Federal Review Composite Poll - Bush 321 Kerry 217

Federal Review ^ | 4/27/04

[areafiftyone]

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IT’S APRIL, SO IT’S ACADEMIC  Bush 50.39 | Kerry 48.03
April 27, 2004

If I had to predict this election today, I’d see this race as I usually see Duke/UNC basketball games.  One of three things will happen.  Duke will win in a blow-out.  Duke will win a close one.  Or UNC will win a close one.  But no way will UNC win a blow-out.  I hope things are different next year, though.

 

In this election, Bush is Duke and UNC is Kerry.  I see no way that Kerry can win a significant electoral victory in November.  If history is a guide, Kerry won’t get more electoral votes than Clinton did in 1996, when he won 379-159.  And Clinton won states where Kerry appears to have little chance – Tennessee, Arizona, Nevada and Louisiana.

But even though it’s early, Kerry shows significant weakness because he has failed to gain any ground during a recent avalanche of bad news for Bush.  Some say that Bush has held up his numbers because of the rally-round-the-president factor, but I don’t think this is so.  Recent polls show Bush has increased his job approval numbers, while Kerry’s negatives have risen.  And Kerry’s negatives aren’t up because of Bush’s ad campaigns, as pollsters have found less disapproval increases in battleground states.  Bush can attribute much of his success to Kerry’s return to making speeches in public – he really does make Dole look like he has passion and Gore look like he has pizzazz.

But it’s more than Kerry’s inability to connect with voters and be liked.  In weeks when Bush trailed in the polls, he was rated low on domestic issues.  If it’s the economy, stupid, then Bush will win because he leads on foreign policy.  Why?  The economy has rebounded and the voters are refusing to let it be talked down.  In the recent ABC News poll, Bush outperforms Kerry on Terrorism, Iraq, Same-Sex Marriage, Taxes and Education and is tied or trails Kerry within the margin of error on the Economy, Job creation, Deficit, Prescription Drugs, Social Security and Health Insurance - The bread and butter of recent Democrat campaigns.

And after Dick Morris wrote that incumbents only get 15% of the undecided vote, Democrats probably were encouraged.  But, as I’ll write in more detail later, Morris’ analysis is wrong (unless he’s comparing April undecideds to November results – because those undecided in November polls do not, as a rule, break for the challenger).

So, it does seem that the state of the economy will be very important, as movement in Bush’s favor in the economic indicators, and, more importantly, in people’s perception of the economy, has favored Bush in head-to-head matchup.

But, the polls reveal a weakness for Bush.  His disapproval ratings remain in the mid-40s.  That’s high.  That’s a lot of people who either won’t vote for him or (if Kerry doesn’t close the deal) will stay home.   Also, Bush doesn’t reach 50 percent in any polls.  That’s not good for a President that is well known by the electorate.  At least Kerry can argue that he is un- or poorly defined.  This week’s composite result pushes Bush over 50%, but only barely, and only because I allocate the undecided based on job approval and favorability and unfavorability ratings for each candidate.  Without the allocation, the composite is Bush 44.8, Kerry 41.5, Undecided 12.1.  That’s a big undecided number.  If Morris is right and April undecided voters break 85/15 for the challenger, then Kerry wins 51.8-44.8.  A huge victory that makes him President:  Kerry 324 | Bush 214.  And now, the data.

First, a methodology change.  We now use Rasmussen state-by-state polls and we average state polls, giving greater weight to more recent polls.

This Week’s Polls
FoxNews / Opinion Dynamics
Investor’s Business Daily /Christian Science Monitor
Iowa Electronic Market

Last Week’s Polls
CNN/USA Today/Gallup
ABCNews/Washington Post
Zogby
Iowa Electronic Market

 

 

Since last week’s polls:

 

Bush State Gains (margin of lead in parenthesis)
None

 

Kerry State Gains (margin of lead in parenthesis)
Iowa (0.9)

 

 

Battleground States
Arkansas (Bush 4.8)

Florida (Bush 2.3)
Iowa (Kerry 0.9)
Maine (Kerry 4.4)
Michigan (Kerry 4.7)
Missouri (Bush 4.1)
New Hampshire (Bush 1.2)
New Mexico (Bush 0.7)
Ohio (Bush 2.1)
Oregon (Bush 1.3)
Pennsylvania (Bush 1.5)
Washington (Kerry 3.2)
West Virginia (Bush 4.4)
Wisconsin (Bush 1.9)

 

Composite History

Date	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	49.0	49.1
16-Mar	50.3	48.4
23-Mar	49.2	48.6
30-Mar	49.7	47.5
6-Apr	48.8	49.0
13-Apr	48.9	48.9
20-Apr	49.83	47.33
27-Apr	50.39	48.03

 

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Electoral Vote Prediction History

	With Toss Ups			Without Toss Ups
Date	Bush	Kerry	Toss	Bush	Kerry
9-Mar	133	189	216	247	291
16-Mar	199	86	253	338	200
23-Mar	184	110	244	338	200
30-Mar	194	110	234	335	203
6-Apr	198	182	158	278	260
13-Apr	198	199	141	299	239
20-Apr	243	195	100	328	210
27-Apr	205	178	155	321	217

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The States
Margin of Lead
 (+Bush | -Kerry)

Alabama	17.1%
Alaska	31.4%
Arizona	8.5%
Arkansas	4.8%
California	-10.3%
Colorado	9.2%
Connecticut	-17.8%
Delaware	-11.4%
District of Columbia	-75.9%
Florida	2.3%
Georgia	14.2%
Hawaii	-17.8%
Idaho	42.1%
Illinois	-10.3%
Indiana	16.5%
Iowa	-1.0%
Kansas	22.5%
Kentucky	17.2%
Louisiana	12.0%
Maine	-4.4%
Maryland	-9.9%
Massachusetts	-24.5%
Michigan	-4.6%
Minnesota	-6.7%
Mississippi	19.2%
Missouri	4.2%
Montana	26.3%
Nebraska	30.6%
Nevada	8.2%
New Hampshire	1.3%
New Jersey	-9.4%
New Mexico	0.6%
New York	-20.3%
North Carolina	11.7%
North Dakota	29.9%
Ohio	2.2%
Oklahoma	24.6%
Oregon	1.3%
Pennsylvania	1.5%
Rhode Island	-28.5%
South Carolina	18.0%
South Dakota	25.7%
Tennessee	9.5%
Texas	23.2%
Utah	42.2%
Vermont	-9.6%
Virginia	6.1%
Washington	-3.2%
West Virginia	4.3%
Wisconsin	1.9%
Wyoming	42.6%

 

Discuss this analysis on Federal Review or at Free Republic or on Democratic Underground.

 

[litany_of_lies]

Presidentelect.org is guesstimating 286-252 Bush. It has Oregon and PA in the Kerry camp, which I think is probably more correct than Federal Review.

Certainly these guesstimates should be enough to prevent overconfidence.

[TommyDale]

Nice post!

[Phantom Lord]

Didn't Federal Review predict a greater than 100 vote electoral college victory for Bush in 2000?

[TheBigB]

Interesting. Dales, you're our resident EC guy. What say you?

[Darth Reagan]

Over 100 EV victory? In 2000? You must be nuts....or the prediction was made before the DUI flap caused Bush's numbers to plummet at the last minute!

I can't imagine the intelligent prognosticators at Federal Review making any such error.

[Dales]

It is possible. I agree that most of the battleground states will move together, and I also believe that the electoral vote margin will be bigger this time than last (although for who I think is still up in the air, but I like our chances).

But at this stage of the game, I think things are closer EV wise. But then where mine is a snapshot of where we are now, I believe this is more of a projection of where things will be if things continue as they are now. Those are two slightly different things.

[11th Commandment]

Remarkably, with the election 6 months away, poll after poll shows that the amount of undecided voters is low- anywhere from 2% to 8%. This shows how polarized the country is. So which poll do we turn to? The common wisdom is that we turn to Zogby because he got it right in 1996 and in 2000.

The problem is that Zogby got lucky in 2000 because he predicted (actually guessed) that more democrats would show up to the polls that republicans. Thanks to a last minute voter push by the Gore Camp in states that ironically he was predicted to take anyway, Gore took the popular vote. Florida turned out closer because the panhandle vote was light after the networks “predicted” Gore was going to win the state before the polls closed.

Luckily for Zogby, these two unpredicted factors propelled him to pollster god. Dick Morris and others love to tout how Zogby got it right in 2000, and we should only trust him. Since Zogby has the current presidential race at a tie, Morris states this is a problem for Bush. But what about the 2002 election?

Not to be outdone, Rove and the RNC revamped the grass root get out the vote for 2002. This was disastrous for (the democrats and) Zogby who was showing on November 4th, 2002, tight senate races. Dick Morris even cited Zogby in his column, (again as the only reliable source because, after all, he got the 2000 election right) stating, “… that the democrats had turned the tide”. This time Zogby’s prediction (actually, it’s a guess) that more Democrats would turn out to vote than Republicans was wrong. He blew it; Morris got it wrong in 2002.

So obviously Dick Morris dethroned Zogby as the pollster god and would not rely on his polling data that favors more democratic voters than republicans for the current presidential race? (That’s a rhetorical question, no need to answer.)

The lesson learned is that with the country narrowly divided with a few undecided, it is going to come down to who can get out the vote. The party can increase turnout to the slightest degree can spell victory. What pollsters should be telling us is who is more motivated to vote this November.

[Darth Reagan]

I'm not sure that this is a projection of where things will be in November, but I think it will do a good job of showing overall trends as we get close to November.

But you are right, it is a snapshot, but it isn't exactly a snapshot. As with any such analysis, accuracy will increase with time because more data will be available.

[JohnnyZ]

It's spelled Dook.

[Darth Reagan]

You are right. It is spelled Dook. And Dook Sucks, by the way. I knew I shouldn't put on airs. Is Deng really going pro?

[ssantomaur]

This is where he states the election is Now. I check This Site along with Dale's and Election projections (this has not been updated in a while).

Here's what I think. Zogby got it WRONG in 2000. THe last minute DUI and the lack of GOP Get out the vote made his prediction correct. Since then there are no more DUI's in Bush's record and the GOP has sucessfully implemented their 72 hour program in 2002 and will repeat it this year.

Lieberman practically moving to FL made it close due to ethic pride from the NY transplanted Jews. This will not happen in 2004 and Jeb won huge.

I'm predicting Bush get 325+. I may revise this based on how the campaigns are being run, but this is where I think the election stands now.

[marblehead17]

He is entering the draft. No agent. If top 5, he's gone. Whooo Hooo.

[RetiredArmy]

I continue to be at a total, staggering loss, as to why any American would want to vote for this guy Kerry. I am totally blown away that people could find anything at all positive or good in him to vote for! At a total loss.

[areafiftyone]

The people that want to vote for Kerry are not exactly fans of him. Actually from what I have been reading on the liberal forums they are really voting for ABB (Anybody But Bush). So they would rather have a person that they don't like in the White House for 4 years rather Bush because their hatred is sooo pathetic. The democrats screwed up royally in the primaries when they settled for Kerry. Now they are stuck with him and he is screwing them back royally. He is not going to win and I think the reality is starting to hit them now. When you vote out of hatred you make a big mistake.