Posted on 05/29/2004 4:48:59 PM PDT by Graybeard58
President Bush leads John Kerry by 6 percentage points in the battle for Ohio, a state that could decide who wins the White House, according to a statewide Plain Dealer poll.
Ohio voters surveyed say they favor Bush over Kerry, 47 percent to 41 percent. Consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws 3 percent, though he has yet to qualify for the Ohio ballot. Nine percent say they are undecided.
Though Bush is given low marks for his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq, those who say they favor him cite his moral character and his stewardship over the war on terrorism and homeland security as reasons.
"I'm very concerned about what a change of administration would mean, primarily about security," says Bob Saul, a retired General Electric marketing manager from Cincinnati who participated in the poll.
Though the economy remains a major concern, Saul says he is not willing to risk returning "to an era of appeasement and therefore wind up being more vulnerable to future attacks."
Much of Kerry's support (62 percent) is from voters who say they favor him not so much for who he is but for who he is not - George Bush - a sign that Kerry has not yet sold himself or his plans to the state's voters.
"I'm more anti-Bush, and I'm not really that strong on Kerry," says Burel Eding of Toledo, who participated in the poll. "I feel we need a change. I supported Bush on the invasion in Afghanistan, but I don't think he's doing enough on the economy."
The poll, conducted May 20-25 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, is based on interviews with 1,500 registered voters who plan to vote in November. The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.6 percentage points, is the largest presidential poll taken in Ohio this year.
The results run counter to the findings of earlier polls, conducted in Ohio by other organizations, that have showed the race a dead heat or with Kerry slightly ahead.
The Plain Dealer results "remind us that there are 50 different state elections, and it is very important to pay attention to the polls in the states, particularly the ones done with a large sample of people who intend to vote," says Karlyn Bowman, who studies opinion polls at the American Enterprise Institute, a think tank in Washington, D.C. "There are clearly differences in the electorate in states about the race overall."
The poll shows Bush is favored even though nearly one out of two people surveyed say they disapprove of his handling of the economy, which remains the No. 1 issue of concern among Ohio voters. And Bush tops Kerry even though less than half - 45 percent - approve of his handling of the war in Iraq. Among those interviewed who are planning to vote for Bush, 53 percent cite his character and integrity as their top reason for supporting the president. Nearly 30 percent say they plan to vote for him first and foremost because they like the leadership he has shown in the war on terror.
"Bush's strength is the 'strength' issue," says Bowman. "People do believe nationally that the Bush administration has made this nation safer."
Kevin Madden, a Bush campaign spokesman, declined to comment on any of the poll's specific findings. He says he believes "Ohioans look to their president for leadership and clarity on the issues that are important to them" and "that is a message that we look forward to delivering throughout this campaign in Ohio."
Though Bush shows strength in this poll, the results "don't look good for a sitting president," says John Green, director of the Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. Bush's support on foreign affairs could change, Green says, especially if the situation in Iraq worsens and it "gets caught up in an issue that he can't control."
For Kerry, the poll shows that voters have yet to connect with Kerry or his domestic and foreign affairs policies, reflected by the 62 percent of Kerry's support comes from people who dislike Bush. Twenty-one percent of those surveyed who plan to vote for Kerry cite his policies as the most important issue; 16 percent say his character and integrity is the top issue.
Bowman says Kerry needs to convert some of the anti-Bush vote into Kerry backers to improve his chances. To do that, she says, Kerry needs to raise more doubt about Bush's handling of the economy and make the message stick."That right now, in national polls and well in Ohio, is the strength of the Democrats because voters think Kerry would better handle the economy," she says.
Kerry doesn't have to convince Shirley Bruce of Munroe Falls.
"I'm with Kerry 100 percent," says Bruce, a retiree who participated in the poll. "I don't like that everything is leaving the state."
Bruce cites Kerry's emphasis on the economy as her top reason for supporting him. But she says she would like to learn more about him.
Kerry's campaign says it knows it must educate voters about the senator and his positions.
"Recent polling in Ohio has fluctuated, and it is still very early to rely on anyone particular poll," says Jennifer Palmieri, Kerry's Ohio spokeswoman. "These numbers reflect a overall dissatisfaction with Bush and an opportunity for John Kerry. We have to work hard to make sure people know who John Kerry is."
The Kerry campaign is airing biographical TV commercials in the state about his family and military background. And Kerry has benefited from special interest groups that have run ads in Ohio critical of Bush's policies. He and his wife, Theresa Heinz Kerry, have visited the state a half-dozen times.
Bush has visited Ohio 17 times as president and has spent millions here to air campaign commercials.
Ohio's voters were narrowly split in the 2000 election, with Bush defeating Al Gore by less than 4 percent. As a result, with 20 electoral votes up for grabs, the state is considered a top prize that could swing the election.
But campaigning in Ohio is difficult because it includes five distinct regions, from flat and mountainous rural regions with a conservative Republican bent to liberal urban areas that favor Democrats.
Voters in Ohio's socially conservative Southwest, which includes the Republican stronghold of Cincinnati, favor Bush by the widest margin - 20 percentage points - over Kerry, 54 percent to 34 percent.
By contrast, voters in the Northeast favor Kerry the most - by 9 percentage points - at 47 percent to 38 percent. The Northeast contains the Democratic cities Cleveland and Youngstown, which have suffered more job losses than most other parts of the state.
Ohio's Southeast region, which includes Appalachia, may be the most competitive at this point - with room for both candidates to make their mark. "The Southeast has born the brunt of economic troubles in Ohio and we will have Kerry spend a great deal of time there," Palmieri says. But converting voters might be difficult, the poll suggests.
Asked if it is reasonably possible that they might change their presidential vote before the November election, 73 percent of the would-be voters say no.
Still, that does leave a large number of undecided voters. Edith Coe of Granville, Ohio, is a voter on the fence.
"I was kind of interested in Kerry but with all the mudslinger ads neither one of them seems that good now," says Coe, a retired school district employee. "It's not that I think Bush is doing a horrible job, but when you hear about how Kerry fluctuates that scares you, too."
The electoral trends will depend on how well urban planning goes. If the city experiences white flight, its Democrat core will slowly expand outward. But it's not like Dilworth and South Park are suddenly going to go Democrat, and there's still plenty of impetus to live close to "uptown". People are generally fleeing the city for cheaper houses because of the rich folks, rather than running away from the poor. The west/southwest is becoming ghetto, I'll give you that, more apartments than houses, but perhaps the reverse in the north. Will the booming Hispanic population join the Plantation, or will they follow the JorgeBush/DanRamirez lead to Republicanism? If you expand to Mecklenburg, there's still plenty of fast-growing upscale areas that are outgrowing Charlotte's Democrat areas.
2002 was a good year here for Republicans. We'll see how things go this year.
OK, I'm back. I have the hard numbers for the Charlotte metro area (election returns & registration) but I'll need to work up the percentages real quick. Before I do that, a couple quick comments.
First, Statesville (Iredell County) is definitely not part of the Charlotte metro. Hickory/Statesville are their own little metro area, if one wants to call it that..
I would personally question whether Salisbury (Rowan Co) is really in the Charlotte metro area, but it is generally assigned to it. It's right between Charlotte & Winston-Salem, but hey, whatever!
As for the York County, that's in South Carolina so it's not included in my figures.
The figures I have are for Mecklenburg, Gaston, Cabarrus, Lincoln, Rowan, and Union Counties between 1992-2004. That's the Greater Charlotte Metropolitan Area. Even without working up the percentages I can tell you that we'll find..
There will be an accelerating GOP drift almost entirely attributable to Union County, with a lesser degree Rowan County. Leaving out Union County, the City of Charlotte and the suburbs more or less cancel one another out.
Let me go get the 1980 presidential numbers too since that came up and then I'll post some figures.
Yes, I most certainly do. It captures a trend perhaps, but the absolute numbers are BS.
A few days ago, some (I'm not you) were a little depressed Now it looks as thought things are looking GOOD. IF Dub takes Ohio, PA, and keeps it close in Mich., this election will be closer to 1988. Of course CA. went for GHWB in '88.
If you have 1988, I would like to see those figures. Thanks.
Well, thank goodness! I was worried!
BTW, I do Zogby interactive polls; I lie on every page.
April 1994
Democratic: 51.20%
Republican: 38.73%
April 1996
Democratic: 47.90%
Republican: 39.62%
April 1998
Democratic: 45.06%
Republican: 39.17%
April 2000
Democratic: 43.22%
Republican: 38.89%
May 2002
Democratic:41.91%
Republican: 38.84%
May 2004
Democratic: 40.70%
Republican: 38.90%
From April 1994 to May 2004 the percentage of registered Democrats has decreased 10.5%; the percentage of registered Republicans has increased 0.17%
My sense of humor is very, very dry. You lie to Zogby? How naughty of you.
Yes, I can include 1988 presidential voting figures. I'll post 1980, 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 in a little bit.
I think Zogby is splashing the Heinz 57 around
We must really work for President Bush in Ohio. The Cleveland Plain Dealer is on a mission to remove the president from office. One of the PD's columnists, the bizarre Connie Schultz, is engaged to Sherrod Brown, one of the most Marxist-leaning members of the U.S. Congress.
The National economy doesn't mean a thing. It's the LOCAL economy that matters.
Really? So nobody cares about policies that have America leading the western industrialized nations in the economic recovery, all they really care about is their own little local economy.
So even if their state was doing great, if their little town lost jobs or they are not personally doing well, they will consider Bush a failure EVEN THOUGH the rest of the nation is doing great.
How small minded and self centered can you get?
That's a good analysis on your part in comment #16.
1980 President
J Carter: 125,319 44.46%
Reagan: 145,253 51.54%
1984 President
Mondale: 109,496 32.85%
Reagan: 223,162 66.95%
1988 President
Dukakis: 124,566 36.53%
Bush 41: 215,393 63.17%
1992 President
Clinton: 162,946 38.07%
Bush 41: 204,348 47.74%
1996 President
Clinton: 170,041 42.09%
BobDole: 206,898 51.21%
2000 President
AlGore: 200,669 41.17%
Bush 43: 282,974 58.05%
J Carter: 125,319 44.46%
Mondale: 109,496 32.85%
Dukakis: 124,566 36.53%
Clinton: 162,946 38.07%
Clinton: 170,041 42.09%
AlGore: 200,669 41.17%
Reagan: 145,253 51.54%
Reagan: 223,162 66.95%
Bush 41: 215,393 63.17%
Bush 41: 204,348 47.74%
BobDole: 206,898 51.21%
Bush 43: 282,974 58.05%
Might I add that I think your point would've been better made using the Triangle (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) than using Charlotte Metro.
Thanks so much. I look at 1988 versus 2000, which I think are comparable elections. Bush 2 carried NC by a couple of points less than Bush 1 in 1988. The drop in the Charlotte metro area is more. So, I say, slight secular Dem trend. That is true through most of the south in the larger metro areas. It is more than made it by the big GOP swing in the rural counties.
Well everybody knows that area is going "Commie Lib." That assertion would not have been very interesting. :)
Another way, and probably a better way, to look at it, is that Bush 2 lagged Bush 1 by 4 percentage points, and in metro Charlotte lagged by 5 points. God, I was close to being wrong! But the good news is that I was not. :)
To put it bluntly, yeah. Especially in areas of "company towns" dependant on one major industry. Flint's been ailing for years. Highland Park is a ghost town. That's been happening since the 70's, but are two of the most well known.
they will consider Bush a failure EVEN THOUGH the rest of the nation is doing great.
Many will(not all). Most I think blame them all(A reason why outsiders - like governors, become presidents. They are change from Washington). This more commonly happens on the gubenatorial level but can happen nationwide too(Engler was loved in 1994, but not as much in 02). It's a big reason why I make sure Kerry's NAFTA vote is mentioned over and over again in Michigan.
Most in the state knows someone who is laid off. Those that don't know someone who knows someone. This effect them a lot more than reading a bunch of numbers in the paper or seeing them announced on TV. Add the outsourcing reports(Greenville especially), and that's where most of the blame goes. This trickle downs to rest of the region as well.
Luckily for Bush, Kerry is part of the establishment.
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