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Bush's Good Week (Bush likely winner in Nov. - James J. Zogby)
Al-Jazeerah ^ | June 8, 2004 | James J. Zogby

Posted on 06/08/2004 9:58:02 AM PDT by veronica

After enduring a number of setbacks during a difficult spring, President Bush appears to be in the midst of a rebound. The economic news is good, the news from Iraq shows some improvement, and the President's schedule has provided him several opportunities to focus public attention on his campaign theme of "providing strong leadership for America".

As a result, the President's poll numbers have risen slightly and one prominent pundit, who has developed a scientific model that has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, now says that Bush appears to be a likely winner in November.

Just one month ago, Bush was in the midst of a string of setbacks. A series of books had been published revealing embarrassing information about his presidency. The 9/11 commission provided a number of damaging challenges to the Administration. And the Abu Ghraib scandal, coupled with an insurgent driven unraveling of the military situation in Iraq-all combined to deliver serious blows to Bush's leadership image.

But the news has improved. The U.S. economy continues to grow. The Administration was boosted by news last week that the U.S. added almost one million news jobs in the past four months.

News from Iraq has also been somewhat more comforting. More flexible American tactics have provided at least short term solutions to the Fallujah insurrection and the possibility of a settlement to the Sadr rebellion.

Although the plan for the selection of Iraq's interim government didn't unfold as anticipated, the U.S.'s new flexibility put the Administration in the position of being able to embrace the outcome and call it a victory. Evidence of this was on display last week as a confident President Bush appeared in the White House Rose Garden delivering an upbeat message of Iraq now on a track for democracy. That address, coupled with Bush's appearance at the official commemoration of Washington's new World War II memorial, other Memorial Day activities, and his stirring commencement address to an obviously supportive Air Force Academy graduating class, provided the President with a number of very positive media opportunities that he used with great effectiveness.

Now in the midst of a European tour, with visits to the Vatican, Rome, Paris, and culminating at a Normandy 60th D-Day anniversary commemoration, the White House is assured of several more days of positive news stories dominating the U.S. media.

All of this has had an obvious effect on the presidential race. Bush's events have drowned out challenger John Kerry's weeklong efforts to challenge the Bush Administration's national security policy. A series of Kerry press events and policy speeches focusing on a range of initiatives have all been reduced to secondary stories in the face of the White House's blitz. With this has come an uptick in public opinion polls. A few weeks ago, Bush was trailing behind Kerry in most major polls. He now holds a slight lead in many. The country is too politically divided for any major swing to occur, but the change in the White House's fortunes has nevertheless produced measurable results.

Late last week I hosted American University professor Allan Lichtman on my Abu Dhabi TV "Viewpoint" program. Lichtman is the analyst who has developed a scientific model for predicting the outcome of presidential elections. While Lichtman has been using his model to correctly call the results of every race since 1984, he has based his approach on an analysis of the past 35 presidential contests going back to 1860. Instead of utilizing polling data, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society. He has identified 13 such indicators and calls them his "13 Keys". According to Lichtman for the incumbent to win reelection, he needs to hold at least eight of these "13 Keys". The "13 Keys" are:

The Incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the midterm election;

There is no real contest for the incumbent nomination;

The incumbent-party is the current president;

There is no real third-party;

The economy is not in recession;

Per capita economic growth is improving;

The Administration effected major policy changes;

There is no major social unrest;

The incumbent is untainted by major scandal; There have been no major military or foreign policy failures;

There was a major military or foreign policy success;

The incumbent is charismatic or a national hero; and

The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.

According to Lichtman's assessment, Bush currently can claim the eight keys necessary to win. (Bush has "Keys" 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 11 and 13.) The four "Keys" Bush loses are 6, 7, 10 and 12. "Key" nine is still unclear.

Since most of the "Keys" are macro, or long-term indicators, Lichtman sees little change possible with most of them. The two, however, that could change are numbers 9 and 11. If, for example, any of the currently outstanding investigations (9/11, Abu Ghraib, pre-Iraq war intelligence and the leak of a CIA agent's identity) expand and lead directly to the White House, then Bush will lose "Key" 9. And if Iraq takes a turn for the worse and Afghanistan, the one domestically perceived foreign policy success, unravels dramatically enough to change public perception, than Bush would lose "Key" 11 and could, therefore, according to Lichtman, be in trouble.

The situation is still somewhat fluid. But, as it stands today, if Bush's good fortune holds, his edge in the polls may remain and he could continue to hold enough "Keys" to be reelected in November.

Dr. James J. Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush43; gwb2004; polls; zogby
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1 posted on 06/08/2004 9:58:06 AM PDT by veronica
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To: veronica
WAIT A MINUTE HERE!!!! Didn't the Zog just say a week or so ago, Flip Kerry in a LANDSLIDE??? What am I missing here?
2 posted on 06/08/2004 10:00:54 AM PDT by RetiredArmy ( I am a Vietnam Vet, thus I am a war criminal according to Flip Kerry.)
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To: veronica

Let's just hope Bush wins!


3 posted on 06/08/2004 10:01:04 AM PDT by cvq3842
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To: cvq3842

Vegas bookies are calling it a Bush win. Hanoi John will sputter and die like Karter and Mondale. One more stupid libtard for the SH*THEAP!


4 posted on 06/08/2004 10:02:21 AM PDT by gunnygail
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To: RetiredArmy

Zogby will be able to claim he was right no matter what the outcome is.


5 posted on 06/08/2004 10:03:41 AM PDT by southernnorthcarolina
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To: veronica
The challenger is not charismatic and not a national hero.

Yeah! Bush wins!

6 posted on 06/08/2004 10:04:21 AM PDT by BushisTheMan
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To: southernnorthcarolina

"I actually called the election for Kerry, before I called it for Bush."


7 posted on 06/08/2004 10:05:06 AM PDT by Fabozz
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To: veronica
James J. Zogby

Isn't THE Zogby's first name JOHN???

8 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:25 AM PDT by True Capitalist
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To: veronica

You put Keys 9 and 10 on the same line - that's gonna confuse a lot of people!

Also, you don't seem to realize that James Zogby is not the same person as the well-known pollster: John Zogby..


9 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:32 AM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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To: veronica

bttt


10 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:37 AM PDT by Pikamax
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To: veronica
Uh oh. The media had better pull out some more Abu Graib pictures or those pesky pubbies will be back in office.

No wonder Dan Blather is in a funk about Reagan Week.

11 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:42 AM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: RetiredArmy

Wasn't it his brother, the pollster, who said it was Flipper's election to win or lose?


12 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:44 AM PDT by labard1
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To: veronica

How about some Zogby's speacial sauce for those waffles.

Zog is taking his cues from Kerry, and learning how to flip'n flop just like a pro.


13 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:49 AM PDT by jwfiv (Ronaldus Magnus este un hombre grande, este en cielo ahora, con Dios.)
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To: RetiredArmy

John Zogby is the pollster. This is his brother, James Zogby.


14 posted on 06/08/2004 10:06:50 AM PDT by veronica (Viva la Reagan revolution...)
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To: RetiredArmy

James Zogby and John Zogby (the pollster) are two different Zogbys..


15 posted on 06/08/2004 10:07:05 AM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

Down here, we call this trying to get out in front of the parade.

I don't trust him.


16 posted on 06/08/2004 10:08:17 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: veronica

bump


17 posted on 06/08/2004 10:08:59 AM PDT by Kate of Spice Island (Sharayah the kilt wearer...au naturale....)
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To: southernnorthcarolina

James Zogby and John Zogby (the pollster) are two different Zogbys..


18 posted on 06/08/2004 10:09:21 AM PDT by AntiGuv (When the countdown hits zero - something's gonna happen..)
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To: RetiredArmy
It seems there are two Zogs, one is James and the other John. They may be brothers.

One, John, does polling and the other, James (?), I see occasionally on Cable News discussing the Middle East and US Politics. James is no friend of Israel! They are of Arab extraction.
19 posted on 06/08/2004 10:09:27 AM PDT by RAY (They that do right are all heroes!)
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To: RetiredArmy

Yep. Just a few scant weeks ago Zogbys headline was "Election Kerry's to Lose"


20 posted on 06/08/2004 10:09:32 AM PDT by Phantom Lord (Distributor of Pain, Your Loss Becomes My Gain)
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