to protest "Stars for Kerry" concert in Los Angeles ^ | June 20, 2004 | RonDog (with inspiration from IPWGOP, doodlelady Prime Choice and others)
Posted on 06/20/2004 5:55:54 PM PDT by RonDog
Please JOIN US...
on THURSDAY (6/24) at 6 p.m.
outside the Walt Disney Concert Hall in Los Angeles
as we FReep the

John Kerry/Barbra Streisand
$10,000/couple FUNDRAISER!
-- snip --

Special thanks to Linda Eddy (aka FReeper IPWGOP) for THIS marvelous image:

CLICK HERE for the rest of that thread



If you listen to Hugh Hewitt,
or read his WorldNetDaily articles,
or his commentary at the Weekly Standard,
then this PING list is for YOU!

Please post your comments, and BUMP!

(If you want OFF - or ON - my "Hugh Hewitt PING list" - please let me know)

10 posted on 06/23/2004 5:27:06 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: RonDog

Sure hope the great Mr. H is right. Overall, the polls have been unsettling.

11 posted on 06/23/2004 5:33:18 AM PDT by tkathy (nihilism: absolute destructiveness toward the world at large and oneself)
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To: RonDog

When I see polls like the ABC/WP one that had more people say Kerry would do a better job in the WOT, I have to ask myself two questions:

1. Is this a legitimate poll?

2. If it is, on WHAT could anyone base that opinion?

12 posted on 06/23/2004 5:41:33 AM PDT by PogySailor (Proud member of the RAM)
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To: tkathy
Thank God for TALK RADIO, and for the Internet!

See also:

L.A. Times poll skewed: Kerry, Bush survey sample was 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans
      Posted by JohnHuang2
On News/Activism 06/16/2004 2:08:25 AM PDT with 21 comments ^ | June 15, 2004
L.A. Times poll draws GOP fire
      Posted by ambrose
On News/Activism 06/15/2004 10:08:43 PM PDT with 13 comments

Washington Times ^ | 6.16.04
LA Times Caught Fixing Poll(Sampled 38% Dem, 25% Repubs)
      Posted by TommyDale
On News/Activism 06/15/2004 2:41:30 PM PDT with 32 comments

Roll Call via Drudge Report ^ | June 15, 2004 | Matt Drudge
      Posted by KMC1
On News/Activism 06/15/2004 8:13:10 AM PDT with 43 comments

Crosswalk/Drudge Report/Roll Call ^ | 6.15.2004 | McCullough/Drudge/Roll Call Editors
TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans
      Posted by Jimmyclyde
On News/Activism 06/15/2004 7:37:11 AM PDT with 80 comments ^
Americans Say Iraq War Not Worth It -LA Times Poll
      Posted by F14 Pilot
On News/Activism 06/12/2004 3:34:58 AM PDT with 67 comments

Yahoo News ^ | 12th june 04 | Reuters
Inside the LAtimes Poll(38 % Democratic, 25% Republican, 24% Independent)
      Posted by Pikamax
On News/Activism 06/11/2004 4:48:47 PM PDT with 31 comments

Slate ^ | 06/11/04 | Mickey Kaus
MAKING SENSE OF THE TIMES: (Los Angeles Times Poll showing Kerry in the lead draws skepticism)
      Posted by JohnHuang2
On News/Activism 06/11/2004 1:42:35 AM PDT with 19 comments

Real Clear Politics ^ | June 10, 2004 | T. Bevan
Bush Camp: LA Times Poll Loaded with Dems
      Posted by John Lenin
On News/Activism 06/10/2004 8:12:59 PM PDT with 39 comments ^ | 6/10/2004
LA Times Skews its Poll for Kerry
      Posted by Cableguy
On News/Activism 06/10/2004 4:56:15 PM PDT with 19 comments

The Note/ABC News ^ | June 10, 2004
Explaining the LA Times Poll
      Posted by pookie18
On News/Activism 06/10/2004 3:40:55 PM PDT with 41 comments

Rush ^ | 6/10/04 | Rush Limbaugh

13 posted on 06/23/2004 5:43:12 AM PDT by RonDog
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To: RonDog


14 posted on 06/23/2004 5:48:04 AM PDT by NYC Republican (How can Americans SERIOUSLY consider voting for an ADMITTED WAR CRIMINAL Scum like SKerry???)
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To: RonDog; DrDeb; Molly Pitcher; DollyCali; dutchess; Common Tator; conspiratoristo; Faith; ...
Just want to point out the color of OHIO............

Let's keep up the good work, guys! With the job picture brightening and continued hard work at the grassroots level, we can see a sure victory for Bush in Ohio in November!

btw, last I heard, Washington was a statistical tie.

15 posted on 06/23/2004 6:17:41 AM PDT by ohioWfan (BUSH 2004 - Leadership, Integrity, Morality)
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To: ohioWfan

Don't count out Wisconsin just yet. Polls show a close race and my impression is that in terms of grassroots organization Bush has Kerry beat badly. I'm seeing many more Bush/Cheney Bumper Stickers than Kerry (granted I don't live in Milwaukee or Madision which are much more Democratic) but I have a feeling Wisconsin may go with Bush this time.

16 posted on 06/23/2004 6:39:30 AM PDT by Dr Snide (vis pacem, para bellum - Prepare for war if you want peace)
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To: RonDog

HUGH HEWITT BUMP -- Hugh is a BRILLIANT political analyst with a track record that dates back to the Nixon administration!

17 posted on 06/23/2004 6:47:58 AM PDT by DrDeb
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To: Always Right
I guess the people saw through all the lies the media has been putting out.

You can't hide the truth forever. The media had better get on the right side of this pretty quick or they're going to lose the small minority of people who read and watch them.

18 posted on 06/23/2004 7:01:08 AM PDT by McGavin999 (If Kerry can't deal with the "Republican Attack Machine" how is he going to deal with Al Qaeda)
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To: Dr Snide
I have a feeling you're right about Wisconsin, too.

And apparently so does the President. He's done some quality campaigning there already. The coverage in the Milwaukee paper (Journal-Sentinel??) when he spoke at Concordia was exceptionally positive.

This was on the front page.......

And THIS was on the inside, accompanied by a very nice article.

One heart, one soul at a time..............even in Milwaukee.

(Though I'm not too sure about Madison. Do they have hearts and souls there? ;o)

19 posted on 06/23/2004 7:07:31 AM PDT by ohioWfan (BUSH 2004 - Leadership, Integrity, Morality)
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To: McGavin999
You can't hide the truth forever.

It is kind of hard when each source spins the lie a little differently. If you put together just a couple of media stories, it was obvious both were only telling a partial story to make a truth appear as a lie.

20 posted on 06/23/2004 7:09:31 AM PDT by Always Right
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