Posted on 06/15/2004 7:37:11 AM PDT by Jimmyclyde
TWISTED: LA Times Poll Had Sample With 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans Tue Jun 15 2004 10:13:47 ET
Sen. John Kerry "has taken big lead," according "to an L.A. Times poll."
But the Times poll that showed Kerry "beating Bush by 7 points" has created a controversy over whether the poll's sample accurately reflects the population as whole, ROLL CALL reports on Tuesday.
"Not counting independents, the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin," ROLL CALL claims.
Developing...
All of us can see it, sure. But the shock will come when they ADMIT that this was a bogus and weighted poll.
Oh, I forgot. That was another LA Times "accurate" poll.
I did not see the details of this LA Times poll previously. Thanks for posting this explanation
The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,230 registered voters in the national sample, as well as 566 registered voters in Missouri, 722 in Ohio and 694 in Wisconsin from Saturday through Tuesday. The margin of sampling error for the national sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points; for the state polling it is plus or minus 4 percentage points....it is also merely a "registered voters" poll, as opposed to a "likely voters" poll. The article by Richard Brownstein claims that the poll was taken Saturday through Tuesday, but if the most polling was done on the weekend, the numbers will favor Democrats. (Republicans are out having a life on the weekend!)
*L* .. Not good news for Kerry is it???
Yea it's shocking, shocking I'll tell you!
hehehehe
caught again
According to ABC's THE NOTE, the RNC actaully sent out disclaimers on this poll to all the news outlets but each one of them, including Fox reported the results as golden.
POLLS POLARIZED POLLING
Remarkably, with the election 6 months away, poll after poll shows that the amount of undecided voters is low- anywhere from 2% to 8%. This shows how polarized the country is. So which poll do we turn to? The common wisdom is that we turn to Zogby because he got it right in 1996 and in 2000.
The problem is that Zogby got lucky in 2000 because he predicted (actually guessed) that more democrats would show up to the polls that republicans. Thanks to a last minute voter push by the Gore Camp in states that ironically he was predicted to take anyway, Gore took the popular vote. Florida turned out closer because the panhandle vote was light after the networks “predicted” Gore was going to win the state before the polls closed.
Luckily for Zogby, these two unpredicted factors propelled him to pollster god. Dick Morris and others love to tout how Zogby got it right in 2000, and we should only trust him. Since Zogby has the current presidential race at a tie, Morris states this is a problem for Bush. But what about the 2002 election?
Not to be outdone, Rove and the RNC revamped the grass root get out the vote for 2002. This was disastrous for (the democrats and) Zogby who was showing on November 4th, 2002, tight senate races. Dick Morris even cited Zogby in his column, (again as the only reliable source because, after all, he got the 2000 election right) stating, “… that the democrats had turned the tide”. This time Zogby’s prediction (actually, it’s a guess) that more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans was wrong. He blew it; Morris got it wrong in 2002.
So obviously Dick Morris dethroned Zogby as the pollster god and would not rely on his polling data that favors more democratic voters than republicans for the current presidential race? (That’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer.)
The lesson learned is that with the country narrowly divided with a few undecided, it is going to come down to who can get out the vote. The party can increase turnout to the slightest degree can spell victory. What pollsters should be telling us is who is more motivated to vote this November.
I re-crunched the numbers using the poll's internal percentages, but with a more accurate representation of Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
I got 49.3% for Bush, 45.3% for Kerry.
Rush is on the poll rigging right now
Rush just spent a whole segment blasting this...
YES! FReepers Rule!
the Times' results were calculated on a sample made up of 38 percent Democrats and 25 percent Republicans -- a huge and unheard-of margin
Nonsense. That's a 13% difference.
The April 2nd Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll had 53% Democrats and 39% Republicans - a 14% difference. And gave Kerry the edge by 12 points.
It's not unheard of - it's run-of-the-mill among leftist media outlets determined to deliver the election to Kerry.
I missed it due to my Son deciding that moment to raise hell.
Got it recorded, though!
No Dittocam, though!
Bummer!
Yep, Brit Hume used that piece of LAT logic on his Grapevine segment late last week - he named the spokesperson too - think it was a woman.
So, how do you feel about Poll Threads?
Rush figured it out the day the poll was released and explained it on the air.
I have never, ever been polled for anything, so now I know why.
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