[Vinomori]

Turnout is a factor here and unlike Clinton Kerry does not inspire. He does not excite. Even the black bloc is whining about how he doesn't relate. Lackluster candidates still get their poll votes but the turnout factor is heavily influenced by the X Factor: passion. Kerry has a hard time with this factor. Bush wins.

[TomEwall]

Turnout is important. In all the Likely Voter polls are unmentioned assumptions, having to do with what a Likely Voter is. (Dales has an excellent article about this). The polls which show Kerry doing well are assuming a high turnout. These include Zogby and Rasmussen. The other polls that make more conservative assumptions about turnout show Bush ahead.