Posted on 04/27/2004 11:24:45 AM PDT by areafiftyone
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ITS APRIL, SO ITS ACADEMIC Bush 50.39 | Kerry 48.03
April 27, 2004
If I had to predict this election today, Id see this race as I usually see Duke/UNC basketball games. One of three things will happen. Duke will win in a blow-out. Duke will win a close one. Or UNC will win a close one. But no way will UNC win a blow-out. I hope things are different next year, though.
In this election, Bush is Duke and UNC is Kerry. I see no way that Kerry can win a significant electoral victory in November. If history is a guide, Kerry wont get more electoral votes than Clinton did in 1996, when he won 379-159. And Clinton won states where Kerry appears to have little chance Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada and Louisiana.
But even though its early, Kerry shows significant weakness because he has failed to gain any ground during a recent avalanche of bad news for Bush. Some say that Bush has held up his numbers because of the rally-round-the-president factor, but I dont think this is so. Recent polls show Bush has increased his job approval numbers, while Kerrys negatives have risen. And Kerrys negatives arent up because of Bushs ad campaigns, as pollsters have found less disapproval increases in battleground states. Bush can attribute much of his success to Kerrys return to making speeches in public he really does make Dole look like he has passion and Gore look like he has pizzazz.
But its more than Kerrys inability to connect with voters and be liked. In weeks when Bush trailed in the polls, he was rated low on domestic issues. If its the economy, stupid, then Bush will win because he leads on foreign policy. Why? The economy has rebounded and the voters are refusing to let it be talked down. In the recent ABC News poll, Bush outperforms Kerry on Terrorism, Iraq, Same-Sex Marriage, Taxes and Education and is tied or trails Kerry within the margin of error on the Economy, Job creation, Deficit, Prescription Drugs, Social Security and Health Insurance - The bread and butter of recent Democrat campaigns.
And after Dick Morris wrote that incumbents only get 15% of the undecided vote, Democrats probably were encouraged. But, as Ill write in more detail later, Morris analysis is wrong (unless hes comparing April undecideds to November results because those undecided in November polls do not, as a rule, break for the challenger).
So, it does seem that the state of the economy will be very important, as movement in Bushs favor in the economic indicators, and, more importantly, in peoples perception of the economy, has favored Bush in head-to-head matchup.
But, the polls reveal a weakness for Bush. His disapproval ratings remain in the mid-40s. Thats high. Thats a lot of people who either wont vote for him or (if Kerry doesnt close the deal) will stay home. Also, Bush doesnt reach 50 percent in any polls. Thats not good for a President that is well known by the electorate. At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined. This weeks composite result pushes Bush over 50%, but only barely, and only because I allocate the undecided based on job approval and favorability and unfavorability ratings for each candidate. Without the allocation, the composite is Bush 44.8, Kerry 41.5, Undecided 12.1. Thats a big undecided number. If Morris is right and April undecided voters break 85/15 for the challenger, then Kerry wins 51.8-44.8. A huge victory that makes him President: Kerry 324 | Bush 214. And now, the data.
First, a methodology change. We now use Rasmussen state-by-state polls and we average state polls, giving greater weight to more recent polls.
This Weeks Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
Investors Business Daily /Christian Science Monitor
Iowa Electronic Market
Last Weeks Polls
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
ABCNews/Washington Post
Zogby
Iowa Electronic Market
Since last weeks polls:
Bush State Gains (margin of lead in parenthesis)
None
Kerry State Gains (margin of lead in parenthesis)
Iowa (0.9)
Battleground States
Arkansas (Bush 4.8)
Florida (Bush 2.3)
Iowa (Kerry 0.9)
Maine (Kerry 4.4)
Michigan (Kerry 4.7)
Missouri (Bush 4.1)
New Hampshire (Bush 1.2)
New Mexico (Bush 0.7)
Ohio (Bush 2.1)
Oregon (Bush 1.3)
Pennsylvania (Bush 1.5)
Washington (Kerry 3.2)
West Virginia (Bush 4.4)
Wisconsin (Bush 1.9)
Composite History
Date |
Bush |
Kerry |
9-Mar |
49.0 |
49.1 |
16-Mar |
50.3 |
48.4 |
23-Mar |
49.2 |
48.6 |
30-Mar |
49.7 |
47.5 |
6-Apr |
48.8 |
49.0 |
13-Apr |
48.9 |
48.9 |
20-Apr |
49.83 |
47.33 |
27-Apr |
50.39 |
48.03 |
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Electoral Vote Prediction History
|
With Toss Ups |
Without Toss Ups |
|||
Date |
Bush |
Kerry |
Toss |
Bush |
Kerry |
9-Mar |
133 |
189 |
216 |
247 |
291 |
16-Mar |
199 |
86 |
253 |
338 |
200 |
23-Mar |
184 |
110 |
244 |
338 |
200 |
30-Mar |
194 |
110 |
234 |
335 |
203 |
6-Apr |
198 |
182 |
158 |
278 |
260 |
13-Apr |
198 |
199 |
141 |
299 |
239 |
20-Apr |
243 |
195 |
100 |
328 |
210 |
27-Apr |
205 |
178 |
155 |
321 |
217 |
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The States
Margin of Lead
(+Bush | -Kerry)
Alabama |
17.1% |
Alaska |
31.4% |
Arizona |
8.5% |
Arkansas |
4.8% |
California |
-10.3% |
Colorado |
9.2% |
Connecticut |
-17.8% |
Delaware |
-11.4% |
District of Columbia |
-75.9% |
Florida |
2.3% |
Georgia |
14.2% |
Hawaii |
-17.8% |
Idaho |
42.1% |
Illinois |
-10.3% |
Indiana |
16.5% |
Iowa |
-1.0% |
Kansas |
22.5% |
Kentucky |
17.2% |
Louisiana |
12.0% |
Maine |
-4.4% |
Maryland |
-9.9% |
Massachusetts |
-24.5% |
Michigan |
-4.6% |
Minnesota |
-6.7% |
Mississippi |
19.2% |
Missouri |
4.2% |
Montana |
26.3% |
Nebraska |
30.6% |
Nevada |
8.2% |
New Hampshire |
1.3% |
New Jersey |
-9.4% |
New Mexico |
0.6% |
New York |
-20.3% |
North Carolina |
11.7% |
North Dakota |
29.9% |
Ohio |
2.2% |
Oklahoma |
24.6% |
Oregon |
1.3% |
Pennsylvania |
1.5% |
Rhode Island |
-28.5% |
South Carolina |
18.0% |
South Dakota |
25.7% |
Tennessee |
9.5% |
Texas |
23.2% |
Utah |
42.2% |
Vermont |
-9.6% |
Virginia |
6.1% |
Washington |
-3.2% |
West Virginia |
4.3% |
Wisconsin |
1.9% |
Wyoming |
42.6% |
Discuss this analysis on Federal Review or at Free Republic or on Democratic Underground.
But at this stage of the game, I think things are closer EV wise. But then where mine is a snapshot of where we are now, I believe this is more of a projection of where things will be if things continue as they are now. Those are two slightly different things.
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