What amazing photos.......and what devestation. Thanks for posting the link.
Posted on 05/29/2004 11:22:56 AM PDT by dusty99999
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004
VALID 291653Z - 300100Z
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN IOWA CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA OKLAHOMA
THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE AREA.
AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
Thanks for the link. Those photos were very impressive.
That would be the tri-state tornado..over MO/IL/IN
Oh my. This mommy's going to be nervous tonight. My 22-year-old son is at school in NW Kentucky. They had a tornado there the other night. He was in a CAR when it happened. They got pummelled with debris and it turned the car sideways. Tore the window and its casement out of their dorm room and flooded the room. And this was a "baby" tornado--it was only 25-25 feet across. Prayers for Mike and everybody in the path of these storms!!!
A_R
Bring it on!
I hope I have some awesome action today.
My brother saw that tornado he was storm chasing...today he is in kansas(we are from IL)
I live in Peoria...that outbreak took everyone by surprise there wasnt even a slight risk out that day
...outbreak of severe thunderstorms including a few strong...long-track tornadoes over parts of the southern and central plains today through tonight.
The nws storm prediction center in norman ok is forecasting the development of a few strong...long-track tornadoes over parts of the southern and central plains later today through tonight.
The areas most likely to experience this activity include Western iowa central and eastern kansas northwest missouri central and eastern nebraska Oklahoma.There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms over much of the remainder of the plains from the canadian border of eastern nd and mn swd thru much of central tx.
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms including the possibility of strong tornadoes...very large hail and damaging winds is expected this afternoon and early tonight over a large part of the central and southern plains as a vigorous storm system deepens over the area.
An intensifying surface low in the central high plains will move slowly ne through early sunday...producing strong southerly winds that will draw increasingly moist and unstable air north across the plains. A vigorous jet stream disturbance now moving east across the rockies will strengthen winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere later today and tonight.
With very strong surface heating this afternoon...various surface features will become the focus for rapid severe thunderstorm development over parts of nebraska...iowa...eastern south dakota and northern kansas. Other storms may form a little later this afternoon and evening southward through oklahoma into parts of western and northern texas.
The combination of the very unstable air and increasingly favorable wind profiles will result in supercell thunderstorms. Conditions will support storms that quickly develop the potential for both tornadoes and very large hail. A strong possibly for long track tornadoes will exist in the high risk area.
The severe threat will likely continue well after dark and spread east across remaining portions of iowa...missouri and oklahoma. In addition...more isolated but still potentially tornadic supercells are possible in regions adjacent to the high risk area from southwest minnesota south to the big bend region of texas.
This is potentially a very dangerous situation. Those in the threatened area are urged to review severe weather safety rules and to listen to radio...television...and noaa weather radio for possible watches...warnings...and statements later today.
I believe that was the one.
...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms surrounding the high risk area that includes parts of neb/sd/mn/ia/mo/ar and ok...
...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over remaining parts of the plns and mid/upr ms vly...
...major severe weather outbreak expected across a large part of the plains and ms vly today through early sunday...
...synopsis... Broad progressive trough now over grt basin will continue e through sunday as downstream ridge moves from the plns to the oh/tn vlys. Heights falls...increasing vertical shear and low level moisture advection associated with trough will create favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environment for long-lived supercells over a large portion of the cntrl u.s.
Shortwave impulse now over the srn hi plns should continue newd through the period...reaching the lwr mo vly this evening...and the lwr ms vly/wrn grt lks by 12z sunday. Stronger upstream disturbance... Expected to evolve from complex of features attm over the srn grt basin...should track e/ne and reach the tx/ok panhandle region early sunday.
A surface low should consolidate over wrn ks later today as main area of height falls edges e into the plns. The low should track ne into srn mn by 12z sunday as associated warm front lifts n into the mid/upr ms vly and trailing dry line moves e across the cntrl/ srn plns.
...nrn ks/nw mo cntrl and ern neb into ern sd/mn/ia... Surface heating and approach of srn plns upper impulse will result in strong destabilization across the lwr mo/upr ms vly region later today...with mlcapes likely to range from around 1500 in se sd/sw mn to aoa 3500 j/kg in srn and ern neb/nrn ks. Band of 40 kt sswly mid level flow...increasing boundary layer moisture advection /surface dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s/ and enhanced low level speed/directional shear invof warm front suggest good chance for long-lived supercells and perhaps a few strong tornadoes...in addition to very large hail/high wind. This activity should consolidate into a severe mcs early tonight. Embedded supercells/bows will likely pose a continued threat for high wind/hail and possible tornadoes through early sunday as the convective system moves e ahead of deepening surface low into parts of ia/mn wi and nw il.
...cntrl/srn ks into ok/nw tx... Mid level winds should veer to a more wswly direction over the srn half of the plns today in wake of impulse now ejecting newd across wrn ks/ok. An area of weak subsidence and mid level warming /per 700 analysis/ will likely follow passage of the disturbance. But extrapolation of features in water vapor imagery suggests that leading edge of large scale ascent associated with upstream shortwave complex should reach the ok/tx panhandle region by late in the day. Surface heating...and influx of very moist boundary layer air with average dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will contribute to significant potential instability across a large part of ks/ok and nw tx.
Strengthening cap may temporarily delay onset of convective development. But combination of increasing large scale ascent late today into tonight...increasing low level moisture inflow and breadth of warm sector will create a strong conditional threat for intense/long-lived supercells with very large hail/ damaging winds and tornadoes as capped is breached along dry line. Some of this activity could persist through early sunday as upper flow further strengthens with continued ewd motion of large scale trough. This would extend a threat for isolated severe storms ewd into ern ok...nw ar and cntrl and srn mo.
And on the flipside, I bet those midwestern states would freak if there was a Hollywood forecast for their areas. I just know they would.
What amazing photos.......and what devestation. Thanks for posting the link.
Areas affected...much of ia...sern sd...nern neb...swrn mn
Concerning...severe thunderstorm potential valid 291742z - 291915z
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along outflow boundary and warm front. A ww could be required next hour or so. Latest visible imagery shows moderate to strong insolation vicinity of old outflow boundary draped nw-se over central ia with boundary layer cu increasing. Dewpoints continue to increase into the mid to upper 60s f through advection which is providing an unstable and high rh boundary layer. Cap is expected to break as temperatures approach 80 f as indicated by ruc forecast soundings. Ample low level helicity along outflow boundary could allow for the development of tornadoes.
--- Mesoscale discussion 0972 nws storm prediction center norman ok 0102 pm cdt sat may 29 2004
Areas affected...parts of n cntrl/cntrl ks...s cntrl/se neb Concerning...severe thunderstorm potential valid 291802z - 292000z
Initiation of intense convection appears possible within next 2 to 3 hours. Storms will rapidly become severe...with transition to long-lived supercells with potential for strong tornadoes thereafter.
Water vapor imagery indicates persistent band of low/mid-level moistening/large-scale ascent now shifting northeastward across the texas/oklahoma panhandle region. This appears to be in response to warm advection in wake of short wave trough already lifting out of the central plains...and ahead of short wave/jet streak digging across the great basin. Stronger forcing will continue into the central plains early this afternoon...and by the 20-21z time frame appears likely to curve along an axis from the vicinity of hill city through areas near/north and east of salina.
Objective analysis indicates boundary layer is already becoming very unstable across central/northern kansas...east of surface low now developing to the west of russell. Lower/mid tropospheric cap is currently inhibiting convective development...but as large-scale ascent increases in capping layer next few hours...storms likely will develop.
Current indications are that initiation could occur as early as 21z east of hill city...with subsequent development east northeastward into the concordia ks/hastings and beatrice neb areas. Given magnitude of potential instability...storms will rapidly become severe with very large hail...before hodographs become increasingly favorable for tornadic supercells in the 29/21-30/00z time frame. By this time...boundary layer dew points are expected to climb to around 70f...contributing to favorable low-level thermodynamic environment for strong...possibly long-track...tornadoes.
If the storms are in the midwest today, they will be in the Ohio Valley tomorrow.
We had 4 fatalities with flash floods on Thursday. Tornado's in southern Indiania and Kentucky. We have 3 counties declared disaster areas. Trees are down all over in the storm area just from the wind.
We had 2 supercells back to back, The local weatherman had a field day. They got to prempt programing for 3 hrs as the storms tracked across.
Dusty, you can copy this information from your source into a Word document. Highlight the text, then select Format, Change Case and choose Sentence Case. You then can bring it paste it into your FR reply and people will be able to read it more easily.
Weakness in mid level flow over NE/KS may be a concern...but it may get stronger later...Extreme turning with height will support long lived violent tornadoes..
another area may be South east SD near a second low
Some good news: Duffy's Pub is open again - huge hole in the side and all. Best Porks around.
A_R
Tornado watch issued for IA/SD
North Texas ?? Rut-roh ! :^OThanks for the heads up.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971 , 12 42 PM CDT Saturday MAY 29 2004, areas affected , MUCH OF IOWA , South eastern SOUTH DAKOTA , North eastern NEBRASKA , South western MINNESOTA, concerning , SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972 , 01 02 PM CDT Saturday MAY 29 2004, areas affected , PARTS OF North Central Central KANSAS , South Central South east NEBRASKA, concerning , SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973 , 01 54 PM CDT Saturday MAY 29 2004, areas affected , North east COLORADO , South west NEBRASKA , North east KANSAS, concerning , SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
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