The Day After "The Day After Tomorrow"

Everyone loves to talk about the weather, and leave it to Hollywood to capitalize on our fascination with the atmosphere. Some of the greatest movie scenes of all times have featured incredible lightning, hurricanes, droughts, tornadoes, blizzards, floods, dust storms, heat waves, and every conceivable (and inconceivable) perfect and imperfect storm. Kevin Costner's 1995 Waterworld warned of a sweltering world of rising seas and reduced land areas thanks to elevated levels of greenhouse gases. But now, Hollywood has decided to entertain (or scare) us with a fascinating twist to the global warming apocalypse -- this time around, our greenhouse gases cause a disruption to ocean currents, and the Earth abruptly plunges into unthinkable meteorological calamities and an immediate ice age.

In many respects, the latest cinematic addition to the greenhouse legacy mirrors the mood swings in the scientific community. Only 25 years ago, Newsweek presented an article entitled "The Cooling World" in which we were warned in the first sentence:

Since then, catastrophic predictions have appeared regarding "Nuclear Winter," a climate collapse following the Kuwait oil fires, global warming, and now, climate freezing due to global warming. You must wonder if the community of climate scientists was behind the Y2K scare as well?

Anything is possible, so enjoy the latest movie. Of course, anything was possible in movies featuring Earth being saved from meteors, space aliens, deadly bacteria, evil villains, and anything else the imagination of a billion dollar industry can concoct. Super-heroes saving the Earth makes for a great storyline, especially in the summer and Christmas blockbuster movie super seasons.

Not to spoil the fun, but here are some facts regarding the "science" behind "The Day After Tomorrow." It is true that some theoretical climate models predict that the thermohaline circulation (the Gulf Stream is part of this global oceanic conveyer belt) will be impacted by additional fresh water pouring into the North Atlantic from melting ice and increased discharge from major rivers. However, other models predict a strengthening of the Gulf Stream with increased heat energy being pumped into the North Atlantic. Either scenario takes decades-to-centuries to be realized, not a few days.

Some evidence certainly exists that the climate system changed abruptly thousands of years ago over the time span of decades. Those swings occurred when concentrations of greenhouse gases were much lower than the levels observed today, and those gyrations are not simulated by existing climate models. It is very possible that higher levels of greenhouse gases will protect us from these fantastic swings in climate, just as higher levels of greenhouse gases may protect us from the next ice age due in a few thousand years.

"The Day After Tomorrow" requires substantial changes in climate to precede an immediate collapse of the climate system, most notably, a significant rise in global temperature. The near-surface thermometer records around the globe show a warming of approximately 0.7°C (1.3°F) since 1900, but the thermometer record is severely compromised by changes in measurement equipment, urban growth around weather stations, and the lack of coverage over enormous areas of the Earth. Satellite-based sensors are able to peer-down and very accurately measure the temperature of the low atmosphere for the entire planet, and they have observed little warming since they became operational in 1978. Weather balloons are launched daily at sites around the world, and their temperature record is in near-perfect agreement with the satellite-based dataset. We need to see a lot more warming before any climate rubber band can snap and the system goes haywire.

In some eyes in the theater, the movie will be a call to arms to do something about global warming -- can the movie revive the all-but-dead Kyoto Protocol? If you have forgotten, the Kyoto Protocol aimed at stabilizing emissions of greenhouse gases, not their concentrations in the atmosphere. Even if the magic wand of Kyoto could stabilize carbon dioxide emissions today (and Kyoto seeks to stabilize emissions to 1990 levels), we would continue to pump billions of tons of these gases into the atmosphere each year, and we would still achieve a doubling of concentrations somewhere near the middle of this century. The Kyoto Protocol would have little impact on greenhouse gas concentrations, and the climate impact would be undetectable for many decades to come. Of course, the undesirable economic impacts of the Protocol would be easily detected immediately. It is a classic case of all pain, no gain; high economic costs and zero climate impacts suffer from an indefensible cost/benefit ratio.

Therein lies the theme for a new blockbuster also called "The Day After Tomorrow." The United States adopts the Kyoto Protocol and the immediate economic impacts plunge us and the world into a depression of biblical proportions! Hollywood will have a problem warming up to that script far too close to reality.

First let us start out with some precursor information.

Historically timekeeping and calendars have been tied to the motions found in the heavens. These have been primarily the stars, our Moon, and the Sun. To get a rudimentary understanding of how time is measured and where we got our units of time, we must first talk about the motions of these heavenly bodies referenced back to our Earth. The background for this post will start with the Celestial Sphere, followed with a description of the Earth Sun relationship, and finally with the Earth Moon relationships/system.

The Celestial sphere:

When we look up at the stars in the night sky they appear to be stationary relative to each other. As the Earth moves from one side of the Sun to the other, the displacement of those stars due to parallax is less than one second of arc even for the nearest star (Proxima Centauri). One way of looking at this is a fixed sphere of stars surrounding the Earth/Sun system. This is often referred to as the Celestial Sphere. This is why some of the ancient civilizations considered the stars to be holes in a tapestry.

Since we are talking distances and parallax, lets briefly take a moment and describe such. The more familiar term for the layman when referring to stellar distances is called a light year. This is the distance light will travel in one calendar year. For example the star Proxima Centauri is approximately 4.22 light years from our solar system. Astronomers use another term that may be not so familiar called the Parsec. The Parsec (parallax-arcsecond) is the distance needed for an object (star) to have a shift of one arcsecond referenced to one astronomical second (AU), the average distance from the Earth to the Sun or approximately 93 million miles. An arcsecond is 1/60 of an arcminute, which is 1/60 of a degree. However, there are no stars that are close enough to exhibit this large a shift. The distance of a Parsec is about 3.26 light years and the nearest star is 4.22 light years.

Even though it appears the stars remain in “fixed” locations in the night sky, over a period of time the stars do move relative to each other and relative to the Earth. This is why the right ascension and declination (star location) changes over the years. If you look at a star catalogue based on the epoch B1950 and one base on the epoch J2000, you will notice some differences.

Another interesting item of note is that the constellations we see are made up of the brightest stars. Even in the same constellation these stars are at different distances from the Earth. Some may be dimmer than the others, however, being closer they are just as bright as a larger one further away. The brightness of a star is called its magnitude. There are two ways astronomers measure magnitude: Apparent Magnitude and Absolute Magnitude.

The Apparent Magnitude is how bright a star appears to us here on the Earth. The Absolute Magnitude is how bright a star would appear if it were exactly ten parsecs away from the Earth. (Close to 33 light years).

Two notes:

1) Apparent magnitude is usually denoted with a small “m” and absolute magnitude uses a capital “M”.

2) The magnitude scale is backwards of what you might think, the larger the number the fainter the object.

Since the Earth is tilted (23.5 degrees) in reference to the path it sweeps out in its orbit about the Sun, this path projected onto the celestial sphere does not fall on the celestial equator. This imaginary plane is called the ecliptic. Note: This angle between the ecliptic and the equatorial plane is called The Obliquity of The Ecliptic.

This imaginary plane crosses the celestial equator in two places (called the equinoxes). The Vernal Equinox falls in the spring as the Sun appears to cross the ecliptic going north and the Autumnal Equinox falls in autumn when the Sun again crosses the ecliptic, this time going south. Note: Vernal comes from the Latin vernalis, meaning spring. Also the term equinox relates to the word equal since both day and night are close to the same, 12 hours during the equinox.

The points where this plane is the farthest above (north) and below (south) the celestial equator is called the solstices. In the northern hemisphere of the earth, the most northern point of the ecliptic is called the Summer Solstice and the southern most is called the Winter Solstice. In the Southern hemisphere of the Earth the reverse is true.

The zodiac lies along the plane of the ecliptic. Since the Earth is orbiting the Sun, the Sun appears to follow the plane of the ecliptic, making one complete circle in one calendar year. The name “zodiac” comes from the Greek meaning animal circle. Note: The path of the Moon and the other planets fall pretty much on this plane as well. Since it takes 365 days for the Earth to orbit the Sun and there are 360 degrees in a circle, the Sun moves pretty close to 1 degree per day.

If you were to draw a line out from the Earth intersecting the Vernal Equinox, that line would be referred to as The First Point of Aries. The reason it was called this is that this line pointed to the first star in the constellation of Ares in March of 1950.

The celestial sphere is tied to the Earth for its coordinate system. Project the Earth’s equator out to infinity and you have the equator of the celestial sphere. Likewise the north and south poles of the Earth points to the north and south poles of the celestial sphere respectively. This makes it very easy to map the sky referenced to the Earth. This coordinate system is called the Equatorial Coordinate System. It ties in closely with our own geographic coordinate system here on the surface of the Earth.

There is one fundamental difference however. The geographic coordinate system is fixed upon the surface of the Earth (Lat Long) so it rotates with the rotation of the Earth. The celestial coordinate system is fixed to the celestial sphere and appears to rotate due to the Earth’s rotation. The “latitude” of the celestial sphere (the angle of an object above or below the celestial equator) is called declination with zero being on the equator. This is pretty easy since the celestial’s equator and poles appear to be fixed like our own earth. Unlike the Earth, since the celestial sphere appears to be rotating, the “longitude”, called right ascension, is not a “fixed” reference to the Earth. So instead of using degrees, hours were used for this measurement. First there needed to be a “fixed” direction to measure from. The Vernal Equinox was selected as the zero reference for the right ascension. Since there are 360 degrees in a circle, the Earth rotates about 15 degrees every hour. So you will note right ascension is measured in hours/minutes/seconds as apposed to degrees. Remember that for declination Zero is on the equator and for right ascension zero is at the Vernal Equinox. So the Vernal Equinox will have the coordinates of 0 degrees and 0 hours. This then becomes the center point for an Equatorial Sky Chart.

On to the Earth-Sun system: It takes one year for the Earth to rotate around the Sun one time and 24 hours to rotate on its axis. Think about this relationship. Not only is the Earth revolving on its axis, it is in motion about the Sun. (I know this is really basic grade school stuff, however, it will help in visualizing the concepts I am about to explain) Therefore the Earth moves 1/365th of its orbit about the Sun every day.

Ok, here is where that visualization will come in handy. Since a “day” is described by one complete rotation of the Earth on its axis, this equates from noon to noon (when a point on the Earth is directly pointed at the Sun). The term for this is called the Mean Solar Day. But here is the rub; the Earth has moved during this period of time we called a day. So the Earth must turn a tiny bit more to have the same spot facing the Sun every day.

Now let us think of this celestial sphere we have been chatting about. Remember the stars appear fixed in one location (at least on a daily basis). This means that one complete revolution of the Earth referenced to a star does not take that little bit of extra time to be over the same spot on the Earth. This “day” is referred to as a Sidereal Day. It takes approximately four extra minutes for the Earth to have the Sun over the same location on the Earth than a star.

This is the difference between a Sidereal Day and a Mean Solar Day.

Also the Earth is tilted on its axis from the plane of the ecliptic by 23.5 degrees. That tilt causes the North Pole to be currently pointed towards Polaris. As the Earth moves around the sun its pole stays pointed at Polaris. This is the cause of the seasons we experience. Note. This tilt varies back and forth from 21.6 degrees to 24.5 degrees approximately every 41,000 years.

There is also a precession of our pole and it sweeps a complete circle in the sky (think of the Earth as a top wobbling as it rotates) about every 26,000 years. This gives us different pole stars as the north pole of the Earth sweeps out a circle on the celestial sphere.

There are also a number of other motions that must be taken into consideration over the years such as the precession of the aphelion. Our Earth’s orbit around the Sun is not a perfect circle. It is an ellipse with the closest point of the orbit called the perihelion and the furthest point the aphelion. Currently the aphelion falls on the fourth of July. However, this is not always the case. The aphelion and perihelion change over the centuries and sweeps thru the calendar year with a periodicity of around 22,000 years. The amount of “squishing” of an ellipse is called its eccentricity. If the eccentricity is equal to zero the orbit will be a perfect circle. Between zero and one the path of an orbit is an ellipse. Note: A circle is also known as a degenerate ellipse. However, should the eccentricity equal exactly one, the path becomes a parabola and finally, if the eccentricity is greater than one, the path then becomes a hyperbola.

The Earth’s eccentricity is very small. However, even this changes over time. Its eccentricity varies periodically about every 100,000 years. There are also other motions caused by the Moon, Jupiter and the Sun called Nutations. One of the major nutations has a period of 18.6 years.

Now that we have taken a cursory look at the Earth/Sun system, there is another big factor in all of this. It is called the Moon. The reason the Moon keeps one face to the Earth (Its rotation on its axis matches the period of its orbit) is it is tidally locked to the Earth. This tidal locking will eventually cause the Earth and Moon to keep one face to each other.

Here is a more in depth explanation. The total angular momentum of the earth moon system, which is spin angular momentum plus the orbital angular momentum, is constant. (The Sun plays apart also) Friction of the oceans caused by the tides is causing the Earth to slow down a tiny bit each year. This is approximately two milliseconds per century causing the moon to recede by about 4 centimeters per year. As the Earth slows down, the Moon must recede to keep the total angular momentum a constant. In other words as the spin angular momentum of the earth decreases, the lunar orbital angular momentum must increase. Here is an interesting side note. The velocity of the moon will slow down as the orbit increases.

Another example of tidal locking is the orbit period and rotation of the planet Mercury. What is interesting about this one is that instead of a 1:1 synchronization where Mercury would keep one face to the Sun at all times, it is actually in a 2/3:1 synchronization. This is due to the High eccentricity of its orbit.

There also can be more than one body “locked” to each other. Lets take a look at the moon Io. Io is very nearly the same size as the Earth’s moon. It is approximately 1.04 times the size of the moon. There is a resonance between Io, Ganymede, and Europa. Io completes four revolutions for every one of Ganymede and two of Europa. This is due to a Laplace Resonance phenomenon. A Laplace Resonance is when more than two bodies are forced into a minimum energy configuration.

Since we are now talking about orbiting bodies, let us digress just a wee bit further and briefly talk about orbits:

There are different sizes and shapes of orbits. We use the term Semi-Major Axis to measure the size of an orbit. It is the distance from the geometric center of the ellipse to either the apogee or perigee (The highest (apo) and the lowest (peri)). Apoapsis is a general term for the greatest radial distance of an Ellipse as measured from a Focus. Apoapsis for an orbit around the Earth is called apogee, and apoapsis for an orbit around the Sun is called aphelion.

Periapsis is a general term for the smallest radial distance of an Ellipse as measured from a Focus. Periapsis for an orbit around the Earth is called perigee, and periapsis for an orbit around the Sun is called perihelion.

The terms Gee and Helios comes from the Greek words “Ge” (earth) and “Helios” (Sun) respectively.

First lets talk a bit about “where it is”. An orbit is a nothing more than an object falling around another object. Both Kepler and Newton came up with a set of laws that describe this phenomenon.

Kepler’s three laws of planetary motion:

1) The orbit of a planet is an ellipse with the sun at one of the foci.
2) The line drawn between a planet and the sun sweep out equal areas in equal times.
3) The square of the periods of the planets is proportional to the cubes of their mean distance from the sun.

So what is that telling us? In a nutshell, all orbits are ellipses, the close to the body you are orbiting the faster you go (e.g. if you have a highly elliptical orbit the satellite or planet’s velocity will increase as it approaches the object being orbited and decrease as it get further away).

These laws not only apply to planets and satellites, but to any orbiting body.

Note: Super geek alert #1:

For an orbiting body this is not entirely correct. It turns out that both bodies end up orbiting a common center of mass of the two-body system. However, for satellites, the mass of the Earth is so much greater than the mass of the satellite, the effective center of mass is the center of the Earth.

Newton’s three laws (and law of gravitation):

1) The first law states that every object will remain at rest or in uniform motion in a straight line unless compelled to change its state by the action of an external force. (Commonly known as inertia)
2) The second law states that force is equal to the change in momentum (MV) per change in time. (For a constant mass, force equals mass times acceleration F=ma)
3) The third law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. In other words, if an object exerts a force on another object, a resulting equal force is exerted back on the original object.

Newton’s law of gravitation states that any two bodies attract one another with a force proportional to the product of their masses and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them.

Note: Super geek alert #2:

Actual observed positions did not quite match the predictions under classical Newtonian physics. Albert Einstein later solved this discrepancy with his “General Theory of Relativity”. There are four classical “tests” that cemented General Relativity:

1) In November of 1919, using a solar eclipse, experimental verification of his theory was performed by measuring the apparent change in a stars position due to the bending of the light buy the sun’s gravity.
2) The changing orientation of the major axis or Mercury not exactly matching classical mechanics.
3) Gravitational Redshift
4) Gravitational Time Dilation

So what is all this trying to tell us? Planets, satellites, etc orbit their parents in predictable trajectories allowing us to “know” where they will be at any given time. A set of coordinates showing the location of these objects over a period of time is called its ephemeris.

Historically, time has been measured by the rotation of the Earth on its axis and the time it takes to rotate once about the Sun (a year). However, both of these are not uniform enough for precise calculations.

One of the units of time is called the second. It used to be defined as 1/86,400 of a Mean Solar Day. This was good enough for early calculations, but don’t forget that the Earth is slowing down due to tidal forces so that ends up changing over time. After a number of intermediate steps the second was finally redefined as:

The duration of 9,192,631,770 periods of the radiation corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the cesium 133 atom. (Atomic time), also known as Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).

Since the Earth is slowing down approximately 1.4 milliseconds per day per century, this deceleration causes the Earth’s rotational time to vary from atomic time. The current true (instantaneous) rotation rate of the Earth is called UT1 (which is a non-uniform rotation). Over a period of a year the difference between it and UTC can approach a full second. However, since the Earth’s rotation is non-uniform, it is monitored continuously. If the difference between UT1 and UTC approaches 0.9 seconds, a leap second is added or subtracted from UTC to keep it uniform with the Earth’s rotation. So far all of the leap seconds have been positive. This tallies with the slowing of the Earth from tidal braking.

Note: Since the GPS time does not have leap seconds added or subtracted, it is diverging with UTC with every second added to UTC. Currently it is different by 13 seconds. This can cause some consternation when flying a satellite or spacecraft that uses GPS. If your ephemeris is calculated in GPS time and you receive a “vector” in UTC time, it will be off by 13 seconds. You just cannot add 13 or subtract 13 seconds and press on. The rub is that not only has the satellite moved 13 seconds in-track, the Earth has rotated underneath by 13 seconds (cross-track) as well. This is especially noticeable for the high inclination orbits. Vectors have to be recalculated when translating between GPS and UTC.

The interesting note is that the last time a leap second was needed was clear back in 1999. Remember, the deceleration of the Earth is not uniform. There may be a number of factors that cause this non-linearity such as snow and ice loads, earthquakes and others we haven’t even thought of. This could account for this long delay between leap seconds. This certainly is not a permanent condition. The Earth will continue to slow down and the deceleration will still vary.

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The Day After "The Day After Tomorrow"

there were no ice-ages during the Carboniferous period.