2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 26, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	98.0	9	0
Alaska	95.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	12.5	0	55
Colorado	82.0	9	0
Connecticut	12.0	0	7
Delaware	20.0	0	3
District of Columbia	0.5	0	3
Florida	60.0	27	0
Georgia	92.0	15	0
Hawaii	8.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	13.0	0	21
Indiana	88.0	11	0
Iowa	40.0	0	7
Kansas	93.0	6	0
Kentucky	88.0	8	0
Louisiana	86.0	9	0
Maine	15.0	0	4
Maryland	13.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	37.0	0	17
Minnesota	36.0	0	10
Mississippi	98.0	6	0
Missouri	61.0	11	0
Montana	92.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	14.0	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	10.0	0	31
North Carolina	82.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	56.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	38.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	56.0	21	0
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	89.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	83.0	11	0
Texas	97.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	5.0	0	3
Virginia	88.0	13	0
Washington	24.0	0	11
West Virginia	55.0	5	0
Wisconsin	50.0	10	0
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		314	224

[sanchmo]

^4L8R

[Gritty]

Here are the "Bush" states which are under 60, and considered leaning, but possibly a toss-up...

New Mexico.... 57.0% 5 votes
Ohio................ 56.0% 20 votes
Pennsylvania... 56.0% 21 votes
West Virginia.. 55.0% 5 votes
Wisconsin....... 50.0% 10 votes

Here are the "Kerry" states above 40, and considered leaning, but possibly a toss-up...

...None

Bush needs to lose a combination of 35 electoral votes from the above states to lose in a sqeaker. This shows a very close election, right now, IMHO.

[Bonaparte]

"... I am very surprised..."

You shouldn't be, Yehuda...

ACU Lifetime Scores (West Virginia)

Reps

Capito 73
Mollohan 50
Rahall 20

Senators

Byrd 31
Rockefeller 10

That averages to a score of 37.

[CedarDave]

Kerry's implosion is very bad news. He can still be replaced before the convention.

I agree. Rush was pushing today for Zogby to poll Democrats on who they would vote for if the primary season was just starting instead of already finished. If we torpedeo him before the convention, we may get someone not as easy to skewer or worse (i.e. Hillary!! [shudder])

[TomEwall]

Things have changed a lot today. This is the busiest I've seen tradesports since I've been watching it:
1) W.V. +10 to 65 (0.5)
2) WI +5 to 55 (0.5)
3) OH +4 to 60 (0.8)
4) PN +4 to 60 (0.84)
5) Iowa +3 to 40 (0.21)
6) MO +3.9 to 64.9 (0.429)
7) MN -3 to 33 (-0.3)
8) NV -3 to 67 (-0.15)

So that would raise
the 284.48 number to 287.269 doing the weighted average (baring math errors) and the E.V. without weighted averages to 314.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Bush needs to lose a combination of 35 electoral votes from the above states to lose in a sqeaker."

---

No, he would need to lose a combination of 46 electoral votes in those states to lose in a squeaker (with WI, Bush is at 314 EVs). If its 269-269, Bush will get elected by the House.

Basically, Kerry would need to carry both Ohio and Pennsylvania to beat Bush.

[AuH2ORepublican]

I meant Kerry would need to carry both OH and PA, plus another 5 EVs (such as WV or NM) to beat Bush.

[Momaw Nadon]

Things have changed a lot today. This is the busiest I've seen tradesports since I've been watching it.

I went back to the site and noticed the same thing.

What's up with that?

[TomEwall]

Revising this to present:

"Bush states under 60"
New Mexico.... 57.0% 5 votes
Wisconsin.... 55.0% 10 votes

"Kerry states over 40"
Iowa.... 43

To lose a squeaker, Kerry has to reclaim WI, PN, and NM, as well as bring over FL or OH.

[TomEwall]

I don't know. I haven't been able to figure out what drives the action. It doesn't seem to be particularly sensitive to either news or polls. So I suppose some traders decided to make some trades for whatever reason.

[Gritty]

(Bush) would need to lose a combination of 46 electoral votes

Oops! Sorry. Math was never one of my strong subjects.:(

[DM1]

"Bush has to win Ohio. No republican has ever won the election without Ohio I believe."
you are correct that none up until now has won it however I firmly believe that this can be compensated by winning PA

[Future Useless Eater]

Well of course you are right about the colors IN GENERAL,

but we have all those "Bush Country" maps from last time.

(plus RED stands out,
while blue is a receeding color)

[Future Useless Eater]

Kerry 90+

Kerry 80+

Kerry 70+

Kerry 60+

Kerry 50+

Bush 50+

Bush 60+

Bush 70+

Bush 80+

Bush 90+

It's just my 2cents,
and it would match the Bush Country maps

[Checkers]

"I love it when a plan comes together."

I pity da fool.

[Checkers]

not

[Momaw Nadon]

Don't you have the colors backwards?

I know that RED should go with commies, but I think precedent
has already been forged in stone.

Dubya won the "red states" in the last election.

Red=Right=Rational=Reliable=Republican
bLue(aka Lavender)=Leftist=Loony=Liberal=Lying=>democRAT

Dales, do you have an opinion on the colors?

[Dales]

Red is the color of international socialism. The math is easy from there.

[Momaw Nadon]

"but we have all those "Bush Country" maps from last time."

In 2000, RED for Bush was chosen by ABCNBCCBSCNNPMSNBC.

If I were in charge of the networks in 2000, I would have chosen BLUE for Bush.

Perhaps another way to look at it and also be consistent is to have the incumbent be blue.

Plus, BLUE is my favorite color. :^)