Posted on 05/20/2004 7:52:29 AM PDT by WinOne4TheGipper
May 20, 2004 Bush and Kerry Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in Florida
George W. Bush and John Kerry remain tied among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Kerry. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 4% of likely voters are undecided. In a survey completed in April, Bush was at 46%, Kerry was at 45%, and Nader was at 3%
In a ballot question without Nader, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush and 47% say they would vote for Kerry, with 6% of likely voters undecided. This is unchanged from April.
These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party. The interviews were conducted May 17 through 19, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Florida likely voters May 19 Apr 21 Mar 4
George W. Bush 47% 46% 44% John Kerry 46% 45% 45% Ralph Nader 3% 3% 4% Undecided 4% 6% 7%
While Kerry leads Bush 47% to 40% among likely voters not affiliated with a major party, Bush runs stronger among Republicans than Kerry runs among Democrats and Bush is the choice among 11% of Democrats.
Party Republicans (40%) Democrats (44%) None/Minor (16%)
George W. Bush 89% 11% 40% John Kerry 7% 81% 47% Ralph Nader 1% 3% 6% Undecided 3% 5% 7%
In terms of awareness and favorability, all likely voters say they are aware of George W. Bush and 94% say they are aware of John Kerry.
A total of 48% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 47% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.
A total of 46% of likely voters say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 45% say they have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.
A total of 72% of likely voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Ralph Nader.
Awareness and favorability Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided
George W. Bush: May 19 2004 100% 48% 47% 5% Apr 21 2004 100% 48% 45% 7% Mar 4 2004 100% 48% 47% 5%
John Kerry: May 19 2004 94% 46% 45% 3% Apr 21 2004 94% 44% 45% 5% Mar 4 2004 93% 41% 41% 11%
Ralph Nader: May 19 2004 93% 6% 72% 15% Apr 21 2004 95% 8% 70% 17% Mar 4 2004 95% 17% 53% 25%
A total of 89% of Republicans say they have a favorable opinion of Bush and 80% of Democrats say they have an unfavorable opinion of Bush.
A total of 81% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of Kerry and 89% of Republicans have an unfavorable opinion of Kerry.
A total of 80% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Nader.
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About this survey:
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely voters in Florida. Of the 600 likely voters, 40% are Republicans, 44% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.
Sample Dates: May 17-19, 2004
Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.
Subject: A GREEN BERET TAKES ON JOHN KERRY!
Open Letter to John Kerry:
My wife had rotator cuff surgery earlier this year, and the recovery is
terribly painful. Then, she developed a staph-epi infection, and they
had to cut the same scar open and operate on her again. Just thinking
about the pain and anxiety of facing that painful surgery a second time
in the same wound, makes me cringe. That experience, however pales in
comparison to what I am going through right now, in my heart.
The old hurts are surfacing and the feelings of betrayal by fellow
citizens, and their leader stirring them up, are breaking my heart
again. I am being cut in the same scar. How did we who served in Vietnam
suddenly become cold-blooded killers, torturers, and rapists, of the ilk
of the Nazi SS or the Taliban? Most of us were American soldiers who
grew up idolizing John Wayne, Roy Rogers, and all the other heroes. That
was why I volunteered. But for political expediency, John Kerry has
rewritten history, again.
After spending only four months in the country of Vietnam, John Kerry
testified before Congress in 1971 with these exact words about incidents
he supposedly witnessed or heard about from other vets: "They personally
raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones
to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up
bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages, shot cattle and dogs
for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of
South Vietnam."
I was a green beret officer who volunteered for duty in Vietnam and
fought in the thick of it in 1968 and 1969 on a Special Forces A-team on
the Ho Chi Minh Trail, just for starters. We were the elite. We saw the
most action. Everybody in the world knows that. But we did not just kill
people, we built a church, a school, treated illnesses, passed out soap,
food, and clothing, and had fun and loving interaction with the
indigenous people of Vietnam, just like our boys did in Normandy,
Baghdad, Saigon, and everywhere American soldiers ever served. We all
gave away our candy bars and rations to kids, and our hearts to
oppressed people all over the globe.
My children and grandchildren could read your words, and think those
horrendous things about me, Mr. Kerry. You are a bold-faced,
unprincipled liar, and a disgrace, and you have dishonored me and all my
fellow Vietnam veterans. Sure, there were a couple bad-apples, but I saw
none, and I saw it all, and if I did, as an army officer, it was my
obligation to stop it, or at the very least report it. Why is there not
a single record anywhere of you ever reporting any incidents like this
or having the perpetrators arrested? The answer is simple. You are a
liar.
Your medals and mine are not a free pass for lifetime, Senator Kerry,
to bypass character, integrity, and morality. I earn my green beret over
and over daily in all aspects of my life.
Eight National Guard green berets, and other National Guard soldiers,
have been killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and you totally dishonored
their widows and families by lumping National Guard service in with
being a draft-dodger, conscientious objector, and deserter, just so you
can try to sabotage the patriotism of our President who proudly served
as an Air National Guard jet pilot. I have a son earning his green
beret at Fort Bragg right now, and his wife serves honorably in the Air
National Guard, just like President Bush did, and I am as proud of her
as I am my son. I volunteered for Vietnam and have no problem whatsoever
with President Bush being our Commander-In-Chief. In fact, I am proud of
him as our leader.
John Kerry, you personally derailed the Vietnam Human rights Bill,
HR2883, in 2001, after it had passed the House by a 411 to 1 vote, and
thousands of pro-American Montagnard tribes people in Vietnam died since
then who could have been saved, by you. Earlier, as Chair of the Senate
Select Committee on MIA/POW Affairs, you personally quashed the efforts
of any and all veterans to report sightings of living POW's, when you
held those reins in Congress. You have fought tooth and nail to push for
the US to normalize relations with Vietnam for years.
Why, Mr. Kerry? Simple, your first cousin C. Stewart Forbes, CEO, of
Colliers International, recently signed a contract with Hanoi, worth
BILLIONS of dollars for Collier's International to become the exclusive
real estate representative for the country of Vietnam.
"Hanoi John," now that it works for you, you beat your chest about your
Vietnam service, but to me, you are a phony, opportunistic, hypocrite.
You are one of those politicians that is like a fertilizer machine: all
that comes out of you is horse manure, and you are spreading it every-
where.
Medals do not make a man. Morals do.
Don Bendell
Canon City, Colorado
Don Bendell served as an officer in four Special Forces Groups, is a
best-selling author with over 1,500,000 books in print, a 1995 inductee
into the International Karate Hall of Fame, and owns karate schools in
southern Colorado.
This is the second poll recently showing President Bush getting 89% of the Republican vote. However, Zogby shows him only getting 81%. Hmmmmmmmmm.
and who are the people most likely to vote . . . opionated people with time on their hands (coincidentally enough - wealthy seniors.)
"In the two polls I've seen lately, the numbers I find interesting say that there are more democrats likely to vote for President Bush right now than republicans likely to vote for Kerry."
poll ping
. . . these are excellent numbers from ARG which always skews LEFT.
[FYI: NONE of these pollsters 'weight' the Hispanic vote correctly in Florida, which is why they ALL -- including Zogby -- BLEW the gubernatorial race in 2002. In 2002, the pollsters called the race a TOSS-UP, yet Jeb Bush won by double digits! Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm?!]
I wonder if the supporters of Michael R. Schiavo are solidly in the Kerry camp, while those sympathetic to his "wife," Terri, are for Bush. This Schiavo case is dividing FL politics.
On Larry King Live, Michael R. Schiavo, a popular Clearwater nurse, said that he was "for abortion rights" even as he acknowledged at least two out-of-wedlock births by women other than his "wife" Terri, whom he seeks to dehydrate and starve but won't "divorce."
I think they are evenly split as the poll suggests.
My point is the poll could not possibly be demographically aggregate being such a small sample(600) and being telephone only. I suggest that the working folk (ages 18-55) of FL were not represented in these numbers.
If the poll sample was thousands and Online in addition to Phone, the results would carry more credibility.
lurch doesn't have a prayer in Florida - period! I don't care what this rat poll says.
Good point.
If you really want to add an extra twist in the Dade County - add Buchanan's name on the ballot...
:o)
What about UNlikely voters? The NAAlCP is doing heavy voter registration in south flordia based on that principle.
FL still does not have a centralized voter registrant system. In theory you could vote in all 67 counties. Or at lease register the homeless (which is being done at homeless shelters which have magically popped up in dade and broward) at more than one shelter.
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