Posted on 05/24/2004 7:55:38 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
Alabama | 95.0 | 9 | 0 |
Alaska | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
Arizona | 67.0 | 10 | 0 |
Arkansas | 68.0 | 6 | 0 |
California | 14.0 | 0 | 55 |
Colorado | 79.0 | 9 | 0 |
Connecticut | 9.0 | 0 | 7 |
Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
Florida | 58.0 | 27 | 0 |
Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
Illinois | 14.0 | 0 | 21 |
Indiana | 91.0 | 11 | 0 |
Iowa | 42.0 | 0 | 7 |
Kansas | 93.0 | 6 | 0 |
Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
Louisiana | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
Maine | 19.0 | 0 | 4 |
Maryland | 11.0 | 0 | 10 |
Massachusetts | 2.0 | 0 | 12 |
Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
Minnesota | 35.0 | 0 | 10 |
Mississippi | 95.0 | 6 | 0 |
Missouri | 63.0 | 11 | 0 |
Montana | 92.0 | 3 | 0 |
Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
Nevada | 70.0 | 5 | 0 |
New Hampshire | 55.0 | 4 | 0 |
New Jersey | 20.0 | 0 | 15 |
New Mexico | 56.0 | 5 | 0 |
New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
North Carolina | 85.0 | 15 | 0 |
North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Ohio | 51.0 | 20 | 0 |
Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
Oregon | 44.0 | 0 | 7 |
Pennsylvania | 50.0 | 21 | 0 |
Rhode Island | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
South Carolina | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
Texas | 95.0 | 34 | 0 |
Utah | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
Vermont | 4.0 | 0 | 3 |
Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
Washington | 26.0 | 0 | 11 |
West Virginia | 64.0 | 5 | 0 |
Wisconsin | 45.0 | 0 | 10 |
Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
Totals | 304 | 234 |
I believe that many of them do.
See post #3.
So why all the sudden pessimism about his winning, even on FR? I don't get it!
Well, Pennsylvania is at 50.0% and Ohio is at 51.0%.
If President Bush loses both of these states with everything else held the same, he will lose the Election.
That is a very interesting question.
note PA...at 50%
Perfecto!!!
Got it, thanks. I just hope these predictions hold up.
Frankly, this projection seems much more an amusement than actual information. Aside from that, it all depends upon how evenly distributed the approval is. NYC, LA, and Boston can make a big divot in his approval rating, yet make no significant difference in his electoral College yield.
No doubt about it: Bush is in trouble. As usual, it's not of his doing; rather, the wholesale, all-out assault on him by virtually the entire media (aside from a handful of moderate or conservative forums), Hollywood (an awful lot of naive and immature voters are easily swayed by what their celebrity heroes have to say), and all of academe, has taken its toll. Make no mistake about it: This was planned; it's no coincidence that it's all coming down at the same time.
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