Economic Good News Continues Rolling In

The three of the four biggest reports that economists look for in evaluating the strength and trends of the economy are the monthly Conference Board report, the ISM report and the employment reports from the Department of Labor are based on current data.

The fourth, Consumer Confidence, tends to lag behind the other economic news, similar to jobs creation, but does not lag as much. Consumer Confidence in April was up.

============================================= The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which was unchanged last month, rose in April. The Index now stands at 92.9 (1985=100), up from 88.5 in March. The Present Situation Index rose to 90.6 from 84.4. The Expectations Index increased to 94.5 from 91.3.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/consumerconfidence.cfm =============================================

============================================= Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in April for the 11th consecutive month, while the overall economy grew for the 30th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB052004.cfm =============================================

============================================= "Non-manufacturing Business Activity increased for the 13th consecutive month in April," Kauffman said. He added, "Also in April, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Employment, Imports, Prices, Exports, and Inventories increased."

http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NMROB052004.cfm =============================================

Once again, just released, the Conference Board report comes in with positive economic news.

============================================= The U.S. Leading Index Edges Up in April

The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.2 percent in April.

The leading index increased only slightly in April, but the March increase was revised up from 0.3 percent to 0.8 percent as actual data became available. As a result, the leading index is still increasing at an average annual rate of 3.5 to 4.0 percent. The coincident index continued on its steady upward trend in April. The growth rate of the coincident index has been strengthening in recent months, and every component has been contributing to this strength.

The pickup in the growth rate of the leading index last year signaled stronger economic growth, and correspondingly, real GDP increased at a 5.5 percent annual rate over the last three quarters. The current 3.5 to 4.0 percent growth rate of the leading index is signaling the continuation of this relatively strong rate of economic growth in the near term.

Four of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in April. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, real money supply*, building permits, and stock prices. The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly manufacturing hours, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*, vendor performance, index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*, and average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted).

The leading index now stands at 115.9 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in March and remained unchanged in February. During the six-month span through April, the leading index increased 1.8 percent, with nine out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 90 percent).

All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were industrial production, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, personal income less transfer payments*, and manufacturing and trade sales*.

The coincident index now stands at 116.8 (1996=100). This index increased 0.2 percent in March and increased 0.3 percent in February. During the six-month period through April, the coincident index increased 1.4 percent.

The lagging index stands at 98.0 (1996=100) in April, with five of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in CPI for services, commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, change in labor cost per unit of output*, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales* and average prime rate charged by banks held steady in April. Based on revised data, the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March and decreased 0.2 percent in February.

http://www.conference-board.org/economics/press.cfm?press_ID=2398 =============================================

With over 1,100,000 jobs created since August 2003 and over 600,000 created in the last two months, the jobs issue is becoming a positive for Bush.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls (Check Civillian Employment, scroll down and click on retrieve data)

So what have the leftists and democrats done now ? They are back trying to mislead the people and using gas prices to do it. They try and mislead by placing blame, they misrepresent by saying it is the highest in history, when the truth, if the price is adjusted for inflation, it comes no where near the price of gas during the Carter adminstration, which in adjusted figures was around $2.90 a gallon.

The truth about the reason for rising gas prices is simple supply and demand economics. OPEC had cut production while demand was increasing. Emerging economic powers China and India, as well as Japan have increased their demand for oil products considerably. OPEC is currently having an emergency meeting and considering raising production levels.

There is nothing to be alarmed about, this is typical scare tactics and negativity from the left. Now, to be fair, Bush trying to blame democrats for not passing his energy bill is also misleading, because the impact would be minimal on gas prices at this point, because ANWR oil production would still be being developed, pipelines and all. But, in the long run, it would add over 1,000,000 barrels a day of domestic oil production.

What is the lefts answer ? Tapping into the strategic oil reserves, which are intended for actual emergencies in this country. The truth about tapping into the reserve is that it would have a minor effect on the price of gasoline. It makes a good sound bite but would have minimal impact and weaken our defense by cutting our emergency reserve.

Should any of us be surprised that issues such as this are politicized ? Not really, but jaundiced eyes are required when evaluating politicization of the economy.

Also LS,

Regaring your jobless claims assertion, that must be taken in context. The below, from CBS and AP, of all sources, puts that figure in context, though they had to add their qualifiers and pro-Kerry comments in the middle, without making any positive comments about Bush or giving him any credit.

(CBS/AP) The number of people signing up for jobless benefits rose last week, but the level of filings still pointed to a recovery in the labor market.

Meanwhile, a private research group's closely watched indicator of future economic activity edged up in April, providing more evidence of a sustained recovery.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment insurance climbed by a seasonally adjusted 12,000 to 345,000 for the week ending May 15. Claims below 400,000 suggest the job market is improving.

Economists were forecasting claims that were filed last week to fall to about 326,000.

In an encouraging note, the more stable, four-week moving average of claims, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, dropped last week to 333,500. That was the lowest level since Nov. 18, 2000.

Even with last week's increase, the one-week layoff picture looks better than compared with the same time last year, when claims were at 424,000. Claims reached a high last year of 444,000 in the middle of April.

"There's really been an improvement," said Frank Mastromauro, equity strategist with Chase Personal Financial Services. "We do think job growth is definitely going to be supportive of overall economic growth," he said.

The unemployment rate fell to 5.6 percent in April as businesses bolstered payrolls and added 288,000 jobs. Mastromauro said he believes payrolls will grow by a solid 150,000 in May. The government releases the employment report for May on June 4.

Despite the optimistic showing on employment, the job market needs to get even stronger. The economy has lost a net 1.5 million jobs since President Bush took office in January 2001. Private economists said it will take time to recoup those losses.

John Kerry, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, has pointed to the losses as evidence that Mr. Bush's economic policies are not working. Mr. Bush says a strengthening economy eventually will put more people to work.

The economy grew at a 4.2 percent pace in the first three months of this year. Economists believe economic growth in the April-June period will be between 4.5 percent to 5 percent.

The New York Times reports that while job seekers may want the economy to continue heating up, stock markets are waiting for it to cool down, because growth could trigger inflation and higher interest rates, both of which cut into profits.

With the job market's rebound, the Federal Reserve is expected to begin to raise a key short-term interest rate to keep inflation down. The rate has held at 1 percent since last June, the lowest in 46 years.

Some economists believe the Fed will order a rate increase next month; others predict a move in August or later.

The Conference Board said Thursday its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.1 percent in April, after a revised gain of 0.8 percent the previous month. The latest increase was slightly lower than the 0.2 percent rise forecast by analysts.

The April reading points to "continued strong economic and job growth through the third quarter," said Ken Goldstein, an economist for the Conference Board.

"While there are growing concerns about rising gasoline prices this spring, as well as worries about what happens after all the tax refunds have been spent, the indicators are not signaling any softening in America's basic economic fundamentals," he said.

The index is tracked as a measure of the economy's direction during the coming six months. Of the 10 components making up the index, four increased last month, including the real money supply, building permits and stock prices.

The Conference Board also said its gauge of current economic activity continued to strengthen in April, rising 0.3 percent.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/05/20/national/main618675.shtml

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