Posted on 05/20/2004 2:26:00 AM PDT by billorites
THINK THE RACE between George W. Bush and John F. Kerry is going to be close? Been hearing a lot about a 50-50 nation? Think the red and blue states are going to grapple and grunt and groan and give us another nail-biter on Election Night?
Nah. Not gonna happen. This race is going to be a blowout, a tsunami, a Krakatoa. At least that is the hottest new theory that has been occupying the chattering classes for weeks now.
“The most likely outcome of this race is a landslide victory for John Kerry,” says Chuck Todd, editor-in-chief of the nonpartisan political briefing The Hotline. “The second most likely outcome is a landslide victory for George Bush. The least likely outcome is a close race.”
Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton’s political director during his 1996 re-election campaign, says, “I don’t think this race will be close.” And while he is not yet “100 percent certain” who will win, he does say, “The numbers for President Bush show him in grave danger.”
Tony Quinn, co-editor of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan political publication, says that maybe the experts who have been telling us how divided the nation is “are all wrong, and this will be a blowout election that could go in either direction.”
And The Wall Street Journal reported last week that campaign operatives are bracing for “a race that breaks decisively one way or another.”
Wait, it gets better. We won’t even have to wait until November to find out which way things are breaking! According to Sosnik, “the next 90 days will determine the outcome of the election.” But how about all those stories you’ve been reading about how this election “is going down to the wire” and will be determined in the final days before Nov. 2? Nah, again. “The least important phase of this election,” Sosnik says, “will be the last 14 days.”
True, there are those who disagree, primarily Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush re-election campaign, who says, “I am not (expletive deleted) Jean Dixon and I don’t bend spoons, but given the nature of the country I don’t think there is going to be a landslide either in the popular vote or the Electoral College.”
But Todd bases his landslide theory on the history of recent elections: In the past 25 years, incumbent Presidents have either won or lost by large margins in the Electoral College. In 1980, Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan 49 to 489. In 1984, Reagan beat Walter Mondale 525 to 13. In 1992, George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton 168 to 370, and in 1996, Clinton beat Bob Dole 379 to 159.
In other words, when it comes to casting a thumbs-up or a thumbs-down on their incumbent Presidents, Americans are usually not that divided.
“I don’t think whether you are re-hiring a President or re-hiring a plumber, your thought process is that much different,” says Sosnik. “You ask what kind of job did he do last time, and that decides whether he will be re-hired. When you are 3½ years into a President’s four-year term, people have pretty much made up their minds about what kind of job the President has done.”
Further, those who believe the election will be a blowout point not just to history, but to the special nature of this election. “In 2000, the electorate was erratic because it was not a nationalized election,” Todd says. “But this time the question is not about who invented the Internet, but who invented the Iraq war.”
Sosnik believes this will be a historic election in which voters will want to send a message. “The people have not spoken since Sept. 11 on the direction in which they want the country to go,” he says. “At times like this, people want a decisive course, they want to deliver a mandate. Besides, Bush’s actions are so aggressive, so muscular that the dynamic middle of the country will choose a course either for Bush or for his opponent.”
But what signs do we watch for (since waiting for Election Day itself is just too, too boring?) In this, Sosnik, a Democrat, and Dowd, a Republican, agree: The best indicator on how an incumbent President will do on Election Day is his approval rating.
Two weeks ago, Dowd told me, “The incumbent President usually gets a vote right at his approval rating. If we are at a 51-52 approval (on Election Day), we will win by 1 or 2 points.”
But when Dowd said that, Bush had a Gallup approval rating of 52 percent. Last week, that figure fell to 46 percent, the lowest of the Bush Presidency.
“For an incumbent to be at 46 percent job approval at this point in an election year has historically always spelled defeat” for Presidents since 1950, Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll, said.
And a Pew Research Center poll released last week showed even lower numbers for Bush, with his approval at just 44 percent.
Still, whether this election is going to be decided soon or not until November, whether it will be a runaway or a deadlock, Dowd has advice for everybody on how to handle it when the dust settles.
“Don’t dance in the end zone,” he says, “and don’t cry in your beer.”
Roger Simon can be e-mailed at WriteRoger@aol.com.
I would bet serious money against a Kerry landslide happening this election.
This quote, when read to them by their mommies, will have them peeing their pants in delight at DU. Makes me sick to my stomach.
Huh? What? Excuse me? Did this guy miss a little something called the "2002 Elections"?
If you look at an average in overall polls..all the bad news and Bush has lost only a point...If you look at battleground states Bush has gained slightly...this via Tony Snow who had an interview with the President and some of the advisors.
Says Bush will start talking to the nation on tough issues next week...He and O'Reilly agree people"like" Bush and trust him on national security..that's why he hasn't really tumbled. He needs to talk to the nation.
Owl_Eagle
”Guns Before Butter.”
If all the Democrats promise to keep their mouths shut for a year, I promise I'll vote for them.
why? this prediction is based on the last 4 encumbant election, which were pretty much blowouts. That is equivalent to saying since the last four super bowls were blowouts, so will the next one. What Reagan did against Jimmy Carter has absolutely no bearing on Bush v. Kerry. There are just so many different circumstances. If the elections tell us anything, it is a liberal has a hard time winning an election. But then again, the media pounding Bush on the war may take its toll.
Where's those stats on the huge number of chattering class beltway types that point out that 90% are Democrats. This is gearing up for another, "sometimes the people make mistakes" commentaries reminiscent of the '94 Gingrich revolution. If (R) leaning media types constitute only a 10% minority, of course they will retort with "no it's a Bush landslide."
No more discourse, all cheerleaders now. Welcome to the end of the major media's power on US elections. Everyone dutifully read Pravda, only the "mentally lesser abled" believed it.
The liberal media machine is all pervasive and is everywhere from CNN, ABC, and CBS on TV, your daily newspapers and weekly mags like Time or Newsweek and from the bully pulpuits of our Public Schools. It along with the Democrat political machine has set out to demoralize the voters and pummel the conservative turnout. Marganalizing and demonizing the President is the only way to make "Kerry the Man" look like a viable candidate. Kerry is dead-weight and appeals to less than 25% of the voters in the Country.
“Don’t dance in the end zone,” he says, “and don’t cry in your beer.”
Yeah. Don't be like Al Gore. I agree that this is too rough a campaign to end up close. There will be one big winner and one big loser. And I believe that Kerry is more vulnerable in a negative campaign atmosphere than Bush, by far. Just look at Kerry's state, for goodness sake. You have weddings of sodomy. You have Barney Frank upset about the glowstick sodomies, closely examining the photos. You have Ted Kennedy comparing Bush with Saddam Insane. You have the Boston Globe touting fake porno photos. And you have the Band aid Hero voting against body armor. This is the Month of Massa-pukus.
Somehow I interpret this information differently than he does... I see two people with a lot of charm and charisma winning by large margins, and candidates without that losing. Goes to show data can be used to support any theory that you want.
I don't see Kerry bringing a lot of marginal people to the polls. The democratic 527 groups may be able to fire up enough people with their disinformation campaign. Now that Republicans have decided to use approve of 527's too, maybe they'll raise enough money to provide information to counter the left. That could keep people home (the 'it's too hard to know what to believe' crowd).
It'll be an interesting election year either way...
"The "Mainstream" media will leverage all it's credibility"
That's the big question: how much credibility does the BS media have remaining? Can A-BS, See-BS, N-BS, Pee-BS, and PMS-MSN-BS combined defeat the New Media? [The Crescent News Network probably isn't even a factor anymore.] The problem is that people who trust the New Media are avid seekers of truth. The people who trust the BS media more don't trust it as much, have trouble paying attention, and spend less time getting informed. When people talk in the street, the BS media types are at a serious disadvantage. Any victory they get now is marginal, based on deception which will ultimately be uncovered, sometimes in fewer than 6 hours.
Bush didn't "invent" the Iraq war. The question should be, "Who do you think will FINISH the "War on Terrorism"? (A war that was NOT started over oil, or illegally, or even BY us!)
(I HATE that whole "war on terror" thing, we are fighting "terrorist", not "terror"!)
Owl_Eagle
”Guns Before Butter.”
WE WILL NOT TIRE...WE WILL NOT FALTER...WE WILL NOT FAIL
I hope I'm wrong, but Bush is DONE.
You ARE wrong!
But what happened to the "October surprise."
Didn't Hillary promise us one, and doesn't Albright think the Republicans will pull one out of the hat (like producing OBL)?
I personally think the race will be won at the debates, and I have no doubt about who will appear stronger in the debates.
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