ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[Jacob Kell]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.

In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

The pollster's third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters' minds.

Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry's lead is 57 to 36 percent.

"This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism," Zogby writes.

Zogby's fourth reason: Kerry's a good closer:

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Concluded Zogby: " We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose."

[COEXERJ145]

Boxsmith is nothing but a troll. The sooner he is ZOTTED, the better.

[Cold Heat]

What part about "they are not going to let this be known until election day", did you not understand.

They are not telling the pollers.

I have witnessed this personally and I believe the number that I stated.

If it will hold until November, I feel like the phrase, "Bush democrat" will be used for the first time.

[CharacterCounts]

If it walks like a troll and talks like a troll, it's pretty safe to assume its a troll.

[oceanview]

the latest Gallup poll showed 51% of americans still think we are in recession. as insane as that sounds, it shows you what media bias can do. the high gas prices are effecting that number.

[FA14]

SHUT THE FK UP....My god...with the DU troll BS....I have been a member since before the 2000 race....me and my fiancee (e_seales)....However, my other freep name was *spiked*....because I had written some "bad GWB comments"...concerning how terrible of a campagin he was running early.....(and thus I was banned)...

People like you are such children....debate logic and facts...stop with "when is his sign up date"..."he is a troll"....GROW UP...

[Cold Heat]

The country is more liberal today than it has been since 1964.

The viking Kitties are going to have fun with you!

LOL!

[Vinomori]

Turnout is a factor here and unlike Clinton Kerry does not inspire. He does not excite. Even the black bloc is whining about how he doesn't relate. Lackluster candidates still get their poll votes but the turnout factor is heavily influenced by the X Factor: passion. Kerry has a hard time with this factor. Bush wins.

[Mat_Helm]

This is good news because Zogby is so wrong and biased for democtratic candidates in the last few elections that his predictions are the curse of death. Just ask Al gore.

[arasina]

We're going to PROVE Zogby wrong! This is all just a bunch of pre-election POLL-ution.

[eleni121]

Zogby has taken one bungee jump too many.

Wishing it were so won't make it so jerk!

[TomEwall]

I think Carter's approval numbers were in the low 30's at this point. Bush's are in the upper 40's. The reasons I gave for this election being like '96 were:
1) Polarizing president.
2) Strong economy.
3) 3rd party candidate which hurts incumbant.

Nobody likes Kerry. Lots of people liked Reagan. Similarly Dole was not a candidate people were fond of.

What's keeping the polls close is the war and the media. If Iraq runs badly, I think Kerry has a chance of pulling out a squeaker (although it's not clear what will people will do since defence is a traditionally GOP issue -- they may back Bush anyway. If the economy took an unexpected sour turn, that would certainly be good for Kerry, and is probably his best chance of winning. If the economy goes as projected, 4 to 4.5 GDP increase, continuing to create 250,000+ jobs, etc., it's hard to see Bush losing without Iraq turning into chaos.

[TomEwall]

That's true. I forgot about '76. That was an odd election because all third parties combined didn't even get 1%, so winning the popular vote in and of itself would put you over 50%.

[Cold Heat]

vote for the Eddie Haskell candidate.

That fits pretty good!

[FA14]

But Kerry isn't going to win all Gore States....He is in a fight for his life in PA.....He is in a dead heat in MI and NJ.....WI,MN & WA (all GORE States)...are still close and GWB could pick any one of these off...

As for Kerry winning GWB States...No way is FL (GWB will win FL by 7pts...mark my words)...OH is a toss-up....but WV is polling GWB (and they don't like NE'ers)..

NH...toss up as well..

[boxsmith13]

" think Carter's approval numbers were in the low 30's at this point."

youre right


A also agree thatthe economy will be muvh more visibly better in 3-4 months than it is today

[Wyatt's Torch]

That is one hell of an astute observation on the numbers. The math in my head appears to be right. Well done.

[Zechariah11]

This is the worst thread I have read in months. Who are all these Johnny-Come-Lately "inside-baseball" experts in poll analysis with negative, b*tchy attitudes?

[FA14]

Totally agree with you....that the media are running down the economy nightly....and the GWB camp has done a "terrible" job on setting the premise of the economy (oh wait, that gets you banned on here for saying that...and surly I'm a DU troll)....

Nope...that is just the facts...when over 50% of Americans still think we are in a recession that was OVER 2 1/2 years ago....Someone has done a terrible job at getting the facts out...and that is the GWB camp...

[NeonKnight]

Add 27 for FL, 20 for OH, 4 for NH and 5 for WV gets you to 316....I dont believe Kerry will win any southern states.

I dunno, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Earth changes happen faster nowadays, but last time I looked at a map, Florida was in the south.

[arasina]

With those pick-and-choose standards for polling, they may as well sit back, avoid the expense of an actual survey, and then tell the people who are paying for a poll exactly what they want to believe.