Posted on 05/24/2004 7:55:38 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
| State | % Chance of Bush Winning | Bush Electoral Votes | Kerry Electoral Votes |
| Alabama | 95.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Alaska | 93.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Arizona | 67.0 | 10 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 68.0 | 6 | 0 |
| California | 14.0 | 0 | 55 |
| Colorado | 79.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 9.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Delaware | 20.0 | 0 | 3 |
| District of Columbia | 0.5 | 0 | 3 |
| Florida | 58.0 | 27 | 0 |
| Georgia | 93.0 | 15 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 8.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Idaho | 95.0 | 4 | 0 |
| Illinois | 14.0 | 0 | 21 |
| Indiana | 91.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Iowa | 42.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Kansas | 93.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 80.0 | 9 | 0 |
| Maine | 19.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Maryland | 11.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | 2.0 | 0 | 12 |
| Michigan | 35.0 | 0 | 17 |
| Minnesota | 35.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | 95.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Missouri | 63.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Montana | 92.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 96.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Nevada | 70.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 55.0 | 4 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 20.0 | 0 | 15 |
| New Mexico | 56.0 | 5 | 0 |
| New York | 7.0 | 0 | 31 |
| North Carolina | 85.0 | 15 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Ohio | 51.0 | 20 | 0 |
| Oklahoma | 95.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Oregon | 44.0 | 0 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | 50.0 | 21 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 3.0 | 0 | 4 |
| South Carolina | 90.0 | 8 | 0 |
| South Dakota | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 87.0 | 11 | 0 |
| Texas | 95.0 | 34 | 0 |
| Utah | 95.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Vermont | 4.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Virginia | 83.0 | 13 | 0 |
| Washington | 26.0 | 0 | 11 |
| West Virginia | 64.0 | 5 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 45.0 | 0 | 10 |
| Wyoming | 95.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Totals | 304 | 234 |
Ohio and PA are true tossups. It will come down to the wire in both states.
Where did you get this table? I'd like to do some further analysis...
Ill be watching PA and Ohio closely.
Well, it's not hard to spot the trend.
We need to get this Iraq address behind us tonight and start turning it over to Iraqi's, then switch the message to the economy. Rate of growth. How many jobs have been created. Fueled by tax cuts. Etc.
I saw an interesting point made the other day. The point was that Bush had actually raised taxes in the sense that the deficit has grown so much. I hope that doesn't catch on as a pounding point.
LOL! Dont forget the homeless cigarette vote..
Hopefully we wont have to count dangling chads this time.
I do a million passes, on each the probability of each state going to Bush equals the probability from the report.
It would be interesting for me to have a travelogue for Bush & skerry. It may help give a sense of what the internal polls are saying. Does anyone know of a site that tracks their daily campaign trips?
You left out prison inmate, felon, ex-felon and the elderly who can't even remember voting drives!
Well, maybe I'm not clear on what you are doing or maybe I am computing this wrong but I get a mean of 280.3 and a stdev of 191.03 which gives a probility of win (using a normal approximation) of 52.3%. Of course this is assuming independence between the states which is not realistic. There is certainly positive correlation between the states which would mean that the stdev is smaller than 191.03 and thus the probability of a win is larger than 52.3%.
I don't think you have to do monte carlo on this. It seems that you should be able to compute the std deviation (assuming independence) by formula. Or maybe you are doing something more sophisticated then this to get a more realistic estimate of the std dev?
btt
How does this reconcile to all the recent polling data that show GWB with a 42 - 46% approval rating? It's difficult to imagine 305 ECV's with an approval under 50%. Seems to be a disconnect somewhere.
because most of the poll percentages you are seeing are produced by liberal agencies. ;)
Oh no, my bad. Actually the positive correlation between states would mean that the actual std dev would be higher than 191.03 and thus the probability of a win (for Bush) would be less than 52.3% (but still greater than 50%.)
"because most of the poll percentages you are seeing are produced by liberal agencies. ;)"
Doesn't quite cut it from where I'm sitting. And, with OH 50% and PA 51% these ECV #'s could turn ugly real fast.
There factored in in IL. Although I think people are beginning to tire of Daily and Blagoyovich but the dead vote will be there in great numbers as long as Daily controls the Chicago precincts.
Nebraska 96.0 Remember Bubba in his last days went to Nebraska - the only state he hadn't been in. Guess he didn't pollute it in any fashion. Don't think that there are not a few commies undercover there & how that state elects Hagel is very disturbing.
PA is winner-take-all. There are 2 proportional states. One, IIRC, is Maine and I can't recall the other one. I know the savvy statisticians know which ones, exactly.
But my point was that he shows the state as 50/50. So why does he give Bush the electoral votes rather than Kerry?
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