ELECTION 2004 Zogby: Kerry will win Pollster points to 4 reasons he sees Democrat victory

WorldNetDaily.com ^ | May 10, 2004 | WorldNetDaily.com

[Jacob Kell]

Pollster John Zogby has predicted John Kerry will win the presidential election in November.

In a column yesterday, the researcher laid out four reasons he sees that point to the defeat of President Bush.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Zogby writes. "Sometimes I haven't had a helmet and I have gotten a little scratched. But here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election."

Zogby first notes lackluster poll numbers for Bush. His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race. Also, he points out Kerry is leading by 17 points in the Blue States that voted for Al Gore in 2000, while Bush leads by only 10 points in the Red States that he won four years ago.

"Second, there are very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign," Zogby says. "Historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent. The reasons are not hard to understand: Voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative."

The pollster's third reason stems from reading the numbers surrounding the top three issues on voters' minds.

Thirty percent of voters cite the economy as the No. 1 issue, while just 11 percent cite the war in Iraq. Kerry leads Bush 54 to 35 percent among those who name the economy. Among those citing the war in Iraq, Zogby points out, Kerry's lead is 57 to 36 percent.

"This, of course, is balanced by the 64 percent to 30 percent margin that the president holds over Kerry on fighting the war on terrorism," Zogby writes.

Zogby's fourth reason: Kerry's a good closer:

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Concluded Zogby: " We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarized and, I believe, frozen in place. There are still six months to go and anything can still happen. But as of today, this race is John Kerry's to lose."

[AlbionGirl]

"Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Gov. Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Does he really think this represents a stat?

[NeonKnight]

...and his poll is one of the few that show Kerry ahead. I think Rasmussen has Kerry a little ahead some days and Bush a little ahead on other days...but most show Bush with a 2-4 point lead.

[Cold Heat]

McStain could never win a national election for president.

Not in a million years.

besides, your scenario is nuts.

[TomGuy]

Both GWB and Kerry seem to be maintaining an equal level, moving a couple of points only.

It will be as close as 2000 unless something spectacular happens.

I still see Hillary ending up on the Dem ticket and that could heat things up.

Kerry, other than the 'smooth' ads, seems to avoid TV. He doesn't show well in the snippets of his speeches. He is boring, rambling, empty rhetoric. The more he would be on TV, the more his numbers would decline. Kerry is even less TV-genic than Al Gore was.

[truthandlife]

The only way Kerry will win is if the conservative vote is surpress or fractured.

Secrets of the "Reagan Democrats”

[boxsmith13]

"and his poll is one of the few that show Kerry ahead. I think Rasmussen has Kerry a little ahead some days and Bush a little ahead on other days...but most show Bush with a 2-4 point lead."

yes, but what ALL polls show is Bush is well under 50%. Carter lead Reagan in 1980 for most of the year but he couldnt get above 50%, thus Carter lsot by a landslide. Zogby is right it is Kerry's to lose. The public in 2004 has decided liek in 1980 it doesnt want the incumbent anymore, it jsut hasnt decide it likes the challenger

IF Kerry wins it will portend a shift to the left in American politics

[My2Cents]

"His most recent survey found Kerry leading, 47 to 44 percent in a two-man race."

I can't believe a pollster would be saying these kind of things this far out. There is a CNN/USAToday/Gallup poll out today which shows Bush ahead, in both a two-way, and a three-way race. Zogby is throwing away whatever intergity he has remaining by shilling for Kerry.

[isthisnickcool]

My uncle was all over the Middle East when I was a kid. He said a lot of things about Arabs when he would come home. He said "One day we will regret we ever did business with those people". He also said "Most of the Arab men are queers".

What he stressed more than anything was the Arab concept of "truth". He said "To an Arab whatever he can convience you is the truth is the truth".

Zogby is an Arab.

[My2Cents]

Prediction: On Nov. 3, Zogby will come out with an article explaining four ways in which Kerry blew it.

[princess leah]

Why, then, does President Bush see such HUGE crowds everywhere he goes and Kerry musters just a small, lackluster crowd? The support for Bush is overwhelming, so the Liberals MUST counter attack by proclaiming Kerry's winnability (REMEMBER their motto is Repeat the Lie until the people believe it)....

[Viking2002]

Kerry couldn't get a bump in the polls if it were made public that Bush was ordering detainees to be stuffed into wood chippers. And this putz thinks it's 'Kerry's election to lose'? Looks like Zogby has joined Chris Matthews, Aaron Brown, Dan Blather, and the rest, as an alumni of the Walter Cronkite 'Non-Partisan Partisan' School of Media Punditry.

[VRWC For Truth]

Zogby is doing us a favor. Spit polishing a turd.

[hershey]

Zogby hopes Botoxboy will win, and this analysis of his is nothing but wishful thinking.

[Not A Snowbird]

Zogby is increasingly off his meds.

[TomGuy]

David Corn, Dem/Leftist pundit/commentator, was being interviewed a couple weeks ago on FoxNews. Talking about Kerry, he said, well "the Democrats are stuck with him."

hahahaha

That's how their own pundits see their 'choice' nominee. Kerry creates about as much excitement as a fence post with ground rot.

[FA14]

This is a bold prediction by Zogby....but one that only gets "air" time if it turns out correct...if it doesn't turn out correct..(no one in the main stream will remember or hear about it)...so it is a win / win for Zogby..

Now, on to this election. I really think GWB should win. However, his Performance rating is awful for an incumbent (under 50 is a death sentence)...and his has been under 50 or right near it now for some time (this is not good - no two ways about it).

However, the economy is definitely humming...however GWB is given no positive air-play about this with the national press (NONE..they still talk about a recession on the nightly news)....The GWB camp should be out there touting the economy and the *growth* NIGHTLY...they should be shouting this news out (they aren't...and this isn't a good thing.....You can't convince the American public the economy is good....in Sept/Oct....by then the "premise" is set...)

[boxsmith13]

"Why, then, does President Bush see such HUGE crowds everywhere he goes and Kerry musters just a small, lackluster crowd? The support for Bush is overwhelming, so the Liberals MUST counter attack by proclaiming Kerry's winnability (REMEMBER their motto is Repeat the Lie until the people believe it)...."

Mondale said the biggest crowds he ever got were in the final days of the campaign before he lost 49 states. People arent enthusiactic about Kerry but their vote counts none the less

[John_7Diamonds]

Zogby has been right in the past but I think he has underestimated how poor of a candidate kerry is. Once the debates are aired people will turn to Bush or not vote. I say this because kerry has never given a straight answer on anything and will look more than silly in a debate with Bush.

John

[samadams2000]

I guess his PLO brother finally called in the chit. Like I trust anything this cabal puts out. Its time for someone to blow the whisle on this guy.

[TomGuy]

Partly, too, many people just aren't paying that close attention and won't until after Labor Day. It's still 5 months until the election. Many just aren't that concerned yet.