ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[Jacob Kell]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.

In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

The pollster's third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters' minds.

Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry's lead is 57 to 36 percent.

"This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism," Zogby writes.

Zogby's fourth reason: Kerry's a good closer:

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Concluded Zogby: " We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose."

[Recovering_Democrat]

Here is hoping Zogby is wrong.

[KellyAdmirer]

Zogby is going off the deep end in his shilling for Kerry. No VP candidate yet, conventions not over, all summer for things to happen - but apparently God speaks to Zogby, and he tells us the truth.

[oolatec]

He also predicted Gore was going to win in 2000.

[Recovering_Democrat]

...and another thing: if the differences between John Kerry and G.W. Bush aren't crystal clear to someone, they ought to see an eye doctor and/or psychiatrist.

C'mon, FREEPers, it is gonna be Bush or Kerry in November. We cannot let Frenchie Ketchup boy win. We just cannot. Give, work, volunteer, and VOTE for G.W.B. Our freedoms depend upon it.

[CWOJackson]

The only way Kerry will win is if the conservative vote is surpress or fractured. We need to keep that in mind when the third party types ratchet up their campaigning for Kerry.

[eureka!]

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent..."

Not in 2000, John. 'Member? The DUI hit piece and 'late trend' that you caught? Some say look for the same this season, from the 'Toon camp against Kerry....

[boxsmith13]

I basically agree with this. Bush poll numbers are awful for an incumbent. I do think that the economy issue will begin to slowly turn Bush's way.

A Kerry Presidency could spell the death knell for the GOP. IT is very possible they would lose two ofthe biggest sticks theyve used to hot DEMS before. One: you cant trust a NE liberal and two: you cant trust the DEMS with national defense. If the GOP losses thesetwo issues, they could eventallu fade away as a political force, mush like Britan's Torrie party.

[SoCal Pubbie]

"His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race."

And in a three way race? Will Ralph Nader be running?

[Smartass]

Isn't Zogby an Arab!!!

[cripplecreek]

I'm a registered Zogby member and the fact that I haven't been invited to take part in their polls for at least 6 months tells me that something is wrong with their poll results.


I registered with Zogy in 2001 and was questioned monthly till about a year ago, since then only about twice.

[CasearianDaoist]

I think that you mean to say that Allah speaks to Zogby.

[boxsmith13]

"He also predicted Gore was going to win in 2000."

Id like to see that, not a poll but an actualy prediction

[TexasGreg]

He predicted Gore in 2000 and that the Democrats would sweep back into power in the Senate AND the House in 2002. He was wrong on all counts.

I'm not sure what's going on with his polling, but he's made some very serious errors the last 4 years.

PRAY -- PRAY HARD -- that he's wrong again. OR, that his polling numbers change.

[bayourod]

"opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place"

So there's no reason to do any future polls.

[harrym]

If Iraq continues to "go south" on us, a new scenario for a Republican victory in November would be thus: Bush declines running for reelection, the convention becomes open, McCain is nominated, all the wind goes out of the Dems sails McCain wins, we continue with sane policies in government instead of unleashing another Demo reign of decay. This would take a lot of guts and sacrifice on the part of the present administration, but it would save us from the Kennedy-Clinton mobsters.

[optik_b]

"He also predicted Gore was going to win in 2000."

Well Gore did win the popular vote.

[boxsmith13]

forget it.

If youve come to that conslusion, Bush has already lost

[TomEwall]

There's only 1 reason that matters, "I don't like Bush. So I'll go out on a limb and predict Kerry to win."

[Cold Heat]

Now I am absolutely sure that Bush will win by a landslide!

Zogby's predictions have always been faulty. His polls are just a bit better.

He is letting his hatred for Bush shine through brightly. I hope all democrats read this! they must believe it to be true.

Then they will stay home on election day, knowing the election is in the bag.

We, on the other hand, cannot afford to do that.

Note to self!..............Even if there is the slightest possibility that I may not be in town on election day, be sure to send absentee ballot and don't forget to sign it!