Posted on 03/21/2004 7:05:05 AM PST by CPT Clay
The Senate races are now in high gear and it is time for us all to focus. Jack Ryan won the Primary in Illinois last night, and we have a real shot there. As we saw in Colorado, things are still in flux, but I thought I'd give you my take on 10 Senate races that I hope you have at the top of the radar screen. Print this out for future reference. VOLPAC will be taking a position on these races as we get through the Primaries. We are strongly supporting all of the Republican incumbents right now.
1. Alaska (R - incumbent)
Lisa Murkowski (R) - (incumbent) vs. Tony Knowles (D) - (former Governor)
Recent polling shows its a dead heat. Murkowskis challenge is to overcome the nepotism allegations (Her dad preceded her as Senator) by becoming a credible US Senator in her own right. This race is critical to us.
2. Colorado (R - open)
Many considering, including . . .
Jane Norton (R) (current Lieutenant Governor); Bob Schaffer (R) (former congressman); Rutt Bridges (D) - challenger (self funding founder of liberal think tank); Congressman Mark Udall (D)
Primary date: August 10
Senator Ben Campbells retirement makes this a competitive race. Neither Republican nor Democrat candidate is certain at this point. Dems have a multi-millionaire candidate. Colorado leans Republican but it could be a swing state in the Presidential race.
3. South Dakota (D - challenger)
John Thune (R) - (former Congressman and 2002 Senate nominee) vs. Senator Tom Daschle (D)
This is the national race of the year. Its a dead heat. Daschle has spent nearly $1 million on television since last April in South Dakota and cant move his ballot number past 50%. This race will remain close, within the margin of error, through Election Day.
4. North Carolina (D - open)
Congressman Richard Burr (R) vs. Erskine Bowles (D) - (2002 Senate nominee and former COS to Bill Clinton)
This race remains within the margin of error. Bowles record is Bill Clintons record which is unpopular in NC. Bowles has the ability to self fund. He spent $7 million of his own money to lose to Elizabeth Dole in 2002. Burr is among the hardest working candidates running for the Senate this cycle.
5. South Carolina (D - open)
David Beasley (R) - (former Governor); Congressman Jim DeMint (R); Charlie Condon (R) - (former Attorney General); Inez Tenenbaum (D) - (State Superintendent of Education)
Primary date: June 8
Expect Beasley and DeMint to face-off in the run-off. Beasley has a lead today because of name ID and DeMint is well organized and well funded to be competitive in the run-off. Tenenbaum will be competitive but will be hard pressed to compete with the giant Republican turnout for President Bush on Election Day.
6. Georgia (D - open)
Congressman Johnny Isakson (R); Congressman Mac Collins (R); Herman Cain (R - Godfathers Pizza owner); State Senator Mary Squires (D); State Senator Nadine Thomas(D)
Primary date: July 20
This should be a pick-up for Republicans. Democrats have struggled to recruit anyone to run given increasing Republican dominance in Georgia. President Bush won Georgia handily (55 percent to 43 percent) in 2000 and the state has become even more Republican since then.
7. Florida (D - open)
Secretary Mel Martinez (R); Bill McCollum (R) - (former Congressman and 2000 Senate nominee); Johnny Byrd (R) - (Speaker of the State House); Daniel Webster (R) - (State Senate leader); Bob Smith (R) - (former US Senator from NH); Betty Castor (D) - (former President of the University of Southern Florida); Congressman Peter Deutsch (D); Mayor Alex Panelas (D) - (Mayor of Miami-Dade)
Primary date: August 31
The Republican Primary race is proving to be competitive with McCollum leading in public polling because of name ID, but Martinez is moving up. The Democrat Primary race is dominated by Deutschs money and Castors populist appeal. In the end Deutschs money will out last Castors appeal.
8. Oklahoma (R - open)
Kirk Humphreys (R) - (former Mayor of OK City, endorsed by Senators Inhofe and Nickles); Tom Coburn (R) - (physician and former member of Congress); Congressman Brad Carson (D) - Likely Democrat nominee
Primary date: July 27, run-off in August.
Republican Primary battle is expected to be bloody. The Democrats have high hopes for a pick-up in OK but the cards are stacked against them as the President will win OK by over 15 points.
9. Louisiana (D - open)
Congressman David Vitter (R) - (anointed candidate); John Kennedy (D) - (State Treasurer); Congressman Chris John (D)
Its likely that no single candidate will get to 50% on Election Day. Thus, were preparing for a run-off in December. Vitter leads in the three-way ballot today and Vitter is leading Kennedy. Kennedy was expected to be the favored Democrat candidate in the style of John Breaux but so far has not cleared the field.
10. Washington (D - challenger)
Congressman George Nethercutt (R) vs. Senator Patty Murray (D)
Another big one. Patty Murrays re-elect has slipped to 39% and we consider it to be the lowest of any Democrat incumbent running in the country. Nethercutt has assembled an A-team to run his campaign. Murrays image as Mom in tennis shoes has disappeared and she is left to defend an anti-military, anti-tax cuts and anti-Washington voting record.
Please return to the first paragraph of this email and let me know your specific interests.
I will email tomorrow and Friday as well.
Bill Frist
I think the nepotism allegations are a little more than just "allegations." After all, not only did she succeed her father as senator, but he as governor appointed her to the position!
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